to not understand what Sue Perkins is referring to?

[avrilpoissons]

"I see Britain’s third best eugenicist has been using the crayons again...."

WTF is she on about? It's obviously something super intelligent but it's beyond me.

frumpety I personally think men are an at risk group for multiple reasons. Men, as a rule NAM of course don't think about their health as much as women - more likely to feel they won't be infected and take "risks" with contact, flouting rules etc. Less likely to wash their hands than women. Also more likely to be obese /smokers/drinkers/have heart problems- see not taking care of their health as above.

There is also an argument about the protective factors of Oestrogen and about how mothers being main carers for children has possibly boosted their immune systems.

To be fair my hopes and dreams might be a bit low brow compared to yours , I would like someone to fix the kick board in my kitchen and at least one member of my household to think about bringing the recycling boxes back to the house once in a blue moon, on high days and holidays or even once before I die !

This sort of crisis brings out the extremes. There is a continuum from fascism to anarchy. People on the extremes fall into one of two camps:
Fascists: Easter Eggs are NOT essential; no walking your dog more than 1/3 kilometre from your house!
Anarchists: Let’s hope we are locked down long enough to break capitalism!

Those of us in the middle would like some pragmatism and aren’t looking for a radical shift to the Left or Right.

Those of us in the middle would like some pragmatism and aren’t looking for a radical shift to the Left or Right

It is interesting to see how people value the role of Government and the State when the shit hits the fan.

It seems intensely dim to compare this virus to the flu when the flu doesn’t require the Excel Centre to be turned into a massive intensive care unit. It may end up like the flu - after enough people have had it and we’ve developed a vaccine. Until then, only a fuckwit thinks it’s “ just like the flu.” As for establishing how contagious it is and what the death rate is - unlike cjd, where modelling was based on the extreme unknown and an illness that could take decades to develop, this virus spreads very rapidly and we have some useful data from cruise ships and other countries, so we have a far better idea on possible case numbers than we ever did on cjd. We also have the fact the Italian healthcare system is not able to cope, and their victims are currently being flown to other countries to help out.

tttigress what do you mean ? can you explain ? Do you think we should just let this virus run its course ? regardless ? or do you think there are other experts we should be taking note of ?

What I mean is, about 500,000 people a year die in the UK anually, this March is no worse than previous years.

What actually is bad for your health is being unemployed for years on end, suicide, homelessness etc. Also if you are undergoing chemotherapy and it is stopped, that is also quite bad for your health!

The government cannot just magic this money into existence (if it prints it will have a negative effect).

What we we should do is put the elderly and vulnerable in total, total lock down, and then everyone else continues to contribute to the economy.

If I recall correctly, the tiresome Mr Young was fulsome in print in expressing his own grief for the death of his father. I expect he was a different kind of old person though.

tttigress - but drs and nurses are vulnerable. We can’t put them into lockdown... And why put the elderly into lockdown if your argument is they are likely to have poor quality lives for only another year or two anyway, so will probably be dying with covid 19 rather than of it, anyway?...

Toby Young is a eugenicist and self styled provocateur. His "few hundred thousand elderly people" fits none of the modelling, or the experience we have had to date

Crap. He’s an editor & commentator. He’s commenting. What’s wrong with that?

The modelling is necessarily relying on assumptions in the absence of verified data.

Nothing is certain.

Young people with well-managed diseases die of colds and flu every year. Young people, entirely healthy, die of flu every year.

Until the data is in (and it’s not yet) it is largely guesswork from even the most eminent scientists. And there is no consensus among even them.

Forza14 give us your plan for the UK then ? What do you think should happen now/next ? Be brutally honest , how many deaths do you think are acceptable for you to keep the lifestyle you are accustomed to ?

What I mean is, about 500,000 people a year die in the UK anually, this March is no worse than previous years

So 500,000 people normally die.

I guess you are saying that an extra 200,000 (which may well include those in the 500,000) is ok - compared to the economic cost.

How many deaths is acceptable in the younger population?
100,000 under 60 year olds?

Young people with well-managed diseases die of colds and flu every year. Young people, entirely healthy, die of flu every year

That's true.

How many deaths of people under 50 are ok compared to the normal year

He’s an editor & commentator. He’s commenting. What’s wrong with that?

Nothing 'wrong' with it, that is what he does, how he makes his money. doesn't make him right or mean people have to agree with his comments. He is one of many. Everyone is free to choose who they agree with

Just looked him up, what a cock

It doesn't take a genius to work out that the trickle effect of this virus won't just kill elderly people.

It will fill beds so others can't use them, if it gets out of control thousands of young cancer patients will die before they even have a chance to recover, transplant patients, people waiting for a transplant, kids with cystic fibrosis, disabled kids with shonky immune systems. The list goes on and on.

The government stance is the right one.

Can't abide Sue Perkins.

Smugness personified.

It is true that we don't know the mortality rate because it is hard to know a rate when you don't know how many people have had the disease in the first place.

It is also true that if a daily count was done of flu victims, then that would look high.

You can look at the trend in deaths and wonder about the doubling rate, the ease with which it can be transmitted, the chances of needing an ICU bed and the chances of dying in ICU. The minutes from the meeting on 21st Feb look quite scary on that.

app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/640968322003

I totally agree that models need to be looked at - and the underlying data, who is being tested, how accurate the tests are and who the group is is important.

I have way more science education and experience than a GCSE in Biology.

@frumpety - I can reassure toy that Tony Young has been "a man id a certain age" his entire life. Or at least since he was 23....

We can all become more educated, listen more, learn more, but Tony Young will always be a twat.

"there's no one in the Excel Centre yet." So if it fills up, as presumably some rather high up people think it will, would you admit you might have been slightly wrong?

Or did you vote for a govt who is paying hand over fist for this and showing us that we really didn't need austerity at all completely for no reason?

"Or did you vote for a govt who is paying hand over fist for this and showing us that we really didn't need austerity at all completely for no reason?"

I think Young's point is after this is over you'll think austerity was a walk in the park to what's going to happen in the next ten years to the NHS and every other public sector service.

Suckingdiesel, you've clearly never had the pleasure of meeting Toby Young. In a smugness competition, Sue Perkins would be way down the list. If you ever meet anyone to equal him you'll be hanging out in the Cabinet Office.

I keep saying this for context, but 250,000 people in the UK died from flu, despite us having vaccinations.

Over what period, @Devesko? Because if it is over one year, that figure is wildly out. Can you give your source?

I’m certainly up for the figures to be constantly looked into - just not into people denying that the Italian healthcare system is not coping with the numbers getting sick at the moment compared to a normal year. Why rely on your favoured e perts over other experts when you think none of them have enough data to be accurate? Why not rely on evidence from the healthcare systems that aren’t coping with it in fact instead?