To think that it will be very difficult, if not impossible for a Labour majority again

[Rosehip10]

Even in this election the best result most labour supporters could hope for was a hung Parliament. I think it is going to be virtually impossible for labour to form a majority government again.

If you look at Labour's problems - Scotland is gone, I don't think there will ever be a time again when the vast majority of seats (or even a few) in Scotland are Labour.

Looking at the rest of the country, labour is essentially trying to appeal to two very different groups. The wants, needs and ideologies of seats like Putney, Canterbury or Cambridge (generally more middle class, wealthier, younger, higher qualifications held, more international outlook (i.e strong remain)) Vs places like Redcar, Wrexham and Workington - traditional "working class" ex-industrial seats, major economic challenges with a older, socially conservative, strong leave electorate.

I don't think any potential Labour leader can appeal to both those groups because it is probably impossible to. If you ramp up your appeal to the socially conservative group then you will bleed the middle class metropolitan and student centric seats. If this happened then a new party could rise or a party like the greens could become a major force.

Anyone got any views on this? If you are a labour voter or member what leader do you think may be able to overcome these difficulties? Is it even possible? Will the Labour party split?

I think that is a very fair comment that there are 2 core groups of labour supporters. What labour was offering this election would have certainly benefited both groups though. I think it was really the message/delivery/perception of Labour that failed. Ultimately a lot of this is down to who big media supports. And I doubt they would put their weight behind labour unless it goes very centrist though. So true Labour probably won't get back in but a middle ground Blairite type Labour may do.

I think it's an exaggeration to say Labour could never ever be in ever again, like in the history of ever....but the damage done by 'The Man-The Ego' will (and has) decimated their credibility for the next two generations I reckon.

So who can unite these two groups of current and former labour voters?

Any of the names being bandied about would only appeal to ONE of the groups.

poor Labour have failed under a moderate (Milliband) and now under a left-winger (Corbyn). I am looking with interest to see who they elect as leader, as that will show which way the wind blows. But, no, I can't see how they will get back into power in the near future.
Even though I'm tory, I don't like the situation, as I think government needs a good opposition.

I don't think we'll see anything but a Conservative government again for the very long term - not because of the nature of the Labour party but because of the planned redrawing of boundaries and reducing the number of constituencies, which will heavily favour the Conservatives.

But people get what they vote for.

I think Labour will move to the centre and will wipe the Tories out at the next election.

This was an election of extremes and we polarised based on what we could tolerate. Very few people who couldn't vote hard right tory will feel differently in 5 years. But by losing, Labour will change, move more centrally and win back a proportion of the voters lost. Statistically older voters are more likely to be Tory and younger voters more likely to be Labour - and more likely to be radicalised by this outcome. Time isn't in the Tory's favour.

Then with a huge majority they can take full blame / credit for brexit. A hard brexit will create economic turmoil. 4 years (allowing one for transition) isn't enough to recover. I doubt the North, which will suffer more as manufacturing moves abroad, will show loyalty to Boris for getting brexit done.

I think you’re right. I think it’ll need to be someone like Blair tbh.

People said the same thing prior to the Blair years

They don't need to appeal to harder left to win they need to present policies that pull voters from the right

Labour used to rely on the Scottish seats in the past, now those are pretty much SNP shoe in's it will be v v hard to see anything other than Tory or Tory+small party in the future.

If there is ever a case for electoral reform this is it, LibDems get 4x the vote of SNP yet get 1/4 the seats.

I’m not a Labour supporter (currently anyway) but I think they will be back in power at some point in the next couple of decades. They need to come back towards the centre, get a new leader and stop Momentum screwing things up for them!

Is their appetite for a "new Blair"?

Honestly I think labour are also suffering from a demographic effect.

As people age they accumulate assets and tend to get a) wealthier (in our economy at least) and b) socially conservative. Our population is overweighed towards people over 50, and we are having fewer and fewer children. In addition, some younger people do not vote, whereas older people almost always do. This amplifies the effect.

Younger people are far, far more likely to vote labour but we are simply outnumbered.

Keir Starmer is very much like Blair. So watch that space.

The loss of Scotland to the nationalists in 2015 was the killer for the Labour Party, it has always been their natural home and power base, they had 40 to 56 Scottish seats for all of the second half of the 20th century and those seats only moved to the SNP in 2015 after IndyRef. They can't win without Scotland, the best they can hope for is a supply and demand agreement with the Nationalists.

The middle class left-leaning voters in England went to the LD and Greens this time and those are both probably more natural homes for them (not withstanding the self-ID issue). As a Scot I don't think the English working class are left wing in the way you see in Scotland (even our Conservatives are on the left of that party). I now live in the NE of England and the attitudes I've heard from so called dye in the wool Labour voters have always sounded right wing to my ears so it does not surprise me that a Tory leader like Boris has appealed to them.

@NoIDontWatchLoveIsland I think Starmer will appeal to the seats in London and university cities that Labour continue to hold and do well in but will he appeal to voters in Redcar? Probably not.

In 1997 the Tories got 30% of the vote. They came back. The tensions between left and right in British society aren’t going anywhere, and Labour will be back.

Labour need to get rid of Momentum if they are ever going to win again. That will require a root and branch purge of the party and will not be easy.

Momentum have taken over the Labour brand and they will not easily let go. They know that the UK will never elect a hard left, Marxist party if that is what it says on the tin. But they think they can fool people by pretending to be the old Labour Party. Just listen to what Neil Kinnock —one of the most left wing Labour leaders we have ever had- on the matter.

But this is going to be a hard task as Comrade Corbyn and his supporters dig in for the next round. Anyone with a shred of decency would have gone by now.

@churchandstate Yes, but that low point for the Tories was about as low as they could go and I bet those seats that were tory in 1997 are still Tory now. the worrying issue for Labour is that this is not potentially their low point. Take out the brexit party and a small further swing towards the tories and a small decrease in Labour vote and another 40 seats could go blue.

The wants, needs and ideologies of seats like Putney, Canterbury or Cambridge (generally more middle class, wealthier, younger, higher qualifications held, more international outlook (i.e strong remain))

Canterbury was swung by the student vote. Canterbury is a small city with two universities and the rest of the constituency is largely rural/coastal, and not necessarily wealthy. It actually voted Leave, roughly in line with the national vote.

In 5 years time Brexit will be done and dusted. That returns us to the core topics of tax, spending, health and security.

Labour will need to be more "middle of the road" if they hope to win back some seats. That means being realistic with their spending plans rather than all the freebies. By all means, increase public spending and pay for it by increased taxes, but it needs to be believable/affordable.

Free broadband was just stupid - a complete waste of public money providing something that most people can easily afford. What they should have done was concentrate on getting fast BB to literally everyone at the same cost as people in cities - i.e. grants or incentives to get the BB firms to provide services in the rural/remote areas - that's all that was needed.

If Labour really want to win a majority, then they have to tackle Scotland. After all, it's Scottish Labour MPs that gave Blair the balance of power. England is predominantly conservative, so Labour need Scotland on board. Perhaps they need to promise an independence referendum themselves to pull the rug from under the SNP? They can't just offer more bribes to Scottish votes as Corbyn has just discovered the electorate aren't stupid enough to fall for bribes!

Rosehip10

But take out Brexit and the traditional Labour seats might well turn back red. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Yes, maybe it's time for reform. Turnout of 67% is sad and pathetic.

It hasn't been this bad for Labour since Michael Foot. But they DID bounce back eventually.

Difference now is that the SNP has eaten many Labour seats and people are becoming less loyal to Labour roots as time goes on. So the heartland is diminishing.

I think a Blair-type figure is what's needed. A breath of fresh air with a different approach; someone who asks people what they want and delivers. And listens to people.

I think a Blair-type figure is what's needed. A breath of fresh air with a different approach; someone who asks people what they want and delivers.

A snake-oil salesman? Haven’t we already got one of those?

@MarySidney

I think Canterbury is also hugely fortunate in having Rosie Duffield as their MP. Great constituency work.

In 1997 the Tories got 30% of the vote. They came back. The tensions between left and right in British society aren’t going anywhere, and Labour will be back.

But in 1997, Labour won 56 seats in Scotland. Unless they do something pretty spectacular, they won't get anywhere near that again (unless the SNP implodes), so Labour will always struggle to gain a big majority without the Scottish vote.