to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

mummy I've lost your original question. Say it one more time really carefully worded.

My 1/1024 was the right answer to my question with the information given in the question

It really wasn't.

You've shown on this thread that you don't understand probability.
I don't think you get the Gamblers Paradox.

You are right on one thing.
Gambling is for mugs.

My original point was if you kept win then your going to lose as there is a 1/3 chance of a wrong door.

My landlord bet.
Was a landlord knows someone who drinks in his pub.
He knows it is a game show that is all.
He knows that the person can win a car.
So he offers odds of 1/1024 for 10 wins in a row.

So he offers odds of 1/1024 for 10 wins in a row

Then he is an idiot for offering odds on 10 wins when he doesn't know the probability of a win happening.

My original point was if you kept win then your going to lose as there is a 1/3 chance of a wrong do

Not true.
There is a chance that you will win 10 in a row
There is a chance you could win 1000 in a row
A million in a row

There is a chance you could never lose.

Do you watch game shows on TV.
Have you ever seen 10 wins in a row?
We all know that most contestants seem to lose.

We all know that most contestants seem to lose

Have you ever seen 10 wins in a row

It's rare. But it can happen.
As can 100000000 wins.

Because of the probability of outcomes.

I am going to ask a simple question.
I roll a dice twice.
What are the chances of rolling double 6?

1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36.

1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36

Great

What are the chances of 10 6's in a row?

1/6 power of ten.
Same as my odds of win lose are
1/2 power of ten.

Stop making Italy 6/1 in your example! It would be 5/1 if all were equal!! (This is also annoying me)

My landlord bet.
Was a landlord knows someone who drinks in his pub.
He knows it is a game show that is all.
He knows that the person can win a car.
So he offers odds of 1/1024 for 10 wins in a row.
That would be very stupid of him.

I realise this post was two pages ago, but the 6/1 odds are annoying me!

Same as my odds of win lose are

No - because winning was 2/3 chance.

The landlord has it wrong. The landlord shouldn't give odds without knowing the outcome.

Do you think it's possible for someone to roll 10,000 6s in a row?

A run of a whole series of a show would be boring and the show would be cancelled.
Landlord has a safe bet.

1/6 power of ten.
Same as my odds of win lose are
1/2 power of ten.
What if the game wa roll at 6, win a car.
Roll 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, you lose

The outcomes are win or lose.

What are the odds of winning the game ten times in a row?

The landlord is not wrong
It is his bet to make.
Can Mr C bring home 10 cars.

Spamantha
Not my question.
Your question so different problem.

Landlord has a safe bet

Well it depends how often he did that bet.
If he offered people the same bet every week at those odds, he would go bust eventually.
He thinks an event is less likely to occur than it actually is.
So he offers odds on what he thinks will happen.

Which means that if he keeps doing it regularly, he will lose.

I really think there are people out there like that.

What gave it away??

Your answer was wrong mummmy, you've repeatedly been wrong. Every extra example introduced has not been to try and confuse, it's been people trying to come up with alternative ways to make you get it in the hope that the penny would drop.

It clearly is not going to, given that your definition of the correct answer is "what would the landlord of my local pub who knows nothing about the game or probability think is the right answer".

Mummy, you didn't take my bet. I'll repeat it for you, I'll offer odds of 1/3 chance of you winning, 2/3 chance of me winning. Would you take it?
The reason I'm offering you this bet is because immediately after saying you were happy, (implying that you understood the issue), you then continued to state that you would stick with your original door, claiming that 1/3 chance of winning was good enough for you (thus proving you really don't understand).

Can Mr C bring home 10 cars

There is no Mr C.

And yes - someone can bring home 10 cars.
It would happen 15 runs in a 1000 runs.Assuming they always switched.
The landlord thinks it would happen 0.97 in a 1000 runs

The landlord is making a bad bet.

If someone understands how best to play the Monty Hall Game (I.e. switch every time), their odds of winning ten games in a row are 1 in 57.66.

As a general rule, it is stupid to offer odds on something without knowing the probability of the outcomes.

The landlord, in your example, is a fool.

The reason I'm offering you this bet is because immediately after saying you were happy, (implying that you understood the issue), you then continued to state that you would stick with your original door, claiming that 1/3 chance of winning was good enough for you (thus proving you really don't understand

This.

Not swap at the start because the odds are ok but swap later....

As a general rule, it is stupid to offer odds on something without knowing the probability of the outcomes

Good advice