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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

General Election Prediction Thread

109 replies

Bearbehind · 03/11/2019 18:30

Apologies if this exists elsewhere but I looked and couldn’t see one

I thought it would be interesting to have a prediction thread

Based on what you think will happen, not necessarily what you’d like to happen

No chat, just to make it easier to read

OP posts:
Tanith · 04/11/2019 15:04

"It was under his watch as chancellor that Tax credits despite lots of opposition was introduced that let businesses off the hook of raising wages that is still felt today, masking fixing the NHS by ramping up PFI"

Ted Heath's Conservative government started this in the early 70s with Family Income Supplement. It's been around in various forms ever since as Family Allowance, Family Credit, Tax Credit etc.

slartibarti · 04/11/2019 15:09

Tories will get a working majority despite polls predicting hung parliament.
Tory voters tend to keep their voting intentions to themselves.

SadAboutTheHouse · 04/11/2019 17:57

So basically we are as split and undecided on the outcome of this as we were on the leave referendum!!

Dapplegrey · 04/11/2019 20:47

So basically we are as split and undecided on the outcome of this as we were on the leave referendum!!

Yes, and as polls can’t be trusted anymore (were they ever completely reliable?) this election is going to be very exciting.

cannycat20 · 05/11/2019 11:49

@ScottishBlendTeaBags Thanks for posting that link. It must be time for a 2020 one. At least some of my money is on Prince William and Kate announcing another baby on the way, and I'd stake quite a lot on veganism continuing to hit the headlines, as well as climate change. I have a strong suspicion censorship will also be increased and the powers that be will keep trying to tame the Internet.

Loving the comments from others about the Lib Dems never, ever, ever doing a deal with the Tories. I think you might be proved wrong. They'd do anything to get back into some sort of power, whoever they have to sell down the river. They have form for it now.

shalligoagain · 07/11/2019 07:35

How anyone can think of voting Tory with the huge increases in food bank use, homelessness, child poverty, all since Tory austerity? It absolutely astounds me. The comparably petty reasons people give for not voting labour, whilst such atrocities continue under Tory rule, it really is unbelievable. 120,000 deaths anyone? What is wrong with people?????

wherehavealltheflowersgone · 07/11/2019 07:40

Hung parliament

Labour do better than expected

Lib Dems gain a lot of seats

shalligoagain · 07/11/2019 07:59

Sorry, I forgot to post the link...

www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/health-and-social-care-spending-cuts-linked-to-120000-excess-deaths-in-england/

I'm hoping young people get out to vote, as age appears to be the biggest determinant of voting direction. Please encourage your 18+ offspring to register and then vote. They can literally save lives.

SweetSummerchild · 07/11/2019 08:05

How anyone can think of voting Tory with the huge increases in food bank use, homelessness, child poverty, all since Tory austerity? It absolutely astounds me. The comparably petty reasons people give for not voting labour, whilst such atrocities continue under Tory rule, it really is unbelievable. 120,000 deaths anyone? What is wrong with people?????

This is the type of comment which is responsible for the ‘shy tory’. Why would any conservative voter bother replying to you with the reasons behind their voting intentions when you are so absolutely certain about their moral deficiencies?

SusanneLinder · 07/11/2019 08:18

Hung parliament ( again). Maybe a slim Tory majority, however I think that Boris won't have enough to form a government, unless the Libdems get into bed with him again with a provision of a 2nd Brexit referendum. Boris will say no, and then may leave Corbyn to form a coalition with Libdems, SNP ( on proviso of Section 30), and or Plaid Cymru. DUP appear to have fell out with Tories so they won't be much help.
Think Libdems will do better, but Jo Swinson will lose her seat, so need a new leader.
Tories practically wiped out in Scotland. SNP will make gains and increase their seats.

goadyficker · 07/11/2019 08:34

After the news this morning- big Tory majority.

Timing is terrible

MesmorisedByTheLights · 07/11/2019 09:21

whats been on the news this morning? I've checked and can't see anything that would lead to people voting Tory.

anyway I think we're heading for a Tory majority, even if not a big one.

noblegiraffe · 07/11/2019 09:29

Watson stepping down? That was last night’s news though!

shalligoagain · 07/11/2019 09:36

@SweetSummerchild I don't want Tory voters to reply to me, my intention is only to remind them of what is really happening in the uk and hope their consciences do the rest. If 'shy Tories' aren't proud of who they're voting for, I urge them to change who they vote for.

I don't love the Labour Party either, but I know voting for them will result in public spending where it is needed.

midnightmisssuki · 07/11/2019 09:43

Large Tory win. Labour to lose seats and Brexit party to gain a small amount of seats.

mummymeister · 07/11/2019 09:50

Well said SweetSummerChild. I wont vote for the anti semitic Labour party. I wont vote for the mysogynist Jeremy Corbyn. Labour on TV this morning asked how many people would get home insulation in the first tranch and couldnt answer. They are a fiscally incompetent party who think "Power to the people" rhetoric and magic money trees are going to fool us all. Why have we had austerity? because Gordon cocked up the economy. Will I vote for a party that is going to cock it up again and with bells on? No I wont. Even the Deputy leader doesnt like the direction of travel and has had the decency to jump ship. And their brexit plan? all done in 6 months. Lie. It cant be. They are trying to cover all the bases. On the one hand they want to be the remain party so are telling their remain Labour supporters/Momentum that they will hold a second referendum (certain they will win but what happens if they dont and what will Jezza campaign for? oh thats right he wont say) on the other hand they want to keep all their working class life long Labour supporters - the sort that do the hard graft outside of the elite in the capital - but they voted to leave so they cant come outright and say this isnt what they want.

The Labour party is in a bloody mess. I really hope that they get wiped out by Libdems, Scotnats everyone at this election and it forces them to face down the Momentum bullies and we get a real Labour party back again.

CheerfulMuddler · 07/11/2019 09:51

Hung parliament. Tories biggest party, Labour second-biggest. I don't think the Brexit party will get any seats. Lib Dems will get more than they did last time, but not enough to run a government. Greens may get another seat, but if not will definitely keep Caroline Lucas. SNPs may lose a couple but will probably keep similar numbers. Change UK will lose most if not all of their seats.
I would LOVE it if Boris lost his seat, but I think he'll keep it with a smaller majority.
I think we'll start 2020 with more chaos as Boris and Corbyn scrabble around to try and form a government. I'm sure both parties have been talking to other parties about it. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDems turn out to have been lying about not forming a coalition government. Boris could probably persuade them to join the Tories if he promised them a second referendum. They won't join Labour. Corbyn might be able to get Greens and SNP and Plaid Cymru. I suspect enough people are standing as independents for someone - probably Boris - to get a government together, but it will be even more shaky than the 2017 government.
Corbyn will then resign.

BonnesVacances · 07/11/2019 09:52

I predict I'll wake up on Friday 13th, vow not to check the results so as to prolong the happy feeling for a bit longer. Then I'll inevitably see them and will want to look up flights to leave this sodding country. Then remember bloody Brexit means I no longer have a right to live in any EU country. And I'll spend the next 5 years rest of the day in a shit mood.

Quineothebroch · 07/11/2019 09:53

Labour given a kicking in its heartland
Lib dem gains
reduced Conservative vote
no SNP loses

CheerfulMuddler · 07/11/2019 11:32

Chances of a hung parliament just went up:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/lib-dems-plaid-cymru-and-greens-launch-pro-remain-electoral-pact

cannycat20 · 07/11/2019 18:04

(Warning - mini-novella ahead)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/pm-gives-cast-iron-pledge-to-refuse-second-scottish-independence-vote - way to go, BJ. Hopefully that means that the Tories will be wiped out north of the border once and for all. There aren't many enclaves left anyway, except Aberdeen and bits of the borders.

Anyone who thinks the Lib Dems are telling the truth about not doing a deal with the Tories might want to go and have a look at some body language training videos. Jo Swinson, like Clegg and Blair before her, will do ANYTHING to get into a position of power.

And anyone who seriously thinks the Tories haven't increased the deficit far more than Labour in the last 10 years (and yet we have less to show for it, which makes me wonder, where DID all that lovely lolly GO?) might like to have a look at fullfact.org/economy/labour-and-conservative-records-national-debt/ or www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/june2019#how-much-is-the-general-government-deficit

And as for the "decade of renewal" nonsense the True Blues have just announced, well, it wouldn't have been necessary if we hadn't had a decade of austerity. People saying things along the lines of, well, it's no wonder shy Tories don't say who they're going to vote for, I agree with the previous poster who said, well, if you're that ashamed of your choices, don't vote for them, then. If I went with my heart I'd vote Green but I don't think that approach stands a cat's chance in hell of getting the Tories out.

And I don't think Labour are perfect; I particularly wish they would come out in favour of remaining in the EU. They're just the best option for my beliefs, given that I don't agree with homelessness, poverty, the return of European diseases, and the ludicrous way corporations and the super-rich are able to get away with not paying as much tax as they should. Those earning over a certain amount may be paying more in actual cash terms than they were a decade ago, however, the point is that as a PERCENTAGE of their income they are paying less than the poorest. Don't believe me? www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/theeffectsoftaxesandbenefitsonhouseholdincome/financialyearending2018 lays it out pretty effectively. The rich pay 14.1% of their disposable income in taxes; the poorest pay 27.1% of their household disposable income.

If the Tories get in again, say goodbye to the NHS (not just reform, but wholesale Dissolution, and I'm using that word deliberately, given how mad our current political leaders seem to be - parallels with Henry VIII? No, of course not....); say goodbye to what's left of the state-funded education system, south of the England/Scotland border; and say goodbye to the uniformed forces. I could go on, but given my tendency to novella length posts, probably not a good idea!! Let's just say I'm praying for the best (and I'm mostly an atheist) but preparing for the worst.

OverUnderSidewaysDown · 07/11/2019 18:11

SNP gains in Scotland.
At UK level I think that unfortunately the Tories will return to power as part of an alliance with the Lib Dems (who are utterly untrustworthy).

Amanduh · 07/11/2019 18:16

Tory majority. Labour lose previous safe seats. Lib dem gain.

noodlenosefraggle · 07/11/2019 20:07

I wonder if the Lib Dems will gain in Scotland with people who don't want another Indy referendum. They are both remain parties.

MesmorisedByTheLights · 08/11/2019 07:31

There is no way that Lib Dems will get into bed with the Tories unless the tories agree to revoke or a second ref. Which they won't.

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