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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

999 replies

IvyBush123 · 04/02/2020 06:41

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

OP posts:
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woodchuck99 · 09/02/2020 09:53

Either those 500 cases were so far beyond normal flu that they stuck out like red flags (meaning this is a very serious infection), or the numbers reported are being massively deflated.

Yes. Judging from the cases outside China it is probably that the numbers reported as infected are massively deflated but time will tell.

Lweji · 09/02/2020 10:03

Either those 500 cases were so far beyond normal flu that they stuck out like red flags (meaning this is a very serious infection), or the numbers reported are being massively deflated.

Yes, cases were unusually serious.
Yes, cases reported are very likely underestimated.

Even if only the first, they had identified it was a new virus. With a significant mortality rate.

I'm surprised you're a medic and haven't looked up how different those cases were to the normal flu.

YoursTunbridgeWells · 09/02/2020 10:18

I think @RedToothBrush makes excellent points all round.

  1. CFR - I have seen a lot of people do the maths based on people we have a known outcome for. Deaths 814 / deaths plus recovered (814+2973) gives a CFR of 22%.
For a number of reasons this is also flawed and over simplistic - for example when is a person deemed recovered? I believe there is a limit to the number of diagnostic tests that the labs can do in a day - clearly you will test the person who looks like they are coming down with the disease and not waste the test/lab time on someone who is on the mend. Due to the lengthy time between getting the virus and death the CFR isn't right. There was an article by a doctor in China who was working with the sick and writing up his observations - it seems week 1 is mild, week 2 is where it gets much worse and is the turning point where some seem to recover and some fall into the critical category. Week 3 is where critical patients either recover or die. Therefore I have seen people argue that the infection rate 3 weeks ago should be compared with death rate. Again flawed. Also what about the mild or perhaps moderate cases? Those that were unreported in the early days, perhaps some never get a fever so not sure how they would be picked up. It's ony something that can be determined with hindsight.
  1. It might turn out be our 'black death' which wipes out 50% of the population, but if that's the case then the wheels are already in motion and frankly I'd rather enjoy normality whilst it lasts because even if you survived that, it would be incredibly grim to live through and life afterwards would be vastly different (there might be very few doctors left, so any future minor illness you get could be deadly anyway).
This.

I've made my peace with the idea of a nuclear bomb wiping us out on the (probably false) assumption, we'd not really know anything about it if we were in the centre of the target. The children and parents would die at the same time as us so this is good.

If we are all going to get NCP, I go back to my point of you want to get it now (NCP party anyone?) whilst the NHS Is not overwhelmed as you will get the best standard of care. There may well be no NHS care for those once the pandemic has really taken a grip. They didn't seem to have enough ECMO machines during the swine flu epidemic and I doubt we have vastly more now.

The only thing I can't make peace with is DH and I dying and leaving the children with nobody. (IF it's that bad I am assuming my other relatives my age plus grandparents also wiped out). (Also seems highly unlikely due to health the children will all die and we'd survive - in that case I'd no longer give a toss about anything at all.)

Other than drawing up a long list of people I'd like my children to live with, pretty much nothing I can do. Sensible prepping may help - having a month's worth of food and lots of paracetamol etc in case we get to the stage of looking after the sick at home. If it's that bad I'd probably rather be dead anyway.

covetingthepreciousthings · 09/02/2020 10:32

Is anyone starting to stockpile food?

I've just said to my dh I wonder if it would be wise to start to get a little more in our cupboards.

GorkyMcPorky · 09/02/2020 10:35

The only thing I can't make peace with is DH and I dying and leaving the children with nobody. (IF it's that bad I am assuming my other relatives my age plus grandparents also wiped out).

I feel exactly the same.

ofwarren · 09/02/2020 10:37

I've started stocking up. I've got bread mix, powdered milk, a tonne of toilet rolls and lots of extra tins. Whenever there is a panic and people start stockpiling, the bread and milk and toilet roll seems to disappear. I'll use it all either way so it isn't a waste of money.

FourTeaFallOut · 09/02/2020 10:37

But the phe has a weekly flu report that includes all flu hospital admissions. Now surely if there were a jump of 500 extra cases in London when there has been a low flu season (1.2 per 100000 on week 6) over even a couple of weeks, that begins to skew the figures to raise concerns? So you'd expect 12 admissions per million and therefore 90 in London/ week, so 500 extra over say three weeks would be double and would surely alert someone to a difference?

I'm happy to be told I'm completely wrong, it's not something I have anything to do with but I thought the flu is closely monitored if only to assess the effectiveness of current vaccinations?

ofwarren · 09/02/2020 10:38

Come over to the prepping board coveting lots of good info on there about what things are good to buy more of.

covetingthepreciousthings · 09/02/2020 10:40

Come over to the prepping board coveting lots of good info on there about what things are good to buy more of.

Can you link it? We get Who Gives a Crap toilet roll delivered so always seem to have a cupboArd full of toilet roll! Our food supplies are v low though.

wherearemychickens · 09/02/2020 10:42

I haven't started to stockpile food, Coveting, because we already had a Brexit stash but we've been running that down recently so I've recently done a stock take and topped it right back up again. I'm paying more attention now to what meds we've got - think we need more, as what I've got would probably cover one of us having a prolonged respiratory illness, but not all of us coming down with one.

notanothergiftcard · 09/02/2020 11:02

This thread is utterly hysterical and frankly irresponsible. The NHS and dept of health websites clearly state the risk to the UK public is very low. From reading some of these posts you would think that we were looking at half the population keeling over tomorrow.

Saying the above is not minimising the danger, which of course is worrying for the elderly and immuno compromised. But please keep it in perspective. Some of you would be better off seeking treatment for your health anxiety (which I sympathise with as I have it too) than spending hours of your life on here, speculating widly and freaking each other out, about something which you have no control over.

GorkyMcPorky · 09/02/2020 11:05

@notanothergiftcard you may be right (rude, but right). You may not. Either way, time will tell.

wherearemychickens · 09/02/2020 11:07

Notanother, what I'm realistically preparing for is other people panic shopping and clearing out the supermarkets - exactly what's been happening in Singapore over the last week, for a case in point. I don't want to be having to do that, and spending days in queues. I think that's an entirely possible prospect in this country given a few more local cases - which, given the spread to date - I also think is entirely possible.

notanothergiftcard · 09/02/2020 11:10

@notanothergiftcard you may be right (rude, but right). You may not. Either way, time will tell.

The same is true of many things. If I started a thread right now fretting about nuclear war I would get a tonne of people telling me to stop with the hyperbole. I remember when it was all kicking off between Trump and North Korea there were multiple threads on here on that subject.

Just as there were about avian flu and swine flu.

To whoever upthread said that the key to health anxiety was "confronting your own mortality" (something we should frankly all be doing), that doesn't mean saying "I have come to terms with the fact I will probably die of X". A much more helpful thing to do is think of all the times you worried you had X, Y, Z illness and what it actually turned out to be. I remember being in the depths of despair over avian flu, and threads like this one made me even worse as they were equally doom and gloom laden.

notanothergiftcard · 09/02/2020 11:10

Notanother, what I'm realistically preparing for is other people panic shopping and clearing out the supermarkets - exactly what's been happening in Singapore over the last week, for a case in point

I have no issue with that at all, I have a brexit stash myself.

woodchuck99 · 09/02/2020 11:16

A much more helpful thing to do is think of all the times you worried you had X, Y, Z illness and what it actually turned out to be. I remember being in the depths of despair over avian flu, and threads like this one made me even worse as they were equally doom and gloom laden.

That assumes that everyone is a hypochondriac and worries about things that turn out not to be true. Last time I was worried I had a particular disease I was right.
Yes, the risk in the UK is low at the moment. However, having seen what is happening in China this clearly may not be the case in a month or two. Watching the news and knowing the facts is not a sign of hysteria.

notanothergiftcard · 09/02/2020 11:17

Watching the news and knowing the facts is not a sign of hysteria.

I have watched the news, read the news and I see nothing to justify the level of hyberbole on this thread.

woodchuck99 · 09/02/2020 11:18

Just as there were about avian flu and swine flu.

It gets on my nerves when people say that swine flu was nothing to worry about. It killed half a million people. It didn't seem that severe by the time it got to the UK (I got it) but that doesn't mean this virus will be the same. It could get worse than it is now .People are worried because they don't know what is going to happen or actually what is happening.

woodchuck99 · 09/02/2020 11:20

I have watched the news, read the news and I see nothing to justify the level of hyberbole on this thread.

They don't think that what is happening in China justifies any concern?Hmm

FourTeaFallOut · 09/02/2020 11:21

www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-fourth-case-of-coronavirus-in-england

Fourth coronavirus case in the UK.

woodchuck99 · 09/02/2020 11:24

The man from Brighton has infected a lot of people including people in Majorca, France and the UK.

ofwarren · 09/02/2020 11:25

It seems that he must have been infecting people before he had symptoms.

woodchuck99 · 09/02/2020 11:29

It seems that he must have been infecting people before he had symptoms.

He might have had symptoms but thought he had a cold or mild flu. I think they're quite mild for the first week.

RedToothBrush · 09/02/2020 11:31

Re stockpiling. In the event of a pandemic what I'm worried about isnt just the virus and shortages. It's what people panicking does. It's the videos of people being beaten in the street and locked in their homes.

China for all its flaws because its an authoritarian state has a mindset of a fear of authority. People tend to follow rules because they have been conditioned to.

In the UK I can see much more of a break down in law and order and vigilantism. Particularly racially aggrievated attacks.

Even if you stockpile, how do you deal with friends and family asking for help? How do you deal with aggressive neighbours?

Do the elderly and infirm living alone have more to fear from the virus or someone who sees them as an easy target to rob and steal food from?

I think the USA could be even worse on this front due to the number of weapons in circulation.

It could happen even if the death rate is reasonably low too simply due to panic breaking out.

Also what happens if work places are shut down? How many would have no income? How long could you pay the rent/mortgage? At least if you are already on benefits, you have a guaranteed income or more accurately you may be perceived to be (which is more relevant than the reality) particularly by people who have just lost their jobs and then have a six week universal credit wait to survive. This could lead to rising social tensions in its own right. A significant number of Brits live pay check to pay check.

In terms of stockpiling, I don't see much discussion of saving extra money, just in case things get really hard in either the short term or medium term financially.

The virus itself certainly isn't my only concern in a pandemic and won't be the only concern of Cobra members.

I watch too many disaster movies.

justdeckingthehalls1 · 09/02/2020 11:36

I'm surprised you're a medic and haven't looked up how different those cases were to the normal flu.

Oh I have. It's just "it's just flu, don't worry about it" is something I'm hearing all the time (on here and IRL) and is very similar to the party line still coming out of China.

The point I was making is this is very definitely not "just the flu"

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