Coronavirus

[OhSoOuting]

AIBU to set out some facts because some of the threads about this are utterly ridiculous.

You cannot get coronavirus from having recently eaten Chinese food, sat next to an Asian looking person on the train, or walking on the opposite side of the road to a group of Chinese tourists.

You do not need to withdraw your child from school or university if one person in that institution is self-isolating due to being in contact with someone who in turn was a contact of an infected person. The person who is self isolating is 2 steps removed from the virus, your child is 3 steps removed - it’s not a risk.

The flimsy paper masks do not protect against Coronavirus. All they will do is make you look a bit of a twat on public transport. You either need to go the whole hog and get an N95 respirator which needs to be fit tested by a medical professional, or you could just make sure you wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face.

If by some tiny chance, you think you may have coronavirus, DO NOT GO TO A&E OR YOUR GP. Call 111, and they will arrange for you to be tested.

If by some even tinier chance you have indeed got coronavirus, remember: the virus has a slightly less than 2% death rate of known cases. This being cases acute enough for medical treatment to be sought. As we’ve seen from the so called ‘super-spreader’, it can be extremely mild or virtually asymptomatic. This means the rate of cases is likely to be about 4 times the known cases and puts the death rate at somewhere under 0.5%. (Statistics from a variety of sources including LSE and the Lancet)

Of the deaths, 80% have been over 60 and 75% had a pre-existing health condition. There have been only 2 deaths outside China. It is almost certainly no coincidence that China has the highest rates of heavy smokers in the world.

We have NO IDEA what is going to happen, so why flap and panic until we have more information.

YANBU

You cannot get coronavirus from having [...] sat next to an Asian looking person on the train
Of course you can catch it from sitting next to someone who is carrying the virus. An Asian person is more likely to have recently visited one of the Asian countries affected, and therefore be carrying it. We need to be sensitive about that, but not to the point where we're pretending it isn't true.

...or walking on the opposite side of the road to a group of Chinese tourists.
True. Has anyone really suggested that, or is it a strawman?

You do not need to withdraw your child from school or university if one person in that institution is self-isolating due to being in contact with someone who in turn was a contact of an infected person.
On what basis? The virus spreads during the asymptomatic incubation period, which lasts 14 days, possibly longer. The person now in self isolation could have unknowingly transmitted it to several other students. Perhaps you wouldn't withdraw your child under these circumstances, but it's understandable why others might decide to.

The flimsy paper masks do not protect against Coronavirus.
True. I have read they are only something like 60% effective. They do help you to avoid touching your face with your hands.

Remember: the virus has a slightly less than 2% death rate of known cases.
Also remember that you're relying on questionable figures provided by the Chinese government. They have reached the point where they're burning bodies without testing them. It doesn't inspire confidence.

There have been only 2 deaths outside China.
So far. The virus has only just begun appearing outside China. It can be a long protracted illness with a long incubation period. We're a few weeks behind where the original epicentre of Wuhan now is. We simply don't know what will happen - there are too many factors involved that could swing it once way or the other.

I hope you're right that the lower pollution rate outside of China will help, and the head start we have. Hand waving it away will not.

My sister was here a couple of weeks ago and travelled all around London. She is resident in a Far East country but is European. She could have had it for
all anyone knew. There are plenty of
Far East looking people who rarely or never visit there. Horrible and racist to suggest avoiding certain people.

We got a circular re. Coronavirus at work the other day because people had contacted HR worried about it. I was a bit 🙄 until I thought about it. Our small team has a couple of people with pre-existing conditions, one of them has a wife with progressive ms. So I think I'd been looking at it from the position of a 41yo healthy woman, as opposed to someone who could actually be quite severely affected by it.

So while yanbu to add some much needed perspective op, people have a range of personal circumstances that naturally means they will worry more.

Tell that fact to some one who has lost a baby/child, parent, grandparent etc that it’s only a tiny percentage I am. In fact I nearly died as a result of the flu three years ago which was made worse by an undiagnosed heart condition. Have now acquired additional heart conditions as a result and need a heart transplant although am currently hovering on the right side of the list.... so I think it’s fair to say that I fall into one of the at-risk categories should I contract the virus.

And the truth is that we none of us know what lies around the corner. Every illness carries a risk. Even the common cold carries a risk but you simply cannot live your life in fear like that.

@Angelw that would be me. I had to perform CPR on my baby when he stopped breathing with respiratory issues. I still think it’s important to not panic and to focus on the FACTS.

I’m sorry ,I know that the media likes to hype things, but 242 people dying in 24 hours of a virus is worrying

Given that this has been addressed pretty sensibly on MN already, op, not sure why pp think this is the first sensible thread on it.

@AsAhDiSeh

Except almost all cases in the UK were transmitted by a white British man.

I work in an A&E. we’ve had people bring their children in because they ate a Chinese takeaway. And people ring up worried because their teen had drunk a corona beer. No Straw man.

On the basis that with that number of degrees of separation, self-isolating every person who has been in contact with a person who has been in contact with a person with corona virus, your potential pool is so wide that by that it’s utterly ineffective.

The masks do NOT discourage people touching their faces - the opposite as those unused to wearing them are more likely to fiddle with the ill-fitting mask.

There have been cases outside of China for over a month now. You can apply common sense to the death rate and spread rate of that without any need to rely on the Chinese government.

The first case in China was 1st Dec, with the declaration of a problem to WHO on 31st Dec. The first case outside of China was 13th January. By that reckoning, it would have reached widespread levels in Thailand and Japan by now with death tolls at least into double figures in each. This hasn’t happened.

It is not “hand waving” to use statistics, the facts as we have them, and common sense to say that if we don’t know, we shouldn’t panic.

@Evilspiritgin but the population of China is 1.5 BILLION. 242 in 1.5 BILLION die of falling down the stairs in 24 hours.

@evilspiritgin if this helps at all, 821 people a day on average die in China from household injuries or poisonings.

f this helps at all, 821 people a day on average die in China from household injuries or poisonings.

But they didn't. They died of a virus which the WHO and most experts think has a very high probability of becoming a pandemic. We don't yet know the CFR as it takes about 3 weeks from diagnosis to death. We think it can be spread before symptoms are evident. There is some evidence it's airborne. No, panicking won't help but brushing it off as just another flu, or meh, only the old and infirm are affected won't help either. People need to be taking on board the sensible precautions to halt the spread. And if you do work in A & E you're irresponsible.

@NaturalBornWoman please can you tell me how it is irresponsible to tell people to stop panicking about ordering a Chinese takeaway or sitting next to anyone who looks Asian? I’m curious to know the grounds for that.

You will note in my OP I clearly stated the importance of washing hands. I am not brushing it off or being meh. I’m saying DON’T PANIC WHEN WE DON’T KNOW, and listen to the FACTS.

There is no possible way you can extrapolate an accurate death rate outside of China at this stage. For a start it’s in the early stages outside China so very few people have caught it and secondly it seems to be taking weeks for people to die from it. It’s quite likely that figure is going to go up.

I'm getting quite irritated by the 'more people die from the flu' comments - this is an obtuse obscuring of the risk of the coronavirus because that is only the case because more people get the flu. Flu is also less of a risk because you can vaccinate against it.

I'll tell you why I'm concerned -

1. Unlike Australia, the US and other similar countries we have not imposed a ban / quarantine on anyone coming from China so we're vastly increasing the chances of infected people continuing to come into the country.

1. There is already a shroud of secrecy, where even NHS professionals working in hospitals are not told about suspected cases amongst their colleagues, they're finding out from local media / social media. The government is obviously trying to contain panic, and that means that we're unlikely to be getting all the information.

1. I've read about the suspected cases of an 8 month old and 4 year old, I think in London. I have children almost exactly the same age and also live in London. The parents described it as being "in hell". I completely get it and know I would feel exactly the same. I'm tired of these legitimate feelings being minimised, anyone would feel the same if they were told their kids had the coronavirus.

1. The WHO have declared it a risk worse than terrorism and a global threat. I don't think they say that lightly, and they've never said that about a the big standard flu virus.

1. The NHS seems to be at breaking point every winter even without additional threats like this, so I am far from convinced that the 'NHS is well equipped to deal with this'. My concern is that if you do contract the virus, that the priority will be to make sure you don't infect anyone else rather than helping you recover, so I don't really fancy my chances of getting adequate care if any family member did get it.

So, sorry if I am feeling concerned, I'm tired of been told that there's nothing to worry about, and I should be more worried about the flu etc.

*bog standard flu virus

You will note in my OP I clearly stated the importance of washing hands. I am not brushing it off or being meh. I’m saying DON’T PANIC WHEN WE DON’T KNOW, and listen to the FACTS.

You have given non factual information on e.g. mortality rate and positioned yourself as more knowledgeable than the general population as a HCP. I don't believe anyone came into your A&E having drunk a corona beer (unless they'd drunk rather more than one and we're taking the piss).

@naturalbornwoman again, if you refer to my message you will see they called in. You don’t need to take my word for it, you can google for examples of similar ludicrous behaviour.

Also can you please tell me where I’ve even mentioned being an HCP?

I think the people quarantined in Liverpool are leaving hospital any day now and there is a confirmed case of a lady travelled from china to london in st Thomas’s

We have no idea what’s going to happen, isn’t this the exact reason why people are panicking?

@Noconceptofnormal I’m not telling you not to worry. This is a disease people have died from. Worry, prudence and good hand hygiene are all sensible responses. I am saying that there is no point in hysteria and panic and people should pay more attention to the facts than to media sensationalism.

@halcyondays people are panicking because the media are driving things to a frenzy. That’s exactly my point - we DON’T KNOW, so it’s nuts to get completely hysterical about it.

We don’t know exactly but surely the most likely outcome at this point is it’ll get worse before it gets better.

What exactly are you describing as media sensationalism?

Also not sure what sensationalism you are referring to. You object to someone bringing their kid into the a&e you work at "because they had a Chinese takeaway ". On tbe face of it, yes, that sounds utterly ridiculous of them. Or, they were in proximity of a person recently returned from China when at the takeaway premises. It's just been Chinese New Year. It's not impossible that some else was there who had recently returned from China. And the kid in question developed cold symptoms. As people do this time of year. And the parents panicked. So maybe you need to find a way to calm yourself about your dismissiveness.

I agree with you OP. I think the threads on here are borderline dangerous. People reporting nonsense they have seen on facebook and twitter as 'fact', which then spirals into "Yeh I saw someone on my road being taken away in a hazmat suit".

Unfortunately, I am quite certain that this thread will be derailed by those who are keen to dismiss your rational posts, and keep the level of hysteria high.