to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

When you know if they got a car, or didn't

I can't believe I am still doing this.

You agree that the chance of getting a car is 2/3 if you swap.

Probaility theory states that the chances of a 2/3 event happening 10 times is 2/3 ^10

Now - if the landlord does not know the idea of the game at all and just knows you have to pick a door out of 2, then the odds he offers you of 10 wins is 1 in 1024

If the landlord does know the idea of the game and knows that the doors have different probabilities, then he should offer the odds of 2/3 ^10

Because that's the correct probability of getting 10 wins in a row where you have a 2/3 probability.

happy now

Do you still want to play poker with us all mummy? 😉

appy now

So would you always advise someone to swap (even from day 1)

And

Do the odds of you winning change if the previous 10 people also won?

Or will they always be 2/3 if you swap regardless of what happened before?

Told you I don't gamble
I always lose, even on a 99 %.
So I just donate to raffles.

Your odds of winning the Monty Hall problem 10 times in a row depends on how you play it.

If you swap your door every game, there is a 1 in 57.66 chance that you will win ten in a row.

If you keep your original door, there is a 1 in 59,049 chance that you will will ten in a row.

If you sometimes swap and sometimes stick, your odds are somewhere in the middle.

Do you still want to play poker with us all

I think she should put some money on Italy to win the 6 Nations.
After all, they haven't won the 6 Nations for ages so they must be due a win.
And for some bizarre reason, the bookies are offering 500 - 1 instead of 6- 1

I always lose, even on a 99%

You clearly haven't done those games long enough then

One show only I want to stick. 1/3 chance is an ok bet.
If more than one show always change.
Never disagreed about door odds .
My original question was about non TV watching landlord, who take the win no win option, . As you stated in the post above.

Your question about the landlord is absolutely fucking ridiculous and irrelevant though.

@Spamantha

I think it's more interesting to look at the producers perspective.

Assuming there are 9 shows in a week.
Assuming each person swaps
What are the chances of giving away 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 or 9 cars in the week?

That yells for a table or a graph.

I wonder what would happen if this did come up as a game show nowadays?

Or a variation on it.....

My friend has just put £10 on Italy for a laugh.
He thinks this thread is funny and keeps asking for updates.

One show only I want to stick. 1/3 chance is an ok bet
If more than one show always change

I am going to regret this.

Why?
Why not change at the start?

Let's say that, in the national lottery, there weren't any prizes for anything short of getting all 6 balls. Your possible outcomes are win or lose, with nothing in between.

Your landlord would apparently think the odds of you winning the national lottery ten times in a row is 1 in 1,024.

What are the odds your friend is laughing at you, not with you?

My friend has just put £10 on Italy for a laugh

That's how Bookmakers make their money.

Saying that, Leicester did win at 1500 / 1

Your landlord would apparently think the odds of you winning the national lottery ten times in a row is 1 in 1,024

Your landlord has been misinformed and is giving odds based on no information

If I said that I could win or lose a game, and I was playing 10 games - before offering me odds, he should ask me the chances of winning a game. Otherwise he's an idiot.

Your landlord would apparently think the odds of you winning the national lottery ten times in a row is 1 in 1,024

If I was going to have 10 operations in a row, and told the landlord I was having 10 operations and I could live or die, he would offer me odds of 1024 to 1 of surviving 10 operations.

I would take those odds if I was having minor surgery.
If it was major heart surgery, I would think those odds might be too low.

You should also consider firing your idiot landlord as your maths tutor.

The probability of a coin landing heads 10 times in a row in exactly 10 throws is 1 in 1024 if the coin is a fair coin.

(However, if you let me toss the coin an infinite amount of times then the probability of at some point getting 10 heads in a row tends to 1 (certainty).)

If the coin is actually biased (eg made of two metals one on either side then the probability of 10 heads in a row changes to be p^10 where p is the probability any throw is heads.

Your saying about the lottery, not me.
Yet again putting out misinformation .
But I expect nothing less of you.

Someone posted youtube of Derren Brown doing the coin toss, took him nine hours of filming to do it.

Mummy, i think I'd like a bet with you.
I'll offer odds of 1/3 chance of you winning, 2/3 chance of me winning. Would you take it?

What are the odds your friend is laughing at you, not with you?

😆

And is this the same friend who was disagreeing with you last night?

Yet again putting out misinformation
But I expect nothing less of you

Come on - this has been a reasonably pleasant thread.

So this Landlord knows that you have are going to have 10 operations.
He offers you odds of 1024 to 1 because he thinks that you can survive or die.
Is he being sensible?