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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think everyine has forgotten about next Frìday?

515 replies

malificent7 · 26/01/2020 08:55

Brexit isn't it? Im a remainer and i feel ok about it...at least my hysteria has died down. What about the rest of you?

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NiceGuyNeddie · 26/01/2020 14:26

Well nothing's changed yet and most people just seemed to want someone to 'make it to stop' so they could get on with their lives without hearing about Brexit all the time, and that's happened.

Unless/Until something happens that directly affects people negatively - rising prices, travel issues, job losses directly attributable to Brexit - then I don't think there'll be much discussion amongst the general population

Clavinova · 26/01/2020 14:29

Where is the information about ecomic growth coming from Bluntness? Iirc, the FT's economists' survey doesn't predict any growth at all for 2020.

She probably saw this last week:

"20 January 2020 The IMF’s assessment of the UK prospects over next two year is relatively upbeat."

"It predicts that growth will “stabilise” at 1.4% in 2020 and 1% in 2021, weak by UK historical standards but growth none-the-less and stronger growth than the IMF is predicting for Germany, France and Japan."

www.itv.com/news/2020-01-20/brexit-international-monetary-fund-forecast-imf-britain-growth/

certification of wood pallets

The Timber Packaging & Pallet Confederation (TIMCON) and Defra respond to ‘scaremongering’ no deal Brexit story;

"TIMCON president John Dye said the organisation’s work with Defra, the Forestry Commission and the EU made this an extreme scenario. “While we are supportive of a negotiated deal, we are planning for every eventuality. Scaremongering in the media such as this is a distraction to the good work and discussions we’ve held on the possible outcomes of Brexit to date,” he said.“Thanks to this, the negative impacts described in this article are highly unlikely."

www.packagingnews.co.uk/news/timcon-responds-scaremongering-no-deal-brexit-story-09-07-2019

Already the Tories are showing they're willing to stick it to less affluent areas of the UK, despite their election promises of more help for the north.

Misleading article/headline - the analysis (by a Labour think tank) is a forecast and only looks at one policy area. Buried half way down the Guardian article;

"The analysis models the likely differential effect on councils’ adult social care funding allocations from 2021 using a proposed new government methodology used to direct funds to local authorities."

The "new methodology" would have been decided under May/Hammond. We haven't had Sajid Javid's first Budget yet.

Blibbyblobby · 26/01/2020 14:36

@MasakaBuzz

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. It won’t surprise you to know I disagree with some of them (and might surprise you more that some I partially agree with!) but I do appreciate a fuller view of what’s behind your comment.

I’m not responding to the content itself not because I don’t value it or have responses I’d like to make, but because I know Brexit supporters in the past have (rightly or wrongly) taken people disagreeing or dissecting their reasons for voting Brexit as attacks and I don’t want to start that again. However if you are interested let me know and I will get stuck in!

WhereShallWeMoveTo · 26/01/2020 14:59

not all, but some – were persuaded to leave because they believed promises like the one about the NHS made on the side of the bus.

This is often cited as the big lie that tipped us all over the edge to a Leave majority. Can anyone tell me (or point me in the direction of a credible link) exactly what the apparent lie entailed in more detail?

‘We send 350 million a week to the EU. Let’s fund our NHS instead.’

Personally I don’t think it was written in such a way that categorically promised ALL of that 350 million a week being spent on the NHS instead, as a simple and direct swap. But clearly many people do seem to think it implied or even promised that.

Is there more to it? Was that amount of money ever explicitly promised in its entirety and then the promise retracted or denied? Was there more than just the campaign poster on a bus?

TurnTurnTurn · 26/01/2020 15:07

MasakaBuzz: Personally, I have never called Brexit voters "thick", any more than I would use that word of people who hand over money to competent con artists. What I will observe is that the UK population have been lied to and influenced to take positions contrary to their interests and reality.

"I repeat - if the E.U. is so wonderful, why couldn’t Europhiles explain why in simple enough language that all of us thick Brexiteers could understand?"

??? You haven't repeated anything and there don't seem to be any questions in your earlier comments on this thread at all (unless you're posting under multiple names).

In listing a set of your own opinions, you haven't done anything to make case for Brexit. When I look at this, I half wonder if you're joking.

Do you really not know that the European Parliament is elected or are you pretending? Do you genuinely not realise that the European Council is composed of elected Ministers / Heads of State from member states (i.e. our PM and Ministers leading on relevant portfolios)? The European Commission, directed and overseen by these two, is the equivalent of a civil service, and is therefore appointed, as the UK civil service is appointed.

This isn't specialist stuff - it's all information you could get from a few minutes on Google or reading the intro to a book at the library.

If you really wanted to know more about the EU and how the UK is likely to be impacted by Brexit, you could easily pick an area of interest to you and read the impact reports, analysis and Brexit guidance published online over the past few years by sector leaders and experts. There's lots to choose from across business and industry, science and research, higher education etc... There's no pro-Brexit equivalent making an equal and opposite case in the sectors of key interest to me.

Deadsouls · 26/01/2020 15:07

I have not forgotten but choosing to ignore it until such a time when I feel the energy to become engaged with whatever movement remain/rejoin will coalesce around.

Also as it's inevitable there is no use fighting against it at this stage.

It is over to the government and leave voters. This belongs to them now and they have a lot of prove as we've repeatedly been told that it's going to be the best thing for this country. So let's see if those promises get fulfilled.

There is something quite liberating about turning it over, it is not my responsibility. I didn't want it, didn't vote for it, did what I could within my capacity to oppose it.

TesticulumAdBexit · 26/01/2020 15:09

I shall fly a flag and get ready for the start of the REJOIN campaign on 1st February

To think everyine has forgotten about next Frìday?
Blibbyblobby · 26/01/2020 15:09

"TIMCON president John Dye said the organisation’s work with Defra, the Forestry Commission and the EU made this an extreme scenario. “While we are supportive of a negotiated deal, we are planning for every eventuality. Scaremongering in the media such as this is a distraction to the good work and discussions we’ve held on the possible outcomes of Brexit to date,” he said.“Thanks to this, the negative impacts described in this article are highly unlikely."

In other words there would have been problems but they’ve put in a load of work to mitigate the risk. Effort and resources have been diverted from delivering real progress into just keeping us where we already were, but in the current climate this counts as good news. Thanks Brexit.

WhereShallWeMoveTo · 26/01/2020 15:10

Simon would you mind telling me which country your BF is having is surgery in and what the healthcare system there is run/funded compared to the NHS?

TesticulumAdBexit · 26/01/2020 15:12

My image for flag flying got lost.

To think everyine has forgotten about next Frìday?
busybarbara · 26/01/2020 15:14

What makes you think that extremism will become legal after we leave the EU?

What you call “extremism” is just common sense to others. People like Tommy Robinson or Nigel Farage are not saying anything actually offensive or controversial from a common sense point of view but the EU hates them being in politics. Once we’ve left hopefully more true people’s heroes can get involved in politics rather than suits who understand how to deal with EU rules and regs

MasakaBuzz · 26/01/2020 15:22

@ Blibbyblobby

Feel free.

My baseline assumption with politicians regardless of hue is when they open their mouths they are lying.

I don’t see Brexit as the country moving into the sunny uplands where everything is going to be perfect and Bulldogs are going to run free amongst us. I think it’s going to be difficult, and the benefits will take many years to come. However I do think there will be benefits eventually.

The Referendum on the E.U. shouldn't have been in 2016. It should have been before the Maastricht Treaty was signed. It was at that point that the Common Market became the EU, and the direction of travel became apparent.

I am not comfortable with the lack of democratic accountability of the EU.

I also don’t see that The EU actually benefits the poorer in our society. The influx of Eastern European workers has forced wages down (It’s a basic supply and demand issue).

All of those workers also need housing, education and health care. I think it has placed stresses on our infra structure, that wasn’t planned for. It doesn’t effect the political elite. They won’t be on waiting lists for operations or housing.

I don’t have children, but I truly feel for the youngsters I know - the less academic ones who are struggling to find work that pays enough for decent housing and to raise a family.

Anyways that’s my view. Your turn.

Blibbyblobby · 26/01/2020 15:31

Personally I don’t think it was written in such a way that categorically promised ALL of that 350 million a week being spent on the NHS instead, as a simple and direct swap. But clearly many people do seem to think it implied or even promised that.

You’ve misunderstood. The lie/deception wasn’t that there was a commitment to the NHS (although Leave were certainly happy to float it as a goal), it was that 350M per week would become available at all.

Even at the time, it was known that 350M was a gross amount before the rebate, so even if there was no economic impact whatsoever from Brexit, 350M would not be freed up. So to give the figure 350M in the context of other uses for the money outside the EU was an outright lie.

Furthermore, it was generally accepted (and since proved to be the case) that leaving the EU will have at least a short term negative impact on GDP and therefore (unless taxes raised to cover the shortfall, which wasn’t on the bus) there was unlikely to be any money freed up by leaving the EU, and in fact in the short term at least there would be less money available for public spending.

So that’s the “not technically a lie but certainly a conscious deception” - that leaving the EU would mean any more money for UK public spending.

Whether you think people should have somehow known better than to believe the bus, there is no doubt that Dominic Cummings believes it swung the vote for Leave because he has said so.

I have a question for those on the Leave side: if people weren’t supposed to believe the bus, what was its purpose? I mean, it wasn’t cheap, so if you don’t think it would have changed anyone’s mind, why did they bother?

NeckPainChairSearch · 26/01/2020 15:38

What you call “extremism” is just common sense to others. People like Tommy Robinson or Nigel Farage are not saying anything actually offensive or controversial from a common sense point of view

There we go. I think we can safely say that the drip drip effect of normalizing extremism is going pretty well.

Longdistance · 26/01/2020 15:47

It’s my birthday, payday and as it’s the end of dry January for me and I can have a drink when I get to the theatre...Oh and it’s Brexit.

WhereShallWeMoveTo · 26/01/2020 15:47

Blibby* thanks for explaining. Do you know how much rebate we would get from the gross 350 million at the time by the way? I suppose that would have been our net/actual contribution per week to the EU?

BananaChocolateLump · 26/01/2020 15:50

Hope everyone who voted leave is pleased with themselves. They'll be deporting EU nationals en Masse very soon. Hardworking people who have given their lives to this country.

But hey at least that's less brown folk in your supermarkets eh? Cause that's all you wanted. Never mind that the economy is fucked now and our government will be making horrendous deals with Trump and his trigger happy WW3 ideals.

Have fun eh!

Blibbyblobby · 26/01/2020 15:53

@MasakaBuzz

Ok :) I will do it in two hits, your original reply and this later one.

1) The fact there has been peace in Europe since 1945 is nothing to do with the E.U. It’s to do with NATO.

Ok. I disagree with you because I see NATO as relevant at the point hostilities could arise, whereas having a common interest and supranational rules via the EU has meant we haven’t been as likely to split along nationalist lines in the first place. That’s not to say NATO isn’t also a brake, just I think it’s a second and the EU is soothing tensions / providing a safety valve / creating a network of shared interests with our neighbours that mitigates the tendency to aggression against them. I also think given Trump’s animosity to NATO, having other supranational commitments is a good backup. However, I see your reasoning.

2) Common standards are bull excrement. Look at animal welfare and tell me there are common standards. Many of our standards were far higher than the ones that have been imposed upon us. We don’t need some overpaid official from the E.U. to do that. We have our own overpaid politicians for that.

If we gold plate it’s our additional choice not something the EU required us to do (and also belies the claim that we can’t make our own laws!). I will rephrase to say “minimum standards”, ie we are all protected from a race to the bottom. I think that’s something that will become very clear as we find ourselves outside the EU.

3) As for clout - The USA and China are so big, I doubt the EU has any clout regardless.

As of 2017, the top 3 by GDP were US, then EU, then China. EU has significant clout. We can expect both US and EU to decline with respect to China but EU is still one of the huge global players.

4) The Greater Good is having politicians accountable via the ballot box. The EU leaders are not. For those people who mentioned Dominic Cummings. If Boris goes, so does Cummings.

Ok, this one has been done to death so I will just link to full facts. fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-democracy/ I don’t agree with you and I very much doubt most of the people who claim the EU is undemocratic made any effort to find out how it works before accepting that slur.

5) Look at Youth Unemployment across the EU and tell me just how youth unemployment rates of 30+ % in Italy and Greece benefit those youth. How are the people of Greece benefiting from not being able to get medicine, and having their country turned into a gigantic refugee camp benefiting them?

Ok, so you have a few items here.

I agree the Austerity imposed on Greece via the EU has lead to significant problems from the Greeks’ point of view. It is, however, a complex situation and the EU is not the sole cause. The critical event was of course the GFC which destabilised eceonomies everywhere so where we are still feeling the fallout (the UK’s version being Austerity then Brexit, so jury’s still out whether it’s ultimately going to be worse for us). Greece’s pre-existing system especially the tax loopholes and pension commitments is also a contributor, as is the crisis caused by the country’s 2015 referendum.

With hindsight could the EU have done better? Almost certainly, as can be said in many situations not least Brexit itself! Would Greece have done better if it has never joined the EU? I think not, it would have had at least one debt crisis and default by now. The EU is preventing that happening, for better or worse. I certainly expect the EU will continue to learn and improve from the Greek mistakes.

BTW, Greek unemployment is finally starting to fall, let’s hope a corner is being turned.

The medicine issue is fundamentally a symptom of the overall crisis, so I guess maybe you are referring to the EU saying as part of the bailout Greece needs to switch to generics instead of branded pharmaceuticals? If so that seems fair enough to me, it’s no secret that there are huge incentives paid by pharma companies to encourage use of expensive branded medicines over identical generics and apparently there is some sort of cultural snobbery over generics in Greece which inflates their public health costs, so tackling that seems reasonable.

Not enough space to go into the refugee situation as it’s a huge topic in its own right, but if you give a bit more detail about the EU-specific concerns as opposed to the wider political, environmental and geographic drivers I can give it a shot.

A one size all system never works. Individual countries have individual needs. The EU does not accommodate that.

I agree to some extent. The EU is about joining together and having best fit for the many rather than bespoke, so pointing to any one instance will show someone was disadvantaged by the compromise. Over time the expectation is that the compromises even out so it’s more effective and gives a better outcome than the costs and frictions of lots of special cases.

You may not quite see this yet, but there’s another force working very hard to standardise global systems and that is the commercial interests of the multinational companies. They absolutely are lobbying and putting pressure on countries to standardise in ways that benefit those big companies (think Amazon pushing for tax breaks in return for locating large centres). Frankly, I think we’ve got a much better chance of protecting our own interests against Google, Amazon, nestle, Unilever et al in the 21st century as a member of the EU than a small standalone government.

WhereShallWeMoveTo · 26/01/2020 15:53

Erm, I don’t think all that in percentage terms a great many EU migrants in the UK are brown so I’m not sure how that’s going to work Banana

Blibbyblobby · 26/01/2020 15:55

Do you know how much rebate we would get from the gross 350 million at the time by the way? I suppose that would have been our net/actual contribution per week to the EU?

fullfact.org/europe/350-million-week-boris-johnson-statistics-authority-misuse/

busybarbara · 26/01/2020 16:01

There we go. I think we can safely say that the drip drip effect of normalizing extremism is going pretty well.

If you look at things Nigel Farage was saying years ago, nearly all of it is normal policy now. Similarly if you look at the BNP manifesto from early 2000s, most of it is stuff the Tories promised at the last election too. Is this a drip drip of extremism or were those views not really that controversial in the first place?

Terfin2 · 26/01/2020 16:06

I'm going to a gig in Camden - a British band with a Dutch singer - and may drink some European alcohol. I will be with like-minded remain types and we can be sad together, but joyful at the music (The Dave Foster Band - check them out!)

Sgtmajormummy · 26/01/2020 16:06

I shall be sitting at home with a stiff drink, holding a midnight vigil of one (Central European time) and celebrating the fact that I will soon be losing rights I took for granted as a European resident.

lilgreen · 26/01/2020 16:07

Pay day? No not forgotten, been a long time coming.

Blibbyblobby · 26/01/2020 16:17

People like Tommy Robinson or Nigel Farage are not saying anything actually offensive or controversial from a common sense point of view

This site has a collection of some of the offensive tweets from Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (Robinson’s real name). I hope you reconsider your assessment of the man.

resistinghate.org/tommy-robinson-and-his-hate-tweets/

It also has the deeply unpleasant spectacle of comments justifying YL’s attacks on Muslims on the grounds that Islam is a religion not a race, as if that makes vile hate-inciting speech ok. Since everyone knows Racism is bad, if you are not an actual technical racist you must be ok, right?