Coronavirus. AIBU please calm me down

[Areyoucomingalong]

Hi guys. So we're down in South Africa at the moment and so far no reported cases. We're flying to attend a wedding next week and im so worried its making me physically ill :( the AIBU part is that we're just flying 2 hours to another province but like lots of counties we have a huge Chinese population and im only scared because of our baby. I'd really not like to go though hubby and other son couldn't give a shit and thinks im stupid but this virus is spreading so rapidly. Please tell me to calm the Ef down :(

Well if that’s the case then the mortality rate isn’t high then is it?

Obviously it’s not ideal.

Gosh, that Lancet article is frightening.
What's worrying me is that China is back at work next week as the New Year is over. There will be mass travel again as families return home.

I don’t want to sound patronising but that Lancet article isn’t remotely frightening if you read it properly. What it’s saying is that the current number of cases stands at 75,000+ and increasing. The death toll is 259. This means the death rate is not 2 or 3% but actually only 0.3%.

HJ82 definitely not overreacting. Better safe than sorry given that no one knows really how virulent it is. I’m sure more will come out over the next few days/weeks.

I don’t want to sound patronising but that Lancet article isn’t remotely frightening if you read it properly. What it’s saying is that the current number of cases stands at 75,000+ and increasing. The death toll is 259. This means the death rate is not 2 or 3% but actually only 0.3%.

I don't want to sound patronising either, but that's what I was referring to when I said that the initial death rate (3%) was probably due to lack of knowledge and pointed out that morbility can be a big problem. We shouldn't look only at death rates to measure the impact of an illness.

Having said that, there are some reports that the Chinese are hiding deaths, but I'm a bit sceptic about that.

What is scary about the article is that the virus may be virtually out of control already. Notice how fast it spreads and the doubling rate.
We may end up with a pandemic, on top of flu.

Fenella that's really not the point. It's too early to tell what the death rate will be. It's the infection rate that's worrying. If this starts spreading through the UK it's very worrying and the Nhs may well not cope.
It's having an huge impact on boarding schools and educational establishments where Asian students have been advised not to travel or meet overseas relatives until after exams. Or face a quarantine period somewhere. There's also a huge impact on business travel. It's affected my family drastically already .

Not being at all unreasonable: you have a baby and as a parent would do anything to minimise potential unnecessary risk. Although you would most probably be absolutely fine, I understsnd that given the picture so far, there are also a lot of unknowns surrounding the virus (and thus the degree of risk you would be taking is unknown, which feels scary as a parent). The incubation time is thought to be up to 14 days and it is possible that people are able to spread the virus while asymptomatic (though yet to be proven) so cases outside China could rise substantially over next few weeks. Yes the moratility rate is low but the number of severe cases reported is still relatively high according to the WHO reports. Babies have an underdeveloped immune system so could certainly be one of the more at risk groups for severe infection. Having said that, I am a bioscientist living in Vietnam but was (just about, armed with mask and hand gel) ok with hubby getting a flight to Thailand the other day where they now have 18 confirmed cases. I am watching the WHO website carefully and downloading the incident reports daily to inform me whether to send my 5 year old back to school after the Vietnsmese new year holiday on wednesday. The school is taking measures to take all student temperatures, allow them to wear masks, ensure frequent handwashing, etc, etc but I will make the decision for myself whether it is safe. There is a good podcast on the latest New Scientist that summarises the current state of play. All the best!

I found the Lancet article reassuring

Agree with whoever said upthread we need to sort out Chinese animal welfare practices now. Each one of these viruses is coming from Asia and it’s only a matter of time before it is deadly