Are the conservatives really this popular?

[LabourHere]

Listening to statistician on BBC who reckons the conservatives are head in all polls and will win a majority on election day.

I know only two people voting conservative (mil and dm). Who are all the other conservative voters??

Are the conservatives really going to win the election so easily?

If so...I'm very very sad

ArseDarkly, obviously, I can’t speak for all those people. However, like many others, including me, they will be voting for their own least worst option. If Brexit is important to them, I doubt that they will vote for Labour. My prediction is that Labour will be punished quite harshly in the North and the Midlands. I believe that previously Labour voting areas will fall. Of course, I could be completely wrong.

Just to add that I find it interesting to think about how the thousands of recently registered new voters are going to vote. I would imagine most are younger voters and I’ve seen on here claims that the greatest proportion of those will vote Labour. But how can one know? Presumably, many will have been raised in the sort of families I’ve been talking about and will be Leave voters.

I have also wondered about all those thousands who didn’t vote in the referendum. Are they voting in this election? What about all those Londoners who didn’t vote in 2016? Are they likely to be well healed natural Remain voters, or people who felt left behind but that there was no point in voting as the result (remain) was a foregone conclusion?

I’m sure I could find some intellectual stimulation from all this if I wasn’t so worried about how deep the divisions have grown 😕

Entrophy there are lots of things that are statistically unlikely, but can you not see that that's not the point?

There are broad principles at stake.

Should a developed and wealthy country look after its poor and vulnerable or wait for them to die on the streets, or from lack of healthcare that is inaccessible to them, but not someone with more good fortune than them?

Do we punish a woman with children whose father has deserted his family or died because she may never be able to 'pay it back' and hence punish the children too?

Or do we employ a bit of common sense and recognise that high earners are always, always dependent on the labour of the poorly paid and start from a premise that a home, healthcare, education and support from the state when things are difficult should be basic tenets of a decent, civilised society?

I couldn't do a day of my work without umpteem shittily paid people sitting in factories making computers, building roads, harvesting food, etc etc etc.

And neither could any other 'high earner'.

Brain, it also depends where those new voters live. One of my student children will vote Green in a safe Labour seat. I doubt they will get enough Greens to unseat Labour but we shall see. I very much doubt thankfully that my safe Tory London borough seat (60% Tory) has enough young Labour voters to unseat the Conservative.

Entrophy there are lots of things that are statistically unlikely, but can you not see that that's not the point?

It might not be your point, but it is mine, and it's getting a bit tedious so I'll take one final stab.

Someone suggested that low-income voters support Labour not because of Corbyn's aim to 'democratically redistribute' into their pocket, but rather out of a sense of civic duty in that they might have been, or could easily become, net contributors who would be worse off under Corbyn.

This is tortured logic.

Someone on a lower income voting Labour is no less self-interested than someone on a higher income voting Tory, but somehow the narrative is stuck on how selfish Tory voters are.

There's no need for you to point out that people can and do move across income brackets, I agree with this, but the example (not mine, incidentally) of a single parent of two earning 16K moving into net contributor territory is a statistical outlier.

safe Tory London borough seat (60% Tory)

The highest Tory majority in London is Orpington with 38.5% @Xenia. Want to try again?

The highest Tory majority in London is Orpington with 38.5% @Xenia. Want to try again?

That’s the majority; to get that majority, the Conservative candidate had to get 62% support, which is wholly consistent with Xenia’s statement.

Entrophy Ah, I get it.

The possibility that someone might cast a vote for a party that was, on balance, less hellbent on punishing the poor, disabled, vulnerable, disenfranchised, marginalised and disadvantaged regardless of their own situation isn't part of your worldview.

Nor it would seem is the possibility that said single mother with two children on 16k currently faced with the real possibility of being homeless and/or unable to afford childcare might need to be a leetle bit more 'self-interested' than someone who has never and is likely never to be in that situation.

Or that said single mother, if properly supported, wouldn't be compelled to stay in that situation (or worse indefinitely), and nor would her children.

I suppose it all depends on how you define 'self-interest'. I would regard it as being interested in a fairer and more equal society for everyone, where having a home, being able to afford to feed your children, accessing healthcare when you need it is a possibility for all etc etc

Which is why I'm not a Tory, I guess.

I might have used the wrong phrase. Eg in Boris J's current Hillingdon seat the Tories got about 50% (and mine is higher) that is all I meant - a secure Tory seat in a London borough which is unlikely to change at this election.

.... Who are all the tory voters...

Well lots of swing voters and funnily enough, die hard labour voters.... Who said anything but corbyn, or anything BUT remain....

Who wants years more government infighting over brexit! Who??

Horse I don't see labour in action being kind. People suffer under labour too.

Who wants years more government infighting over brexit! Who??

No one.

But if you vote Tory that is precisely what will happen. The only way to end the infighting and indecision is to stay in.

Seriously?

Well if voters vote in Labour it’s more negotiations and another referendum

That’s precisely what many many voters do not want

Labour should have presented themselves as the Remain party from day one after the referendum- but those at the top didn’t want that - it’s too little too late

Not at all too late. Just in time actually, as more and more people have realised that 'Brexit' has become hopelessly stuck and that a 2nd ref with a decent leave option is a proper compromise position.

With Labour the issue could be resolved one way or the other by Summer next year.

With Tories it will just drag on and on becoming more bogged down, month after month, year after year. Even with a majority there will still be Tory mp's who refuse to risk destabilising Northern Ireland or accepting a sub-standard deal that constituents will turn on them for.

The call for another referendum is simply not as loud as it once was it was always poorly managed and really there are more than enough Remain MP’s in parliament to work together - you have to ask why they haven’t - it was never going to happen

Many voters are absolutely fed up with the on going talks of when we are leaving the EU

People know that there shall be ongoing negotiations they don’t want further referendums if they felt so strongly Labour would be way ahead in the polls

And they are not

Over and over again what are many saying - get on with it

Labour had the chance to become the Remain party they didn’t take that up. It was always a gamble for them and they dragged their feet

And having a leader that we all know voted leave and lied about it, not providing an alternative Brexit plan and sticking to it has not helped Labour at all in the Brexit debate

We all know the Tories are split but they have regrouped in time for the election- hardly a surprise

having a leader that we all know voted leave and lied about it

We do not know any such thing

Sure people are 'fed up' of Brexit if that's how you want to describe it but that doesn't mean they wouldn't want a 2nd ref if there was a decisive choice to be made that would properly end the mess

it was never going to happen

Actually I think it was always going to happen - it just needed a long series of chess moves to get in the right position for it to happen

We all know the Tories are split but they have regrouped in time for the election

They have regrouped for the election - afterwards, if they get in, the splits will still be there to make it impossible to get Brexit 'done'

If it was always going to happen why haven’t more Remain mp’s worked together on making it happen they have had over three years to do so. Now we are heading for a Tory majority it certainly won’t happen Boris Johnson has already shown how he will manage his party MP’s who won’t toe the line

Corbyn has never been an EU supporter and he doesn’t change his stance on his views don’t forget he called the A50 to be evoked the day after the referendum. I think he has absolutely had his arm twisted about Labour’s policy on a second referendum and that’s only after negotiations and has chosen to remain neutral in the next campaign to appease himself

Life is full of conservatives: people who are temperamentally conservative; people who want to protect their own interests, people who believe what The Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph tell them, huge swathes of traditional Labour voters in the North who believe they’ve been betrayed; rich people; people who don’t need the Brexit party any more because Boris will get Brexit done; people who think Boris has some sort of Charisma that will win over those obstinate EU officials; conspiracy theorists buoyed up by what they read on social media; people who’ve always voted Tory; people who believe that Corbyn is a loony who’ll bankrupt the country, retired and so on.

I’m more surprised to find out people aren’t Tory, but always pleased when I do.

We do not know any such thing

Corbyn has been an extreme Eurosceptic for his entire political career, as are all the far left, who see the EU as a capitalists’ club stifling their socialist dreams. He was elected for the first time in 1983 on a Labour manifesto promising immediate withdrawal from the EU (then EEC) without a referendum!

The election is going to be won on the promise to get on with Brexit

There will no doubt be a few rebellious Tory MP’s but most of those that rebelled supported BJ in the last vote

Thing is Dave there's a huge variety of people in your list there and maybe they could all come together under a different type of Tory government but this one would be too extreme - Bozo is just too obviously untrustworthy and self-interested for them all to be able to hold their noses and vote for him

I said why it hadn't happened Enthusiasm, it was nowhere near as simple as MP's getting together to do it