To not get the panic about Corona Virus?

[speakout]

I am not getting it- can someone explain?

Less than 1000- people infected, 26 dead. Why the hype?
I understand a few pharma companies making anti virals have made a stack of money in the past week.
In global health terms these stats are insignificant surely.
Why all the headlines?
I suspect we have many pathogens jumping species barriers on a regular basis, most probably fade away and don' t make headlines.

Can someone explain.

I watch the walking dead, I’m full prepared for when it comes 😂

From most reports it seems its killed those who were "weak" or had
co-morbidites so much the same as most any flu.

Thus far it dosent "seem" to be in the same league as the 1918 pandemic that took out 50 million worldwide and furthermore generally took out the fit ones whos immune system over reacted, where as the ones who were older wern't so badly affected.

For a lot of people they caught it in the morning and were dead the next day:(

But in those days thye didnt knowhat a virus was and the knowlege now is of course far greater but it does remain toi be seen how this will pan out;!

www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

I wouldn't say I'm concerned... wary maybe? I'm immunocompromised so I'm the same with anything - outbreaks of measles etc

Consider the scenarios.

It's nothing much and we do nothing much. Result: Nothing much.

It's nothing much and we go full on trying to contain it. Result: Some economic disruption, some pharma companies may benefit.

It's a big deal and we go full on trying to contain it, develop treatments and vaccines, and so on (and succeed). Result: Some economic disruption, some pharma companies may benefit more.

It's a big deal and we do nothing much. Result: Tens or maybe hundreds of millions of people die.

In that light, it makes a lot of sense to take action.

By WHO lab recorded deaths swine flu killed 18,000 but most public health experts believe the figure was closer to 150,000.
DH was a junior doctor then and he saw some people die and he was really affected by it. Particularly pregnant women who were particularly susceptible.

It sounds very scary until people stop and look at general statistics of people getting ill of annual flu strains and that depending on various years and virulent strains,291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year.

Keep an eye on R0 (R-zero) rates i.e how many people each infected person passes it to. For this coronavirus (SARS and MERS are also coronaviruses) it is about 1.4 i.e. each person infects 1.4 people. That is not a very pandemic rate particularly if -as looks like the case - 1.4 represents patients and family carers not taking protective measures. So it should drop, assuming 1.4 was an accurate rate to start with.

The source of it makes me feel quite ill

And posting a DM headline is a prime example of the shite tabloid media whipping up fear and frenzy.

I’ve now got my DM reading mother in a snit with me because I told her to not panic buy craploads of vitamins against ‘that Chinese disease’.

Every year, worst winter ever, hottest summer ever, worst flu ever. Meanwhile the Tories are burrowing away burying all sorts of shite scampering towards Brexit.

Let’s hope we don’t need anti-virals from Europe eh. Or gloves. Or saline. Oh wait, DM Brexit is super-double-plus good but we’re all going to die of snake flu (yes, I think one of the red tops called it this).

It can transmit through unprotected eyes very new transmission

@littlebillie

Can you link where you got that from?

“appreciate big pharma doesn't "care". But some companies have seen share prices skyrocket in he past week, making many millions in just a few days.
Worth the hype for those individuals surely”

Which companies are these then? Do you think their CEOs are controlling the media?

@littlebillie I didn’t think they’d figured out the source animal yet?

Oh what a bloody scary world we live in.

I'm wary, probably because dc1 has serious asthma so would be at higher risk, however there's not a lot anybody can do. It will probably become obvious over the next couple of weeks whether it is going to be a major problem or not.

@HuloBeraal your username made me chuckle!
Popped by to say thanks for clearing the confusion I had about coronavirus.

Ah someone who knows what it means. I have 3 of them btw. Each more nyaka than the next and not very hulo like at all.

I wasn’t too worried initially, but what’s concerning me, is that the actions of the chinese government don’t match the actions you would expect given the numbers reported, which makes me inclined to believe that we are not getting the full story here. You don’t effectively quarantine a large densely populated city for no good reason. Also, some of the images/stories floating around on twitter, particularly inside the hospitals and of doctors and nurses buckling under the strain, is another potential indicator of this being really quite serious.

Time will tell I guess. Fingers crossed I am wrong!

Well @tobedtoMNandfart and @HuloBeraal explained the potential cause for concern pretty well; it depends on how easily it is spread. One of the doctors at work today said they think it will end up being a pandemic, and that they don't trust the figures published by the Chinese government so far - they lied and downplayed the number of people who had SARS back in 2000ish.

Saying that, on a personal level I'm not worried at all.

Good we have a "hubby expert" to mansplain things.. Don't be ridiculous, he's an infectious diseases expert. I'm pretty sure PP would also have said 'my sister/my mother'. He's not mansplaining - he's non-infectious-disease-consultant-plaining.

Minus the 'non' at the beginning

It can transmit through unprotected eyes very new transmission

Lol, what does "transmit through unprotected eyes" even mean? Sounds scary though right?That's not new. Viruses can be transmitted by contaminated hands touching the eyes, nose or face or if someone coughs or sneezes into your face. Everyone knows this

It's not Big Pharma. Our guess at home is population control. Great timing, not just when it comes to need to lower emissions (which businesses and gobs just won't do), but also when it comes to spread through travel...
We are starting to make our tin hats🙈

Lol at the mansplaining hysterical shout....

@LazyDaisey saw the headline about eyes in DailyMail. Apparently some doctor claims he got it after not wearing goggles

It can transmit through air very new transmission 😱