Coronavirus

[OhSoOuting]

AIBU to set out some facts because some of the threads about this are utterly ridiculous.

You cannot get coronavirus from having recently eaten Chinese food, sat next to an Asian looking person on the train, or walking on the opposite side of the road to a group of Chinese tourists.

You do not need to withdraw your child from school or university if one person in that institution is self-isolating due to being in contact with someone who in turn was a contact of an infected person. The person who is self isolating is 2 steps removed from the virus, your child is 3 steps removed - it’s not a risk.

The flimsy paper masks do not protect against Coronavirus. All they will do is make you look a bit of a twat on public transport. You either need to go the whole hog and get an N95 respirator which needs to be fit tested by a medical professional, or you could just make sure you wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face.

If by some tiny chance, you think you may have coronavirus, DO NOT GO TO A&E OR YOUR GP. Call 111, and they will arrange for you to be tested.

If by some even tinier chance you have indeed got coronavirus, remember: the virus has a slightly less than 2% death rate of known cases. This being cases acute enough for medical treatment to be sought. As we’ve seen from the so called ‘super-spreader’, it can be extremely mild or virtually asymptomatic. This means the rate of cases is likely to be about 4 times the known cases and puts the death rate at somewhere under 0.5%. (Statistics from a variety of sources including LSE and the Lancet)

Of the deaths, 80% have been over 60 and 75% had a pre-existing health condition. There have been only 2 deaths outside China. It is almost certainly no coincidence that China has the highest rates of heavy smokers in the world.

We have NO IDEA what is going to happen, so why flap and panic until we have more information.

So it seems @thymelord. And for that reason
I’m giving up. Can’t argue with stupid.

Seems a bit odd to start a thread to criticise people for worrying, when you yourself admit there's a lot we/you don't know about this virus.

Maybe just wait and see what happens before you get on your high horse?

YANBU

We do need to follow government guidelines. We dont need to get hysterical about it and make up our own additional rules.

The number of times I've seen "We dont know the real death rate - only what China has told us. It's actually much higher" - So what about the cases outside of China?

And "The only reason they'd be reacting like this is if its much more deadly than we've been told" - Or they know that the population of the world has little to no immunity to it? And if everyone gets sick at the same time it'd be catastrophic... So of course you slow the spread of it by putting these measures into place, no need to look for additional conspiracies.

I think the problem is that ‘media sensationalism’ is literally everywhere due to the 24 hour news cycle we now live with, and no one knows what is a reputable source of facts any more, especially when the WHO is saying it’s public enemy number one and worse than terrorism (apparently).

I think you might be expecting a bit much from people here, OP, when the general population is being assailed by media-driven fuelled hysteria, and panic led by those supposedly in the best positions to know how seriously to take the threat.

When ordinary, non-medical, non-research, non-scientific people in the general public see: mass quarantines in China; multiple countries enforcing border control for those flying in from affected countries; evacuation flights; quarantine in this country; official advice to self-isolate in certain circumstances; official government, PHE, and NHS advice on what to do if you’ve travelled from certain areas, or have certain symptoms; see daily running tallies of infection and death rates; updates to the House stating ‘moderate risk; legal interventions to prevent people leaving quarantine - 1) none of that seems to match a non-threatening virus, and 2) all that is reported day in, day out by newspapers and screen media, of varying degrees of credibility - it is literally everywhere. It’s never any wonder that people are concerned and panicking.

And blaming the general population for behaving the way they are in the face of ALL that seems to me to be akin to blaming a tree for burning when all around it a forest is on fire.

I agree with you OP. I think the threads on here are borderline dangerous. People reporting nonsense they have seen on facebook and twitter as 'fact', which then spirals into "Yeh I saw someone on my road being taken away in a hazmat suit".

I don't use Facebook or twitter, I'm finding enough to be reasonably concerned about in The Guardian and from people like virologists from Imperial College, WHO and PHE.

I agree you can't argue with stupid though.

I can understand, sort of, why people think it’s more likely that an Asian person will have travelled to Asia recently, but I don’t think that stacks up.

Dh is East Asian, and hasn’t been back there for over a year and that was for a work trip. He hasn’t been back to his home country for years.

Meanwhile, I have two white British friends who regularly (once every two or three months) visit China, Thailand and Japan for work (obviously not at the moment..)

They catch the same train to work as my husband. So if you’re going to avoid sitting next to my Asian looking husband who hasn’t been anywhere near China for years, and sit next to the white guy who’s actually been to China in the last two weeks, then whoops.

Plus there are plenty of 2nd/3rd generation British Chinese people who’ve never been to China.

Put all of that together, and I do think that people avoiding “Chinese looking” people and abusing them are a bit thick. If you’re going to avoid “Chinese looking” people, then also avoid “people who look like international travel to China is a regular part of their job, or look as if they might have been to an international conference which people from affected areas may also have attended.”

Bookmarking this thread to come back to it in four weeks 😂

I’m not saying I disagree with you, just that I think you’re targeting your ire in the wrong direction, and you’d also perhaps get better results if you signposted people towards to actual, genuine factual information about risk levels etc that could help them to navigate their way through the media-driven hysteria.

Unfortunately, I doubt that’s going to be easy, given, as you say, there’s a lot that is still unknown, and the WHO seem to have dropped a bollock and ramped up the hysteria themselves.

This op is the first time I’ve heard smoking being mentioned in connection to this virus.

Is this a fact’?

You also connect stress and ‘overwork’ in connection with the death of the young doctor....again, is this ‘fact’

I feel this thread is the same as all the others with an op who is ‘guessing’ and trying to tell us all we are wrong/misguided /scaremongering

'Re the WHO - I have NO IDEA what he was thinking. That was one of the stupidest, most ill-conceived speeches of all time. “Public enemy number one”, “worse than Terrorism” - even COVID19 is a million times worse than we think, that kind of scaremongering language is utterly reprehensible from an organisation meant to be appraising people of the FACTS. I don’t know why he said what he said - it’s not supported by the pure facts as we have them,'

Well that's the thing, you don't know why he said that. He's not some random guy on the street looking to scare people though, he is an expert and an authority and is privy to much, much more information than members of the public. So with all due respect, I think I'll take the advice of the WHO and remain concerned rather than take the advice of an anonymous person on Mumsnet who reckons they know all about it.

The tv report this morning went a bit wrong with the interview of the British man in quarantine in China.

Quite happily chatting about life in quarantine but then went on to say he’s really more worried now than ever

Reporter asks why? And he says ‘well I saw 3 ambulances in a row down my street taking people out’

Back to being worried then! Reporter seemed a bit lost for words

Wow, so much wrong info on this thread.

The correct death rate is around 19%. Of course people need to take this virus seriously, it is a very serious threat to the world.

I think the people quarantined in Liverpool are leaving hospital any day now

They're not quarantined in Liverpool but they have all tested negative and will be leaving tomorrow.

@ShiningBrightly The correct death rate is around 19%

I've not seen this publicised anywhere?

@shiningbrightly are you missing a decimal point in there? When the current rate is 61000 cases with 1300 deaths. That’s 2%.

@FenellaMaxwell To be fair - that's not strictly speaking how you work out a reliable death rate this early into an outbreak. As the general public we dont have access to the data we'd need to work it out.

Everything I've seen from even semi reputable sources has been 2% or below though.

quite honestly I dont see where worrying will get you. I say this as an anxious person who lives down the road from Brighton and Worthing. end of the day sometimes you need to accept uncertainty. for the people who are scared nothing anyone presents them will feel better apart from the news announcing the virus has been stopped.

people getting mad aswell about others pointing out there are other diseases that we know of that are far more deadly make 0 sense. there are 6 strains of coronavirus we know of today - this is not something the world has never seen before.

yes, be concerned as people have died from it. but by that logic I strongly suggest those of you who drive stay away from your cars today. far more likely of a fatal outcome.

this is gonna sound quite conspiracy like but isnt it interesting big distractions as these happen around times of political uncertainty...just a thought.

in the meantime, use basic hygiene you've always used and try have some perspective. you simply cant believe everything you see/hear in the media - you're informed of what they want you to be.

It must wind you up working in A and E with the full spectrum of the public.

I assume "corona beer" phone call was a misguided joker but who knows.

I agree that it is as likely to be the international business traveller or backpacker who passes Covid 19 around.

also those questioning if stress can be a factor in the bodies response to an illness (relevant to the mention of the young doctor) - of course it can seeing as stress can surpress your immune system

Ok, the researchers from Imperial College say 1% death rate as a latest best estimate.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

I would be inclined to say that there is uncertainty which could swing it in either direction but that this is the most accurate number at the moment.

Personally I think that Corona Virus is concerning and that it is rational to be concerned.

OP I appreciate that you are trying to dispel rumors but I thought your whole post was lecturing and sanctimonious. I also think factually incorrect. People can Google what you have just quoted......

The NHS can’t even cope with ordinary flu. This virus is more contagious, has a higher rate of complications and a higher rate of deaths. I’m not worried but I have private health insurance.

@ShiningBrightly DP you know something that we don’t?

@Chocmallows is right - there's a massive risk that the effects of coronavirus (even if it was only confined to China) is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back with respect to the global recession that we're rather overdue - and have been teetering on the brink of for some time. As there's no slack whatsoever in the system, made clear at Davos, this is likely to be considerably more catastrophic than 2008 and will have knock on implications for health systems globally as well.

I worked for the WHO for some years, and their warnings aren't issued lightly. There's no point panicking about coronavirus, as there's never any point panicking about anything. But I find some of the posts about it quite dismissive of people's concerns, especially when badged as being "common sense" and other means of signalling the poster's infinite superiority.

Right now, it's very early into the outbreak. There isn't sufficient data to make truly reliable pronouncements. This is why people like me are working with id medics and other specialists modelling possible outcomes, and why there is such variance - because at this stage, we just don't have enough evidence to be able to produce anything more solid than vague "predictions" using a series of variables, since it's too early to calculate eg replication rate with any significant degree of confidence.

This doesn't mean people should be scared, but it does mean they should follow PHE recommendations. Clearly, there are always the wilfully stupid people who think consuming Chinese food will endanger them-just like there's idiots who go to A and E for spurious reasons every day of the week. But these people aren't the norm, and it's not unreasonable for people to have concerns.

This may end up being over-exaggerated - hopefully so. But it may not, and shutting down perfectly valid concerns with brisk, no-nonsense minimisation is dismissive, patronising, and also proves the point that a little learning can be a dangerous thing. It's lovely that you are oh, so superior to mere ignorant mortals based on your perusal of the Guardian online, but don't assume that this is all going to blow over because "only the vulnerable die" or whatever bollocks you are spouting. The truth is, we don't know this. We simply don't have the data yet to determine this with any confidence.