Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

General Election Prediction Thread

109 replies

Bearbehind · 03/11/2019 18:30

Apologies if this exists elsewhere but I looked and couldn’t see one

I thought it would be interesting to have a prediction thread

Based on what you think will happen, not necessarily what you’d like to happen

No chat, just to make it easier to read

OP posts:
Jaffacakebeast · 03/11/2019 21:09

Massive Tory win, brexit done. Hard! More cuts and austerity, lab in at next GE

Grumpyunleashed · 03/11/2019 21:15

A bunch of smug self serving gits will be elected and pig up the current mess even more.

TokyoSushi · 03/11/2019 21:23

Small Tory majority, SNP will sweep virtually all of Scotland and the calls for Independence will get even louder

Redshoeblueshoe · 03/11/2019 21:35

Grumpy has it Grin

EnthusiasmIsDisturbed · 03/11/2019 21:47

Venger if that wasn’t a calculated move by Boris to get stuck in the zip wire it certainly made him more likeable to many made him appear happy to laugh at himself someone who doesn’t take himself too seriously

He certainly has got problems pending but I can’t see any of those bothering people who are going to vote Tory because they want to get Brexit done. The man is like Teflon nothing sticks nothing

As for making gaffs which he does often and often sets them up he has a knack of getting himself out of them and a great or pr team around him - Gordon Brown is different as he is a principled politician.

I think we shall see a more serious Boris Johnson as we did in the referendum less of the lovable (to some) buffoon act he knows his strong points and that is when he has a platform to give a speech which he shall have plenty of opportunity to do so

Justanotherlurker · 03/11/2019 22:23

Gordon Brown is different as he is a principled politician.

Looks like you think principled means things you agree with.

It was under his watch as chancellor that Tax credits despite lots of opposition was introduced that let businesses off the hook of raising wages that is still felt today, masking fixing the NHS by ramping up PFI,, it was also him that decided to shit on the traditional labour constituents as calling out the woman as just bigoted, that's before we get into him overseeing bailing out the banks..

Tribal politics is a terrible thing, whats worse is white washing and holding up the opposition to some perceived higher standard than you do your own.

SilverySurfer · 03/11/2019 22:25

Tory majority.

Sewingbea · 03/11/2019 22:27

Tory majority. Sad

Puzzledandpissedoff · 03/11/2019 22:46

Modest Tory majority

Justapatchofgrass · 03/11/2019 22:49

Hung parliament. That is what government departments are expecting.

fartingrainbows · 03/11/2019 22:53

Tory majority ( the turkey is still voting for Christmas) shit Brexit deal, recession and hard times ahead then another GE where Labour are voted in and spend five years attempting to clear up the Tory mess.

Justanotherlurker · 03/11/2019 23:19

Tory majority ( the turkey is still voting for Christmas) shit Brexit deal, recession and hard times ahead then another GE where Labour are voted in and spend five years attempting to clear up the Tory mess.

And people wonder why champagne socialism is a meme.

The tories are trying to undo the previous labour gov of bailing out the banks, pfi, tax credits that let of business of raising wages and trying to balance the deficit to Eu regulations of ~3%.

EagleVisionSquirrelWork · 03/11/2019 23:36
  • Solid Labour majority
  • Humiliating defeat for Tories including total wipeout in Scotland
  • Increased seats for Libdems
  • Bristol West and possibly IoW to go Green in addition to their Brighton Pavilion seat
  • Key Independents (e.g. Dominic Grieve) to hold their seats
  • Brexit Party nowhere
SadAboutTheHouse · 03/11/2019 23:54

I think brexit party will do very well, as will labour.

I don't think conservative will do as well as people think (brexit party will take the leave vote)

Lib Dems will do awfully because of their terrible leader

Greens might do a little better than last time

Is there a prize for the most accurate forecast!? Halloween Wink

DisgraceToTheYChromosome · 04/11/2019 00:41

Hung parliament, increased Labour in England, destruction of the Lib Dems, destruction of English parties in Scotland. Possible Lab/SNP coalition, Brexit ref 2 (Remain), Indyref promised by McDonnell who now leads Labour, Scotland leaves union at next GE, Tories return, darkness falls.

cannycat20 · 04/11/2019 04:55

Sorry, this is long!

Overall - England - slim Tory majority, probably having to do a deal with the DUP/LibDems/Brexit party (yes, I know what they said. I also know they couldn't tell the truth if their granny's life depended on it). I don't think any of the other parties would form an unholy alliance with them. The Tories will do whatever they have to, however underhand, to achieve this majority. Expect more media manipulation (more coverage for the Tories, for instance, compared to other parties, although it does mean Farage has finally disappeared from the screen for a bit); more headlines about fracking, the NHS, and anything else they've suddenly become aware of; expect more shaking of the magic money tree for bribes to the DUP and the LibDems (who basically seem to be becoming a haven for ex-Tories).

The Shire, I mean the Midlands and East Anglia (with the possible exception of Birmingham) will remain staunchly blue, from the Welsh borders to the Wash. The West Country will stay a mix of mainly blue with dots of yellow and the occasional defiant flare of red (Bristol; possibly Plymouth; inner city Exeter - yes, there is such a thing - they have one of the most proactive and genuinely caring MPs I've ever encountered from any party) or possibly green.

The North West - mainly Labour, with flashes of blue round about Lancaster/Carlisle/the Scottish borders. The North East - mainly Labour with a flash here and there of yellow and green (possibly Hexham, since it calls itself a "transition town", though if I had to place a bet I'd say Tory still). North Yorkshire (especially Richmond, Harrogate) - Tory. York - hard to say, it's such a mix. Possibly yellow. South Yorkshire - mainly red with a flash here and there of yellow.

Scotland - SNP majority. If there are any Tories left this time round I'll be astonished. Any that are left will be pretty much all around Aberdeen and maybe one or two on the borders. (Being brought up in the north east, I have never understood the way Carlisle, Northumberland and the borders cling to their Tory candidates. I can only presume none of those voters ever take trips to inner city Newcastle, Sunderland, Hartlepool or Middlesbrough or even pay them any attention on the news.) Labour will pretty much be wiped out north of the border as well, I reckon.

Wales - probably Plaid Cymru. With flashes of red and/or green (Cardiff).

Northern Ireland (what IS going on with Northern Ireland? How can the DUP be propping up a Tory majority in the halls of Westminister and yet hardly ever be seen on their own side of the water except when it comes to voting on abortion? And where DID that £1bn actually GO?) - difficult to call. The DUP are to the right of the Tories and there are relatively few middle parties in the province. The approach to campaigning is also much more Americanised than it has been in England - come election time you can't move for photographs of candidates on every lamp-post...it'll be interesting to see how Sinn Fein behave. I've often thought it a great pity they didn't take up their seats in the House of Commons (yes, I know, it's all about that little sentence about "loyalty to the Queen and all") as, whatever you think of their position, I think they would have given the Tories a very eloquent run for their money.

So, much as I am hoping for a Labour win, or a Labour-SNP-Green-Plaid Cymru-Independents pact of some kind, I am resigning myself to the fact that England will almost certainly remain Tory for the foreseeable future. I don't realistically expect to see any other shade of government in my lifetime now (and I'm early 50s).

ScottishBlendTeaBags · 04/11/2019 09:11

For those who like prediction threads, here's one from last year with predictions for this year. Yes I am that sad person who bookmarked it to look at again later!
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3462965-2019-predictions?pg=1&order=

Dapplegrey · 04/11/2019 09:19

Look at the Olympics when he got stuck on the zip wire.

Do you honestly think he was to blame for that?

placemats · 04/11/2019 09:56

The UK is heading into unchartered waters. I think it will be a Remain Alliance with two leaders. Ironically, the polls will show that the Remain Alliance got 52% of the votes and the 'leave vote' 48%.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will be the deciding factor with Wales making a U Turn.

MesmorisedByTheLights · 04/11/2019 13:51

Overall - England - slim Tory majority, probably having to do a deal with the DUP/LibDems/Brexit party

There is no way on earth LD would do a deal with Tory party again, especially this incarnation of the Tory party. None.

TheHonestTruth100 · 04/11/2019 14:13

Hung parliament with more uncertainty and more difficulty getting things in parliament than before (basically a repeat of what happened at the last snap election but worse)

I think the libdems are going to do surprisingly well. I think the Brexit party are going to do surprisingly well. I think Tories will still have the most seats but seats being much more scattered.

Almost feel like Boris is doing this to make sure he's actually an elected leader? He went on and on when Gordon Brown took over Labour about how he was unelected. Now he's in the same position I don't think he's happy about it.

NameChangeNugget · 04/11/2019 14:20

Hung Parliament.

Lib Dem’s will do well though

tiggertogger · 04/11/2019 14:20

Labour parliament with the country crumbling from that day 😭

hiddenmnetter · 04/11/2019 14:31

Slim Tory majority, significant lib dem presence in the house. Tories will be up overall I think, with some losses to Lib Dems and Brexit, but will gain more against Labour. Labour decimated by Brexit and Lib Dems due to lack of clear policy on Brexit. 2nd referendum policy will hurt them I think.

noodlenosefraggle · 04/11/2019 14:39

Labour minority but largest party. Will form confidence and supply arrangement with lib and SNP on the basis of 2nd referendum or revoke, but they all despise each other, so will fall apart by June, another election.

Swipe left for the next trending thread