AIBU to think Keir Starmer as Leader could win the December election?

[saltandvinegararethebest]

Could he win it? He is very popular and a different character to Corbyn. I think he would appeal to a lot of the electorate who are left leaning but unkeen on JC.

I think so - Starmer has been consistently impressive on Brexit, doesn't have the tarnish that Corbyn has and I frankly think he's much more intelligent. I think a lot of what Corbyn falls down on is that tbh he's just not that bright- I mean, with the magic grandpa Islington socialist thing, one assumes he's 'intellectual', but really he's a dyed-in-the-wool lefty with a fairly narrow world view. That's why he won't step down because he wants to try to see his mission through, even at the cost of his own party's ability to get into government. But he's kind of a liability now, alas.

rent control, an actual wage for British workers, no Brexit, investment in British companies, a reduction in business tax for local companies

Rent and housing are massive issues at the moment. I think that is such an important issue to be addressed.
It looks like both main parties are looking at the minimum wage.

Exactly Echobelly.
Starmer would be better in every possible respect.
His rather diffident speaking style belies an impressive intellect. I've met him frequently and never found him condescending. Quite the reverse.

Agree but

A) unions and momentum (who call the shots and
B) the timing would suck - why not wait until after Brexit when Corbyn has been put out to grass

To be honest, I don’t think they want to waste Starmer on this mess of the Tories making. He’ll be a great leader, and great Prime Minister one day. But not yet.

He’s pretty much the second coming for Labour . Experience in a serious career outside parliament. Right background and education. He’s even called Keir.

But he’s new to parliament, and times are very perilous. I think the plan is Corbyn as caretaker leader, then another moderate leader, then Keir.

It’s about demographics and generational change- I think the electorate won’t be ready for a Labour government until there are more younger voters.

Bit like Foot, Kinnock, then John Smith (what a loss he was). Someone radical to engage the radical youth, then as those people age & grow more moderate and more young voters come through (and some baby boomers who prospered in the Thatcher years depart the electorate) someone more moderate in line with that will engage more voters, and then after that, Keir Starmer (who will engage even more moderate voters).

Labour Party always relies more on activists to do the work of campaigning more than the Tories- they have less money to spend on campaigning. The Blair years were out of the ordinary re donations- and as the party went more central and received more money, the activists drifted or ran away (the Iraq War was a huge driver of that). When Blair went, the money went too. And the rank and file activists who did a lot of the work were alienated. So the Corbyn phase has recruited new activists (not all Momentum), the party gets stronger, then there will be a Kinnock type who stands up to Momentum, some activists will stay, donations from outside the party will increase, lots of MPs who are newish now will know parliament and the workings of government and be suitable for cabinet/government posts in terms of experience and stature and the party will look fit for government again. They’ll narrowly lose an election and Starmer will take the reins. Then more donations, more activists, they’ll look fit to govern and they’ll get in.

Brexit might speed that up, if it all goes to hell in a hand basket and the Tories are totally discredited.

I wouldn’t be surprised if at the election, BoJo and Corbyn both end up with fewer seats than at present. At that point Corbyn stands down, Starmer is elected leader and either becomes leader of a coalition government or possibly a leading light in one lead by someone from another party- which could well go down the new referendum route. Another option is that he contests a new election because no stable coalition can be formed (either immediately or after a few years).

All thus takes time though. He is, I think, what the country needs, but it might be before he reaches full political strength, within and outwith the Labour Party. And a leader who doesn’t have full command of his party is in a perilous position. And a leader in a perilous position is ineffective. Which would be a waste of one of the best chances this country had of a decent Prime Minister governing effectively for a long, long time.

TL:DR

You don’t send the best soldier you’ve had in years on a suicide mission.

If we have to wait that long for Starmer he'll be 102 and the country will be a basket case after unopposed successive Tory governments.

No

It’s not Corbyn who is just the problem it’s their Brexit stance

With different policy on Brexit yes absolutely

Two to five years from now is the plan I reckon tobee. Might possibly be next year if the next election is a shambles.

Corbyn won 2 leadership elections by a landslide, and 41% of the vote at the last election.
He caused Labour membership to massively multiply, now it's at half a million, many times the size of the Tories.
He has always been ahead of his time in issues of war and peace.
His plan to stand up to Big Pharma is magical. I'm a doctor, imagine been able to trust the research we're provided with!
Medical research will be publicly funded.
We will manufacture generic medicines, saving the NHS millions.
He will stop arms sales to brutal child-killing regimes.
He is passionate about ending homelessness.
He will scrap tuition fees.
He will end austerity.
Unlike the Tories, their manifesto will be fully costed.
He will launch a green new deal, increasing the chances our children will have a habitable planet, and providing plentiful high-tec jobs.
He will start a national investment bank.
He will build social housing.
There will be a very good chance we will stay in the EU.
He will end indefinite detention of migrants in detention centres.
He wont blame migrants for the faults of bankers.
He will improve animal welfare.
He wont join a war cus america tells him to.
He wont kill kids for money.
There has never been a greater smear campaign launched against a major political figure, he has handled this with grace, fortitude and humility.
He has been a tireless anti-racist, anti-homophobic, and anti-racist campaigner, long before it was fashionable.
He has never been a career politician.
He has been consistent in his principles.

I'm confused at the above responses. What's not to like here?
I'm from Ireland, but live in Scotland. I'm impressed England has produced such a great potential prime minister. I'm unsure why he inspires such visceral disdain. Can anyone explain? Specifically which of the above policies/attributes do you find anger-provoking? Maybe we should sell weapons to Saudi Arabia, send engineers to maintain them, train their pilots in Wales's, advise them logistically, as they intentionally bomb school buses and hospitals, and incinerated children. The tories are more then happy to do this, and make money for BAE systems. I find it hard to understand how Yeman isn't a major election issue. How can anyone vote for a party who does these things?

@MangoSalsa

Whose plan? He would have to be elected leader by the members.

@LapidJewel Well put. I agree 100%. I despair at some responses on here. People say they don't believe everything they read in the papers then repeat the smears verbatim when asked why they don't like Corbyn.

General plan of some Labour grandees, some union leaders and him himself Sunshine93.

Just like Cameron as leader was the plan of Norman Tebbit, the person who sponsored/mentored DC’s rise through the Tory party. All the hug a hoody stuff was just sheep’s clothing.

These plans are never guaranteed but doesn’t mean they aren’t hatched in back rooms.

The only thing notable about the Blair/Brown plan (Blair as leader first, to stand down for Brown) as discussed in Granita, was that it was discussed in a public place not a private one.

Which means they (and their backers) must have wanted it to get out. Better to hatch that compromise/succession plan than have those respective sides slug it out and tear the party to pieces just as the Tories we’re losing the plot.

War councils exist even between opposing factions in the same party, when the times are right.

Thanks!
As an Irishman, I say, well done England for producing such a wise and compassion opposition leader. I sincerely hope he becomes prime minister, as it will significantly reduce suffering in the UK, and elsewhere.

Been saying this for ages-Keir for PM

I don't see why people keep trying to convince others to like Jeremy Corbyn. It's very clear - a lot of voters who would go Labour are turned off by JC and may vote for a different party as a result. Even if they agree with most of Labour's policies. They're not going to wake up tomorrow because of a well-made post on MN and decide actually JC is a good 'un after all.

OP YANBU and perhaps a loss in December will convince the Labour party that it needs to change its leadership if it wants a chance of forming a government anytime in the near future.

Starmer comes over to me as a clever speaker - it's clear he used to be a barrister. He also comes over as patronising and insincere so I would never vote for him.

Corbyn is unelectable. It’s that simple. He just doesn’t appeal to the broad Labour church. He’s a throwback to the 70s. I’d vote labour again under Starmer or Cooper, but Corbyn just isn’t prime minister material.

Yes @missyoumuch, you're right, many are turned off by JC.
But this is a very important election.
Shouldn't people question why they are turned off by him?

Hey @LellyMcKelly, but what constitutes prime minister material?
The core competencies of a public servant are compassion and integrity. Which prime minister bettered Corbyn in this regard?

Or, are media manipulation, and great public speaking now seen as prime minister material?

YABU.. His appearances on TV are faltering and he always has a look of being on the cusp of being caught out. Plus his constant undermining of Brexit hasn't gone unnoticed even with Remainers - he would struggle to come across to the middle ground as trustworthy and democratic.

He reminds me of David Milliband - Labour supporters think he is extremely popular and appealing to non-core Labour voters, whereas in reality I don't think that's the case

Ok here we go: rent control, an actual wage for British workers, no Brexit, investment in British companies, a reduction in business tax for local companies
Yep all of that! (Also ft working parent who can't afford to buy)
And it's not about the minimum wage as much as just wages in general.
I would just add public transport to that though, since it gets worse and costs more every day. Without a car and a shit load of money for taxis you are trapped basically.
Keith Stanmer for opposition candidate? Sure, fine. Anyone but Corbyn.

Can't stand Corbyn. Classic case of 'some animals are more equal than others'. Senior positions are full of mates children, and his own son. Why on earth would I vote for someone who has allowed anti-semitism to become acceptable>

Corbyn is completely bonkers. Went into London yesterday. Office at tube station was shut with a sign on saying officer was on other duties. He was actually reading a newspaper and looking at his phone. On the way back he was just on his phone again speaking to his mate.

The tube workers are very very well paid. My brother used to work for them until he retired. Bob Crow did a great job in getting large salaries for admin type roles. Should a office clerk be paid more than a nurse?

Our tube fares are shocking and the tube was massively overcrowded considering it wasnt rush hour. We are trying to use public transport as a family more yet all of these things make me think it actually is more cost effective to jump in the car especially if there are 4 of us.

Should a 16 year old be paid the same as someone with years of experience in retail re the minimum wage.

Corbyn would be on the picket line bankrupting this country with high wages for all and freebies funded of course by the wealthy. Only issue is that they will have gone so all he can do is bring the limits down and down and down and those tube drivers average salary £60k with every scrap of overtime claimed will now be funding his student loans, free care for everyone, free prescriptions etc

I think MangoSalsa has it. And as DPP, the buck stops with Starmer - he was responsible for creating, maintaining or changing the culture. The fish rots from the head and all that. And he was in place for long enough. I think he's toxic in Labour Leave constiencies for this reason, and they hold the power in this election. Plus, like all historical anti-imperialists, Corbyn has always been opposed to the Common Market/ECC/EU. I doubt enormously thar has changed - and that's probably what will resonate with those king-making constituencies in this election. Institutional antisemitism isn't likely to be much of a brake there.

I don't think Corbyn can win, but I'm not sure anyone can, especially if the Tories and Brexit Party split the Leave vote.

(I don't vote for any of the main parties, so I am interested, but only as an outsider with two ears and one mouth.)

The problem is that Labour as they stand will never win an election. Our government is decided on a small number of swing seats. To appeal to those voters then you need to move towards the centre and this is what the parliamentary Labour Party preciously grasped. JC alienated those that did advocate a more moderate approach and they ended up resigning. It’s okay saying 41% voted for him but that means nothing if it is in the wrong places and isn’t transferring into seats.