Coronavirus are you worried?

[CountryGirl1234]

So this virus has infected 600+ already and seems to be picking up pace. It’ll be in the UK any day, if it’s not already. AIBU to think this is going to have a big fallout and are you concerned?

amp.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/23/coronavirus-china-virus-flu-scotland-testing-wuhan-live-news-updates

Yes but its the spread they are worried about. if 50% of the Chinese population got it 2% is a million people. That is HUGE

And again as I have said you cannot look at the chinese reponse from a western perspective. The way they handle everything is quite different.

@Quartz2208 That's true, but wont that many people die in China from normal flu in a year? I don't know the figures but surely close to a million at least would be normal in a population of that size?

This is an interesting read and may go someway to explain the panic in China. I think the spotlight has been shone on them and then can no longer this one up to the people

www.caixinglobal.com/2019-02-21/why-arent-people-in-china-dying-of-the-flu-101382286.html

www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml

China reported 143 flu deaths last year compared to US 11000. They have been downplaying it for years. I think because they are forced to publish the correct figures and this goes against the belief you dont get the flu in China it is causing panic across the country.

Very little has occured as yet outside of CHina

Yes

Without sounding harsh and un sympathetic ... maybe this is Mother Nature’s way of sustaining the planet. The weak and old perish but the young and fit are able to keep us going.

We are living longer with more “lifestyle” (hate that victim blaming word) diseases that cost a lot of money to pay for. We are keeping alive people who would have died years ago.down side is the money for health and social care is finite so it needs to be spent wisely. So honest question...who would you pay to keep alive?

Baby x is 4 weeks old who was premature but likely to make a full recovery
best friend Y who has motor neurone disease but her treatment is not on the nhs so needs to self fund to live another 12 months.

@Quartz2208 Those are interesting reads. They also say that only deaths which can be directly attributed to the initial illness are classed as flu deaths, rather than dying from pneumonia which arises as a result of the flu.

If that's the case and coronavirus deaths are being counted the same way, the death toll could actually be much higher. People having heart attacks due to the virus or fatal asthma attacks won't be included in the figures. That is really worrying. And disingenuous of the Chinese governments method of recording.

best friend Y who has motor neurone disease but her treatment is not on the nhs so needs to self fund to live another 12 months

What if Y is the mother of baby X and wants to see her child through the first trimester of its life and teach the baby how to form secure attachments during its first year?

I'm now fairly convinced that it's Just a matter of time before it reaches UK & spreads P2P here. Will we have masses of people in N95 masks everywhere? Our hospitals can cope with a bad flu season (badly, but they cope) but can they cope with bad flu + Wuhan-CoV sweeping thru, even if only sweeping thru limited communities?

Now am minded to believe this will be very big indeed. Will be commented on for a century to come. The facemask manufacturers are gonna make a huge profit.

Reuter's is now reporting a 5th case in France, which is the daughter of one of the previous 4 patients.

What they haven't clarified is whether she accompanied her father over from China, ie whether she contracted it in China or through contact with her father in France.

The weak and old perish but the young and fit are able to keep us going
That isn’t necessarily the case though. The young and fit have stronger immune systems which trigger a stronger response to the virus, resulting in a “cytokine storm” - an overproduction of immune cells which inflames the lungs and causes fluid buildup, leading to pneumonia and death. The very young and the very old have weaker immune systems so they don’t experience such an excessively strong immune response and thus survive. The news is already reporting that patients with severe cases of coronavirus have been observed to have higher levels of cytokines.

SirChing yes exactly it is hard to know exactly what the Chinese Government is and isnt reporting. They have always had such tight control over the population (which considering its size is immense) that this could cause them to lose control - which is in part causing the measures they are putting in place.

Clearly Flu has been underreported for years. Its hard to know with this whether now we are seeing the full picture because I am not sure who is reporting? its is WHO or the Chinese GOvernment

Our hospitals can cope with a bad flu season (badly, but they cope) but can they cope with bad flu + Wuhan-CoV sweeping thru, even if only sweeping thru limited communities?

Interestingly I read somewhere that the CDC in America were saying that people who hadn't already been vaccinated should get the flu vaccine now. Not because it will help them individually against CoV but because a) will reduce strain on hospitals from flu, leaving resources for CoV if needed, and b) will reduce the number of people presenting with CoV-like symptoms and needing testing, again saving resources. Sounded quite sensible to me (though I'm not remotely an expert in any of this). I wonder if it's something the UK gov would ever consider promoting.

theres a youtube channel called serpentza, a south african who lives in China, and was talking about how people are bragging on social media about 'escaping' taking viral medicine and getting past the thermometers after diagnosis, one woman bragging about dining in France, going to Disneyland 😳...... we are doomed.

More chance of being killed by falling down the stairs , mass hysteria at its worst

I wouldn't necessarily call it mass hysteria. It's unlikely to spread here, but people ARE ill, after all. A quarantine of such massive proportions is going to have a big effect on China's economy and a knock on effect on the rest of the world.

I wouldn't call it mass hysteria; rather justifiable concern.
Or has the WHO got it wrong? Shame they didn't consult some of the experts on here before making their announcement just now.

Not really. Didn't get swine flu, mad cow disease or SARS...

Or even salmonella poisoning...

Think it's places where they have poor healthcare systems that need to be concerned.

I am worried, largely because I think the NHS is in a far worse state than it was during the swine flu outbreak. Also, my husband is an asthma sufferer and cold viruses tend to clobber him...

Just to put this in perspective, the current number of confirmed cases globally is 8231.

If this was seasonal flu ( or even swine flu), you would expect about 8 deaths.

The current number of deaths reported is 171.

The current number of survived/recovered is 143. There is a time lag of approx. 14 days on death from the pneumonia caused by this virus.

In the early stages of an outbreak it is difficult to predict how transmissible a brand new disease will be. However, the rate at which this coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak has grown shows it has pandemic potential

We have global vaccination programs for flu. New vaccines can be made relatively easily with minor changes and don’t have to go through human trials with each iteration. We have nothing for this. A vaccine which is mass produced and widely available is a year away.

This warrants concern. You may not personally catch this and if you do you probably won’t die. But it has the potential to affect global financial markets, supply chain, growth and to seriously impact the NHS. More widely it has terrible potential implications for those in poor countries.

I would say be aware, not scared, right now.

All deaths are in China. what are they saying about cases outside of China, just how severe are the cases? Any deaths? I’m starting to think that probably that region has poor healthcare or maybe they no longer can cope?.

There are no deaths outside China. But then there are only about 103 cases outside China. It is too early to compare death rates between countries.

There are some seriously ill patients outside of China.

This was pootling along at a couple of hundred reported cases from mid December until about 14 days ago in China.

Reported deaths now 212 with 9233 confirmed cases. Having worked in a&e during swine flu and catching it and being off work for 10 days. I dont think it is hysterical to be worried about the coronavirus. Bearing in mind that it is already normal flu season with RSV and UK hospitals are short staffed with bed closures. The flu vaccine wont help anyone with this and it is the worry about this new respiratory disease on already struggling systems in well resourced countries nevermind developing ones that is causing concerns over lost productivity and human resource.

Just to put this in perspective, the current number of confirmed cases globally is 8231

Yes with a R0 of between 2 to 5, so every infected person will infect up to 5 additional people.

Think it's places where they have poor healthcare systems that need to be concerned

That's why i am concerned....... NHS bed rate occupancy runs above the patient safety rate of 85% and is often far higher, we don't have the staff or the beds to manage even a mild outbreak of this new virus.... then again, its what we have voted for over the last few elections.