Coronavirus

[OhSoOuting]

AIBU to set out some facts because some of the threads about this are utterly ridiculous.

You cannot get coronavirus from having recently eaten Chinese food, sat next to an Asian looking person on the train, or walking on the opposite side of the road to a group of Chinese tourists.

You do not need to withdraw your child from school or university if one person in that institution is self-isolating due to being in contact with someone who in turn was a contact of an infected person. The person who is self isolating is 2 steps removed from the virus, your child is 3 steps removed - it’s not a risk.

The flimsy paper masks do not protect against Coronavirus. All they will do is make you look a bit of a twat on public transport. You either need to go the whole hog and get an N95 respirator which needs to be fit tested by a medical professional, or you could just make sure you wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face.

If by some tiny chance, you think you may have coronavirus, DO NOT GO TO A&E OR YOUR GP. Call 111, and they will arrange for you to be tested.

If by some even tinier chance you have indeed got coronavirus, remember: the virus has a slightly less than 2% death rate of known cases. This being cases acute enough for medical treatment to be sought. As we’ve seen from the so called ‘super-spreader’, it can be extremely mild or virtually asymptomatic. This means the rate of cases is likely to be about 4 times the known cases and puts the death rate at somewhere under 0.5%. (Statistics from a variety of sources including LSE and the Lancet)

Of the deaths, 80% have been over 60 and 75% had a pre-existing health condition. There have been only 2 deaths outside China. It is almost certainly no coincidence that China has the highest rates of heavy smokers in the world.

We have NO IDEA what is going to happen, so why flap and panic until we have more information.

@GrapefruitsAreNotTheOnlyFruit I was being humorous. I have no idea whether my insurance would cover this, I hope they would but all healthcare in the U.K. seems to be crap. I don’t think I’ll get seriously ill.

Look up the exiled chinese billionaire who thinks the death rate is closer to 50,000.

The chinese gov are not being truthful.

The chinese gov are not being truthful.

I think it more likely that they just don't know what the death rate and infection rate is at the moment. They're not hiding the fact that they are extremely concerned though and have implemented very strong measures to try and contain the virus. Obviously OP knows better than them though about whether they should be concerned.

ah interesting article there!

crematorium staff may be speaking out about the true numbers then

the chinese government absolutely SHOULD know the true death rate!

why wouldn't they?

The death rate could be much higher when looking at the number of cases that have 'concluded' with either a recovery or death so far. The numbers are likely unreliable due to source and out of proportion as China was first hit and as such hospitals are overwhelmed and unprepared. The 2 percent figure is an estimate, they really can't know at this point it's just an virologists/doctors/politicians best educated guess.

I believe, from reports, that the 19% death rate figure is from those who are admitted to hospital with severe symptoms, and not everyone who has the virus.

I think the OP has tried to calm people down who are perhaps allowing themselves to be absolutely consumed with worry. but unfortunately, unless you are prepared to stay in all the time every time you step out the door something could happen to you. this new virus sucks and the fact that its killing people is sad but reality is there are virus'/diseases/accidents that kill people every day. I think it would be a shame to waste your life panicking about every possibility. be weary and smart (sounding like a broken record but hygiene) but dont convince yourself you and your loved ones are going to fall victim to this disease especially if no cases anywhere near you. I literally live within minutes of Brighton and down the road from Worthing and I am putting in perspective that there are 9 cases in the UK and no more announced yet. seems to me they are doing a pretty good job at containing it

Well done to the OP.

Some of these scaremongering has been absolutely ridiculous. Unnecessary anxiety and needless panic is far more detrimental to the health.

I think the OP has tried to calm people down who are perhaps allowing themselves to be absolutely consumed with worry.

But it is very patronising to assume that people are unnecessarily consuming themselves with worry. And while it would obviously be daft to not go out at the moment there could be a time in the future when that's a very sensible option. Yes, people die of other things too but the risk of other things is generally quite stable. In contrast this risk increases by the day and we don't know where it will end.

Well the government guidelines are saying that if you have travelled to the various places and you have presented with fever, cough, shortness of breath, you should stay inside and call 111 if the symptoms are severe. It also states that the deaths are people with immune system issues, serious illnesses like cancer or lung disease and the elderly. The thing is is ANY virus can kill people that have those condition or are elderly. www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public?gclid=CjwKCAiAhJTyBRAvEiwAln2qB-T9RG6kikp_CPOdFvwioSB1lJbcaZpSLnDfWPryY0KxRHLWkdZVVRoCWskQAvD_BwE

Some of these scaremongering has been absolutely ridiculous. Unnecessary anxiety and needless panic is far more detrimental to the health.

I expect the people have died from it would disagree with you there. Regardless, you don't know what anxiety is unnecessary or needless. Nobody does at the moment.

It also states that the deaths are people with immune system issues, serious illnesses like cancer or lung disease and the elderly. The thing is is ANY virus can kill people that have those condition or are elderly.

Some viruses are more likely to kill them and others. And the definition of elderly is not usually as low as 60 or even 50 as in this case. Lung disease could include anyone who smokes or has asthma. So whilst you find this very reassuring it actually covers a huge proportion of the population.

so the majority dying are already in hospital with a serious illness? or a care home? or hospice

and if the masks are not preventing spread of the virus then how long until all the hcp's succumb?

additional medical staff have been deployed so how are these people being protected?

@UtterlyPerfectCartoonGiraffe

I can understand, sort of, why people think it’s more likely that an Asian person will have travelled to Asia recently, but I don’t this stacks up...
...Put all of that together, and I do think that people avoiding “Chinese looking” hmm people and abusing them are a bit thick. If you’re going to avoid “Chinese looking” people, then also avoid “people who look like international travel to China is a regular part of their job, or look as if they might have been to an international conference which people from affected areas may also have attended.”

Thank you for highlighting this. As I've said in another related post, the "super spreader" in the UK is a white man. Just cause they look East Asian, it doesn't mean they are virus carriers.

To think you might catch this virus from a take away or restaurant is just plain panicking and ridiculous. We do not need that scaremongering.

I’ve been thinking about this. The WHO are saying a possible 60% infection rate. So equating this to my local hospital, they have a catchment population of 2m people (semi rural with one large town)

60% get infected that’s 1.2m people.
About 20% of sufferers need some sort of hospital treatment so that’s an extra 240000 hitting that hospital.
5% will need some sort of ventilation/ICU bed - that’s 12000 people in that scenario.

My local hospital has 1,000 beds in total and 15 ICU beds. If they don’t get a grip on it then I don’t actually see how the NHS will cope at all.

I think this is where some PPs have gotten the 18% mortality rate

Well, according to the OP, we’ve only got a tiny chance of catching the virus, so don’t worry.

I’m sure the WHO are just being hysterical. What do they know, they’re only experts?

At this point, surely it's less a case of trying to contain the virus, and more realistically just hoping for the best if you do catch it.

People being aware of the threats of this virus does not hysteria make. It's a big thing! Having a plan in place in the event of quarantine (which is hardly a way out there idea seeing as it's what they're actually doing in China), is just sensible.

If people have skyrocketing anxiety then it's best for them to stay away from these sorts of threads. It doesn't mean that we should all put our fingers in our ears and sing a happy song about how very very OK everything is.

Because of the lag between infection and death and recovery, the best we have is educated guesses. That Lancet seems to place the CFR rate at 1%. For comparison, the risk of flu is about 0.02%.

You'd have to be as thick as pig shit to make comparisons between the flu and covid-19 at this point.

' It also states that the deaths are people with immune system issues, serious illnesses like cancer or lung disease and the elderly. The thing is is ANY virus can kill people that have those condition or are elderly'

Oh well, that's alright then

You'd have to be as thick as pig shit to make comparisons between the flu and covid-19 at this point.

I think that’s a tad harsh.

The suspected cases and confirmed cases are still reported separately. The diagnostic criteria for confirmed cases have been changed in one province.

Any suspected cases with pneumonia-related computerized tomography (CT) scan results are counted as clinically diagnosed cases, according to the latest version of the diagnosis and treatment scheme released by the National Health Commission.

woodchuck99 I didnt say unnecessarily. you are as entitled to how you feel as everyone who isnt as worried is. until the announcement goes up and we are all being told to stay in our houses I for one am not going to allow myself to be consumed as I already suffer with anxiety so this would literally end my day to day life as I know it if I were to get into the ifs and maybes without being told this from the professionals. I don't think essentially telling people they are probably going to die from it is helpful atall and certainly not factual. noone in this country has died from it yet. so let's please keep it in perspective. as it stands there are 9 confirmed cases in this country. the man from Brighton is recovered and out of hospital. that makes me feel better than going down the rabbit hole of how statistically likely I might be to die from it