Coronavirus

[OhSoOuting]

AIBU to set out some facts because some of the threads about this are utterly ridiculous.

You cannot get coronavirus from having recently eaten Chinese food, sat next to an Asian looking person on the train, or walking on the opposite side of the road to a group of Chinese tourists.

You do not need to withdraw your child from school or university if one person in that institution is self-isolating due to being in contact with someone who in turn was a contact of an infected person. The person who is self isolating is 2 steps removed from the virus, your child is 3 steps removed - it’s not a risk.

The flimsy paper masks do not protect against Coronavirus. All they will do is make you look a bit of a twat on public transport. You either need to go the whole hog and get an N95 respirator which needs to be fit tested by a medical professional, or you could just make sure you wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face.

If by some tiny chance, you think you may have coronavirus, DO NOT GO TO A&E OR YOUR GP. Call 111, and they will arrange for you to be tested.

If by some even tinier chance you have indeed got coronavirus, remember: the virus has a slightly less than 2% death rate of known cases. This being cases acute enough for medical treatment to be sought. As we’ve seen from the so called ‘super-spreader’, it can be extremely mild or virtually asymptomatic. This means the rate of cases is likely to be about 4 times the known cases and puts the death rate at somewhere under 0.5%. (Statistics from a variety of sources including LSE and the Lancet)

Of the deaths, 80% have been over 60 and 75% had a pre-existing health condition. There have been only 2 deaths outside China. It is almost certainly no coincidence that China has the highest rates of heavy smokers in the world.

We have NO IDEA what is going to happen, so why flap and panic until we have more information.

my partners mum asked him earlier if he had coronovirus because he has a cold. he is sneezing etc. which isnt a symptom and his temperature is normal yet his mum has now put it in his head. on that level it is ridiculous and unhelpful

I don't think essentially telling people they are probably going to die from it is helpful atall and certainly not factual. noone in this country has died from it yet. so let's please keep it in perspective.

Whereas it's fine to say that only the elderly and immunocompromised or those with other health conditions will die is it? That may make you feel better but it doesn't exactly reassure those who do have health conditions. It's quite unpleasant to imply that their lives don't matter as much as yours and is not even true .It's also not true say it is like the flu. It is likely to be much more serious. Thinking that it isn't a risk is not keeping things in perspective as you only have to look at China to see how it can escalate.

Definitely it would be daft to stay indoors at the moment but dismissing valid concerns with information that is not correct is not helpful either.

2% is actually a very high death rate. There are over a 100 people in my office. That means that if we all contract Coronavirus, two of us are likely to die. I have been at my current firm for over four years and not one person has died in my office during that period.

woodchuck99 I'm not sure where I said it was okay? I said it was sad but also whether people like it or not it is common sense that people who are immunocompromised are going to get hired harder with respiratory illness'. I'm sorry but now I am going to patronize you and say I dont actually think you've looked or read anything you've replied to me as it is stating a lot of random things that noone has said. noone has other peoples lives dont matter just to put things in perspective. I've also not said anything about the situation in China, I mentioned the UK. I think you are getting a bit hysterical

but it hasnt escalated in the UK yet. my point is until you're told to stay in and that it is a crisis in this country and people are all going to start dropping dead then it would be sensible to keep calm. I appreciate its easier said than done but what's the point in making yourself sick with worry right now

I'm not sure where I said it was okay?

I didn't say you said it was okay. I was just pointing out the hypocrisy that you think it "unhelpful" to "essentially tell people they are going to die" when that is exactly what you are doing to people who are older or have health conditions which will be quite a few people on here.

I essentially agree with you (and other "rational" posters) on the rational level.

On the irrational level, I feel very odd being (for the first time in my life during any major epidemic/pandemic panic) not quite in, but close to the group-more-likely-to-die. The ''oh it only kills over-60s'' things starts to sound much less reassuring if you are closer to 60 than 40, and if A LOT of people dear to your heart are over 60.

I appreciate its easier said than done but what's the point in making yourself sick with worry right now

Who is making themselves sick with worry? I'm certainly not but I'm not going to kid myself that this on similar to flu or that it hasn't got the potential to be very serious in UK. I appreciate that you may need to do that if you suffer from anxiety but in general I think it important for people to take this very seriously as otherwise many people will not take the steps that are needed this escalating.

woodchuck99 so you think its important for us to worry and take the risk seriously but you dont want the most at risk group (the immunocompromised) to be told they are potentially at a higher risk so should most definitely be taking steps to protect themselves as much as they can because anyone who acknowledges this doesnt care if they die? also its not a guarantee that if you are immunocompromised you will die? you're talking as if it is an automatic death sentence when 82 percent of cases worldwide are mild and noone has died in the UK. oh and they recently announced 2500 people tested in the UK - still only 9 positives. it's interesting you say not to patronize but say you understand if someone had anxiety its easier not to acknowledge the real risk. that isn't what I'm doing atall but I am certainly not about to spend my life panicking about all the things that could get me

Agree with @aureum. The changing stats can be seen here together with non panic straight information: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As of 8.20pm tonight, death rate was 18%.

I think the potential economic fall out from this may be very influential on our lives.

Haven't jCb been hit by the fact they can't get parts and have had to reduce production?

Wwoodchuck99 so you think its important for us to worry and take the risk seriously but you dont want the most at risk group (the immunocompromised) to be told they are potentially at a higher risk so should most definitely be taking steps to protect themselves as much as they can*

So you think you it helpful to point out that the immunocompromised are more like to die and that they will benefit from your top tips on how to avoid getting infected? Don't worry we already know about hygiene. It is the healthy that often don't seem to get it and as I said it would be helpful for them to be more concerned about this virus rather than dismissing it as similar to flu. It isn't.

that isn't what I'm doing atall but I am certainly not about to spend my life panicking about all the things that could get me

I'm not talking about it as if it is an automatic death sentence. I just think that it could potentially kill a lot of people including people I know. That doesn't mean I'm panicking but I'm not going to dismiss the risk either.

Wwoodchuck99 so you think its important for us to worry and take the risk seriously but you dont want the most at risk group (the immunocompromised) to be told they are potentially at a higher risk so should most definitely be taking steps to protect themselves as much as they can

So you think you it helpful to point out that the immunocompromised are more like to die and that they will benefit from your top tips on how to avoid getting infected? Don't worry we already know about hygiene. It is the healthy that often don't seem to get it and as I said it would be helpful for them to be more concerned about this virus rather than dismissing it as similar to flu. It isn't.

that isn't what I'm doing atall but I am certainly not about to spend my life panicking about all the things that could get me

I'm not talking about it as if it is an automatic death sentence. I just think that it could potentially kill a lot of people including people I know. That doesn't mean I'm panicking but I'm not going to dismiss the risk either.

8,024 are critical in China. Doesn't look good.

woodchuck99 okay I'm going to leave you to it because the points you are making dont make sense they really dont. immunocompromised people are the biggest at risk group. doesnt mean they're going to die. anyone could get it. yes you're right people you know possibly could but atm the risk is low. it makes me feel better not to dwell on it. if it makes you feel better to think of the worst cass scenario then go ahead

It's scary because it is new and it is unknown. You don't know what is going to happen because this virus hasn't existed before! It seems to spread very easily and due to the ease of international travel in this day and age it's only a matter of time before it is in every country. Plus all of the economic impacts already being felt around the world makes it even more worrying.

@flowerycurtainit won't take much to put my department into trouble, most of my stock comes from China

eventually production will die down if people are quarantined etc. china grinds to a halt, then so does the world i'm told!

First of all, it’s still very early days. The line on the graph for deaths does not yet seem to be mirroring the line for number of infected which would to me imply that there is a lag. As in it takes time for people to actually pass away. A doctor I know has confirmed this. Secondly, it’s winter and flu season. The other usual illnesses are not going to go and whistle because there’s a new kid on the block. In western countries and indeed China there are millions upon millions of elderly people who do fall into the vulnerable category. We’ll get the flu deaths plus the corona deaths and if things go badly (which I sincerely hope not), there could be further deaths as a result of services being stripped down or people being scared to go to hospital. In Sierra Leone, the number of maternal deaths for example was very high during the Ebola crisis. In poorer countries this could very easily overwhelm their healthcare systems.

So no, while there is no point in panicking, absolutely no excuse for casual racism, this is not to be taken lightly at all. A pandemic like this has been long overdue. So wash your hands, use hand sanitiser, don’t cough and sneeze into your hands and listen out for further developments. This virus is not going anywhere for some time.

seems like the contact has to be quite minimal for it to spread....is this within the realms of 'normal' for a virus?

ratherbeflying you thinking the death rate is 18% shows that the statement there are lies damn lies and statistics is true. You can make anything seem true with them if you look at them in isolation

More likely that is showing a critical rate of 15% in known cases of which the death rate is around 18% - so is somewhere around the 2/3% if the actual case rate is correct.

Its far far more likely that the incorrect number which needs to be pushed higher which pushes the critical rate and death rate lower

It’s not rocket science - even a doubling of demand on beds would wipe NHS capacity. And it’s Beds that can have staff allocated, remember.

Whilst those at more risk are lower numbers, those numbers exceed capacity by many numbers. Death rates are currently mitigated by the number of available cc Beds.

How many of those do we have just lying around, waiting for someone ill enough? I had a nurse to myself virtually for 24 hours following a heart attack without complications - that was on monitors excluding breathing assistance.

How many critical care patients do you think could be managed at the same time?

The death rate for swine flu about 0.02%- so if the coronvirus rate is 2% - then it's 100x higher.

But I don't think we really have a good idea about the true death rate yet.

I think out of the hospital cases, looking at deaths versus recovery, then about 18% mortality.

But there could be 100x more undetected cases than we know of eg asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

So it's probably somewhere between 1x and 1000x more deadly than flu.

I'm a bit late to the party and I haven't RTFT but I have to refute this whole 'It's no worse than flu' that I keep reading.

Yes, getting coronavirus on a personal level might be no worse than flu.

BUT most people have some immunity to flu because it's around all the time so only a proportion of the population catch it each year. No one has existing immunity to COVID so it could infect pretty much everyone in a matter of months and overwhelm the health system.

You might not be so dismissive when it's your dad with heart disease or your kid with asthma who needs a HDU or ICU bed and there aren't any spare.