to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

Someone posted youtube of Derren Brown doing the coin toss, took him nine hours of filming to do it

So....what does that prove?

I opened this thread smugly thinking, I'll k know this, I have been helping ds2 with his maths homework lately, this will be easy.

Now I am thinking oh fuck off maths and I'm going to have a bath and some wine.

opened this thread smugly thinking, I'll k know this, I have been helping ds2 with his maths homework lately, this will be easy

I wonder if we will get to 1000 posts and then thread 2

The OP had a friend disagreeing with them not me.
I told you don't gamble. No point.
My friend can see my point, about the show only having two outcomes.

about the show only having two outcomes.

Yes, but the outcomes are not necessarily as likely as each other.

My friend can see my point, about the show only having two outcomes

Yes - there are 2 outcomes.

But each outcome has 2 different probabilities.

Which
Is
The
Whole
Point

Your saying about the lottery, not me.
Yet again putting out misinformation.
But I expect nothing less of you.

What on earth is this stupidity?

You are saying that, in the Monty Hall problem, because there are only 2 possible outcomes (win or lose), your landlord would give you 1 in 1,024 odds of winning 10 times in a row.

Because, apparently, your landlord is incapable of understanding that, just because there are two outcomes, they are not equally likely.

The lottery example is based on the exact same principle. There are only two possible outcomes, win or lose. Obviously losing is a lot more likely than winning but your landlord apparently treats all outcomes as being equally probable.

Because, apparently, your landlord is incapable of understanding that, just because there are two outcomes, they are not equally likely

I really think there are people out there like that.

The probability only needs to work on win lose.
The landlord is not doing a maths degree.
Oh he said no about the OP bet, seem your not above rewording the bet to win.

The probability only needs to work on win lose

The landlord is not doing a maths degree

This is GCSE Maths.

mummy If the landlord knows the result he is betting on a certainty, there are no probabilities involved for him at all.

So, say I know the result of the Womens FA cup 4 round tie between Southampton Women FC and Crystal Palace LFC and I give you odds on S'oton winning of 3-1 and CP winning of 1-5 you'd be stupid to take the bet at all because I'm not going to give odds where I lose.

The probability only needs to work on win lose.
The landlord is not doing a maths degree.
Oh he said no about the OP bet, seem your not above rewording the bet to win.
Anyone else want to have a go at translating this?

@mummmy2017

Ok - so I am going to do something 10 times in a row
I could win or lose each time
What are the odds of me getting 10 wins?

That seems a straightforward question

I did say all bets were placed pre shows recording.
Chomalungma you already posted if the landlord know nothing about the show the 1/1024 odds were right. Yet now your word shifting again.

"Which exit off the roundabout?"

"It doesn't matter, the chance of us getting to where we want to go is equal for each exit"

The landlord says he will pay out when you reach 102 years of age, just to check the ops worked long term.

Chomalungma you already posted if the landlord know nothing about the show the 1/1024 odds were right

Did you read my answer:

Now - if the landlord does not know the idea of the game at all and just knows you have to pick a door out of 2, then the odds he offers you of 10 wins is 1 in 1024

I then said what the correct odds were and that the Landlord was an idiot because he assumed that the probability of each door being correct was 1 in 2.

@KidLorneRoll

So @mummy2017

What odds would you offer me?
I am doiing something 10 times.
I could win or lose
What are the chances of me winning 10 times?

Mummy has already answered this, a few pages back she said that the odds of winning a game show 10 times in a row is 1 in 1,024

Doesn't matter how stacked the odds of the show are, those are always your odds, apparently

Ooh I've a good one.

What odds will you give me on my DD failing GCSE French in June? I mean, she will either pass or fail …? She's a hard worker.

What odds will you give me on my DD failing GCSE French in June? I mean, she will either pass or fai

God knows how children pass their GCSEs.
It must be very hard to get more than a 4 in all their GCSEs.

As far as I can see the most common thing 10 times in a row is posts in this thread.

I have no interest in your bets.
I don't bet for money.
Each bet you proposed is a different question to the one I asked.
I only wanted the odds on my question.
Only my question.
That really didn't seem hard.
Your extra info changes the question, so your answers were not to my question.
Your answers seem right for your questions.
My 1/1024 was the right answer to my question with the information given in the question.

chom Won't you give me evens on passing and evens on not passing?

I'll place a bet of £10,000?