General Election Prediction Thread

[Bearbehind]

Apologies if this exists elsewhere but I looked and couldn’t see one

I thought it would be interesting to have a prediction thread

Based on what you think will happen, not necessarily what you’d like to happen

No chat, just to make it easier to read

There is no way that Lib Dems will get into bed with the Tories unless the tories agree to revoke or a second ref. Which they won't.

I agree with the first part. I think if Boris faced a choice between not being prime minister and agreeing to a second referendum, he'd choose the latter. He cares about power more than he cares about principles.

I don't think the Brexit party will get any seats (maybe one?) but I think they will eat enough of his vote that he may face a stark choice between the Lib Dems or a Corbyn government. (Or no government. The Lib Dems won't support Corbyn.)

I think this is what Swinson wants, and she wants to tell Corbyn she'll only ally with him if he lets her be Prime Minister. (She's been watching too much Borgen.) But I don't think Corbyn will agree and I think Boris will agree to a second referendum before he lets that happen.

One scenario which hasn't been mentioned on this thread but I think is a very real possibility is that no one manages to form a government at all.

Tories have a slight margin over Labour but with a substantial Liberal representation so they can block extreme measures.

cannycat20 your post is a typical labour response. Any good points you make, even backed quotes and statistics, are completely lost in the hyperbole, turning off a persuadable person who will just see another anti-tory rant.

Do you really think the conservatives will entirely disband the police, fire brigade, NHS? Lets have a sensible debate about whether or not you feel these services have been properly funded and managed by all means. But completely removing these services would be political suicide.

Probably the bloody Tories will win Dream for me would be 650 independents.

Just wondering about this - I don't love the Labour Party either, but I know voting for them will result in public spending where it is needed - how do you know? Last time, Labour didn't plan to do anything about welfare cuts and freezes, much of the austerity policies and so on. What makes you think they'll bother this time?

I'm not a Labour supporter but am astonished at the fact that JC has not willingly given way to a new leader if they want to win, as the amount of negative feeling toward him - right or wrong - is so high.

oh and cannycat20 your link clearly shows that the conservatives have drastically reduced the deficit. There still is a deficit but it is a fraction of what is was when they came to power. Yes, debt has increased, but that is because the deficit has not been eliminated and a surplus position not achieved.

Cheerful Muddler - very good point! Boris would do anything to hold onto power. But a second ref would be such a U-turn. He'd have to blame it on the coalition, surely?

One scenario which hasn't been mentioned on this thread but I think is a very real possibility is that no one manages to form a government at all. : what happens in this case? Does someone just offer to form a minority government?

Medium Tory Majority

Memorised Yes, absolutely. It would be all the fault of those evil LibDems who wouldn't let him have Brexit. Which the LibDems would love as they'd be the heroes who stopped evil Boris leaving the EU. (Though it could easily backfire on them if people voted against them like they did in the voting reform referendum.)

what happens in this case?
I don't know. We might just not have a government. Northern Ireland don't. I mean, I think in practise people would have to hold their nose and ally with political enemies, but it wouldn't be easy in such a partisan climate. And Swinson isn't exactly making friends for herself.