to not understand what Sue Perkins is referring to?

[avrilpoissons]

"I see Britain’s third best eugenicist has been using the crayons again...."

WTF is she on about? It's obviously something super intelligent but it's beyond me.

Jeez- so easy for slebs to take things out of context for their own ends-

read the whole article!

I agree with SummersMahoosiveClipOnFringe. Best we can do is try to slow the rate of transmission and encourage the less aggressive of the 2 strains of Covid-19 to permeate while we wait on a vaccine. People infected with the less aggressive strain tend to have mild symptoms, or none at all, and the antibodies they gain offer some protection against the more aggressive strain.
We can't stop people dying, not from this nor any of the other awful illnesses out there. All we can do is try to contain it to a certain degree so that the medics have the time and equipment to focus on the people they need to.
Does it warrant shutting down the country for up to 6 months and causing increased poverty, illness and death that way? There are arguments for and against, but certainly I would like to see a relaxation of the lockdown in the near future, with increased social mindfulness and support for the elderly and immune impaired, so that we can get back to some semblance of normality.

Context: PhD educated scientist posting

NICE use QALYs all the time to make decisions about treatments- why not now?

Dominic Cummings?
Toby Young?
That bloke (odd ball/weirdo) that was employed by conservative HQ for a couple days?

Did she say who 1 & 2 are?

Why can't people understand the simple diagrams and information.

There will be C20000 death because of the measure that'll be in place for the next 6 months minimum.

Without those measures mortality rates would be much much higher. C250k as a minimum is the projection.

The thing is who is to say that a 65 year old should be sacrificed to save the life of a 30 year old.
What if the 30 year old has never worked and has 6 kids. What if the 65 year old is still working and paying tax. Does that change things?
Are shams worth less than non shams? Or should they be spared.
Anyone with a disability or illness which is a burden to the tax payer, should
they be sacrificed first?

Glowcat Tue 31-Mar-20 19:19:33
I suspect he was jealous that Covid-19 was getting all the negative attention.

Mmmm- Neil Ferguson has form for modelling doomsday scenarios, and not without criticism:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

Where are you getting your figures HannahStern? You do realise that there is no scientific consensus whatsoever?

Maybe you don’t, so let me help.

No society anywhere has the vaguest idea what the true mortality rate of this virus is, because the general populace has not been tested. Yet.

You should also bear in mind that COVID-19 has become a notifiable disease in the way that seasonal flu is not.

Example - deaths from COPD tend to be higher in the winter months. Why? Colds & flu are known to exacerbate the condition.

Flu & rhinovirus is not tested for routinely so it may or may not be an exacerbating factor in many deaths every year. It’s never listed on a death certificate because it’s not tested for.

Right now someone coming into hospital with respiratory distress who is known to suffer from COPD WILL be tested for COVID-19 and if found to be a carrier will have it listed on their death certificate whether it killed them or not.

They may have died WITH it rather than OF it, and no actual distinction is being made.

This is a problem, and not one that will be solved until we have effective & reliable testing of the populace to get a handle on exactly what mortality rate we are dealing with.

If 2m people are already infected in the UK with 0.001% requiring hospital treatment (which is quite possible) then things start to look very different indeed, right?

I am nor suggesting we stop lockdown - I don’t know. Neither do you or anyone else. We can’t know until the data is in.

But to try and suggest that journalists like Toby Young are not even allowed to question the governments stance is outrageous. Freedom of thought & expression matters to some of us, if not to you.

Without more testing being possible, all the modelling of this is speculative. Small changes in variables can lead to big differences in conclusions because of the compounding nature of the contagion.

Once we have more testing and more data, we can make more informed decisions. If this turns out to be a massive over-reaction which will lead to more deaths on the other end due to alcoholism, drug addiction, violence, poor longterm health, etc. we can course correct.

I do agree that this could be a massive over-reaction causing more harm than good. At the moment, we don't really know. But, a decent debate, and journalist questioning things and asking uncomfortable questions seems like a very good thing.

I keep saying this for context, but 250,000 people in the UK died from flu, despite us having vaccinations.

When did this happen Devlesko ? do you have a link to the WHO figures ?

for all those focusing on the MH and stress implications of the lockdown and how it would be better for (other, the elderly, disabled/at riska and lots of HCPs doing their jobs though today a 19 year old) people to die without the lockdown, I keep asking about the costs and benefits of lockdown and not so, to be clear, do you think there won't be MH and stress from more people dying earlier without the lockdown. I could be wrong but in my experience, the MH effects of bereavement are pretty fucking terrible so rather than just saying 'we're stealing our children's future', it's better for others to die than for my MH to suffer from the lockdown, there will be stress, MH and financial implications from no lockdown and the excess deaths of other people, including the HCPs who will die from lack of PPE. but if you're all, I'm alright Jack, then do have a think when you or your DC need ITU for a RTA or a fall given it will be full. Guess what, we had an ITU before COVID and it was usually pretty full.

Critical thinking does seem in short supply on many mumsnet threads about covid19

frumpety
How old is he ? He just comes across as 'A man of a certain age' , you know the type , see you driving down the road and step out into the road and saunter across whilst studiously looking in the opposite direction. All the men that do this are usually in the 55-65 demographic, they know they can't outrun you on foot or beat you in a fist fight, so they get their kicks by trying to out twat the universe grin

I keep saying this for context, but 250,000 people in the UK died from flu, despite us having vaccinations.

Where is this?’ It says 250,000 in the WORLD, not the UK, on the WHO website.

I’ll laugh like a drain if he dies. Fact

Ok Toby, but you have to choose the ones to die.

But to try and suggest that journalists like Toby Young are not even allowed to question the governments stance is outrageous. Freedom of thought & expression matters to some of us, if not to you.

I completely agree.

It's the job of the press to ask difficult questions.

Compulsory job in a free society.

You don't have to agree - but we all have to protect our right to say and hear stuff that isn't about the Kardashians or football.

What a dicksplash of a man

It's interesting how inarticulate his detractors appear to be :)

I'm not for or against Toby Young but definitely in support of free speech and sensible debate.

Could argue it's the job of the press to ask difficult questions though I was Toby asking tough questions or just asserting one sided positions as fact?

Species “ Ok Toby, but you have to choose the ones to die.”

He probably would.

His comments are shocking as we should value the lives of our citizens over the concerns of big businesses. If the most wealthy in our society made a one off corona payment, which would not change their very wealthy status, we could come through this much more smoothly.
If we don’t have lockdown we are looking at a shocking number of medical professionals dying. They don’t fit in his theory at all. These are young, healthy people who have studied hard and have chosen to work to help others. We are in lockdown for them too.