AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

[IvyBush123]

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

I don’t believe any other country is capable of doing what the Chinese have done.

Yes the action of the Chinese to halt the spread is very impressive. I really hope that it works.

Yes, me too!

Remember there could be a lag of at least a week before a just-infected person shows symptoms and can infect another person in a country they've just travelled to. It could be another week before that person shows symptoms, and if the first case is mild then it could take until then (or even another transmission step) before anyone has severe pneumonia and people even realise it could be ncov.

At this stage numbers being low in other countries to some extent just means we're all earlier in the process. Hopefully what all the govt meetings and so on are planning is how we stop the process from exploding as much here as it has in China.

I honestly wouldn't mind if they came out quite early on with an instruction for everyone but essential workers to stay home in a particular town (or even nationally) for some period of time, if it meant that we could cut the spread off earlier here before a UK town or city ends up like Wuhan. Better to act earlier than keep shutting various stable doors after the horses have left.

Maybe people staying home, and stopping completely avoidable mixing for a while is just something we'll just have to do, in the same way everyone put up blackout curtains and coped with rationing during the war. And actually, it's true China is much better at this stuff right now, but it's not as though this country hasn't had to take quite extreme steps that will have affected the economy and normal life in the past, i.e. during the war. We can do it if we have to.

Developing countries don’t have the resources to test people, nor the government control to do what China have done. It’s brutal and will be scary for those holes up, and I dread to think about what’s happening isn’t he re-education camps that we normally turn a blind eye to, but any other country this started out in wouldn’t have had the same response. Okay, we wouldn’t have arrested that poor whistle blower doctor nor baracade people in buildings and in the U.K. people wouldn’t just complain about how their data was handled if asked to phone in a daily temperature reading.

Why are the numbers so high in Wuhan - and I believe they probably are higher than reported - and so low in other countries? And is it possible the UK government are lying about how many have it here?

Because the virus emerged in Wuhan and then has been spread by people. So it's following routes of human travel.

I very much doubt the UK gov are lying about the number of confirmed cases. It is possible there have been people with mild illness who haven't been tested. The challenge at the moment is to prevent chains of transmission outside China (like the cases linked to the French chalet).

I'm an epidemiologist so I'm happy to try and answer questions, although I'm not working on NCP and only have access to public info.

@ShanghaiDiva wishing you and your family a safe rest of the journey I’m glad that the Chinese government have taken the steps they have to quarantine and do temp checks etc.

@MagicalThinking your reply helps a lot actually. I’m trying so hard to stay rational. There are so many questions I could ask but don’t want to bombard you or derail the thread so will maybe ask a couple.

Something I’ve wondered, not just with this but with any potential health threat - if the situation really was very very bad, would the government still maintain that there’s nothing to worry about so as not to panic people?

And with regard to the spread of the NCV, I’ve read lots of different things so not sure. How exactly is it spread? I’ve read this morning it can live for 5 weeks on surfaces! Then I also read it can only be spread via close contact. I know this might be difficult to answer as you’re not currently working in this area.

Also just remembered: we hear people saying the population is ‘overdue’ a pandemic. Is this how they work definitely, or is it just random and we could go another 1000 years for example with nothing then have 2 in the same year?

Thanks so much!

I don’t believe any other country is capable of doing what the Chinese have done.

Yes - although the Chinese response is not perfect it is much improved compared to SARS in 2002 where they didn't inform the WHO of the outbreak and there was much more of a coverup.

How exactly is it spread?

Impossible to say exactly - we don't even have a particularly good knowledge of how much flu is airborne/droplet spread vs direct contact. But likely it is a combination of both. The best way to prevent respiratory infections is to wash hands regularly and not touch your mouth and eyes.

we hear people saying the population is ‘overdue’ a pandemic

Well we had a flu pandemic in 2009 plus 3 in the previous century. By 'overdue a pandemic' I guess they are meaning something plague-like that kills a high proportion of the world population. I think it's very difficult to say. You have to remember how far we have come in terms of knowledge of what causes diseases and how they spread in the last 100 years or so. When there was the 1918 flu pandemic, we didn't even know that flu was a virus. Medicine has also improved vastly. That doesn't mean I think we should be complacent as we now have much greater global connectedness so viruses spread quickly (as we are seeing).

Great posts @MagicalThinking

Thank you @MagicalThinking your posts are so helpful and calming. I’ve been washing my hands more frequently since this became mainstream news and am very conscious of not touching my face.
Yes you’re right 2009 was a pandemic wasn’t it. We do have to balance it against the fact that we’ve advanced scientifically and medically.

Thank you again for being so kind as to answer these!

@eeeyoresmiles I, too, had no problem with governments telling us to stay at home for a week or two even longer if this increases our security.

No I'm not. Ive even got a cold at the moment too so that could be it!

Agree with the poster above- worrying about it isn't helpful and stress lowers your immune system (as proven by studies) so actually the best thing you can do for your health is relax. The exact same panic happened with SARS yet I dont recall there being a pandemic of that in the UK either despite multiple reports that it was going to be the most deadly thing since the bubonic plague.

Just keep up good hand hygiene, eat healthily, get good rest and exercise- those are the best things you can do for your immune system

I'm not normally a worrier but I am surprised at the response in the UK. The man who passed the virus on in France traveled from France and apparently spent some time in the community on return. I know that the people he had contact with are being traced but I expected something to be issued about where he had been. I assume they don't want to cause panic and such information wouldn't be of benefit but I hope we aren't missing a window where a big effort could be made for a week or two that would dramatically slow down the spread. I guess those in the know must know that isn't necessary.

@MagicalThinking Great to have an epidemiologist on this thread. Actually I do have a question and would be happy to hear your opinion. Our kids are in school/daycare. I will not pull my oldest out of school unless the government tells me so, but I will pull the younger ones out if daycare if there is any risks.
The children enjoy extracurricular activities some of which involve crowds.
Dh and me just joined a martial arts school. I enjoy going to Starbucks or to the movies with my friends.
When is it time to stop doing those things? When the first infected people show up in a city near us or is it already to late then?

So in Singapore 6/43 needed intensive care. That's terrifying - let's say we get 43000 cases - that's 6000 icu beds. I don't think we even have that many.
If things get that bad how do they decide who gets treatment? Those with the best chance of survival?
The whole scale of this and the potential for bad maths is simultaneoulsly horrific and devastating.

It's not just NCP cases that need ICU beds either. There are lots of reports in China at the minute of those with chronic conditions such as leukaemia or those who need dialysis, who are dying simply because the system is overrun

There are only 5 ECMO centres in the whole of the U.K. as far as I'm aware

Apparently the french are testing 100s of people in the French ski resort who the man may have come in to contact with. Yet no concern of where he has been in Brighton.

Good question IvyBush I'd like to know that too. I will pull my kids if/when there are local cases I think, because one of them is severely immunosuppressed.
It's so hard to know when to make that judgement call though.

I hope we aren't missing a window where a big effort could be made for a week or two that would dramatically slow down the spread

I would hazard a guess that there is a lot going on behind the scenes that isn't in the media. There has been a lot of planning to cope with pandemic influenza that has been going on for years that will mostly apply to NCP. I would think there's an action plan in place and regular meetings between government and experts at DoH, PHE etc.

When is it time to stop doing those things? When the first infected people show up in a city near us or is it already to late then?

If you're wanting to minimise the chance of catching it, then yes, if you are aware of cases in your local area then that is the time to cut down all non-essential contact with people. It will be interesting to see what happens in China over the next week or two as the number of new confirmed cases has started to reduce. If this carries on then its strong evidence that the actions in China have been effective and we may see other countries decide to take similar measures of closing schools, offices etc and discouraging groups of people mixing.

The ability of the health system to cope is my major concern too, at the moment. Hopefully there are plans to increase capacity if possible. If health workers get infected, then that makes everything even more of a struggle.

I'm also concerned about developing countries. There's not yet any confirmed cases in Africa but I see it being a huge problem if it starts to spread there. Borders are porous and the health system in many countries is not functioning at the best of times as shown by the Ebola outbreaks in West Africa and DRC.

There's not yet any confirmed cases in Africa but I see it being a huge problem if it starts to spread there

I read a while ago that there might be an issue with lack of capability to test for it in parts of Africa? An article in the Washington post referenced a sample from Senegal in January having to be sent to Paris for testing (it came back negative). If that's not resolved - and I have no idea how quickly something like that could be adequately resolved - then that must surely have a serious impact on the ability to deal with it effectively.

The U.K. is only going to test people once they have a positive in their history of contacts. So many people are going to spread this far and wide if that’s all they are testing. Ignoring the people who get it mildly or have recent travel.

Hope that’s just hearsay and not true

At what point does it become a pandemic?

We are supposed to be going to the o2 for a concert in a few weeks. Now I’m debating wether it’s safe too or not

Anyone any thoughts?