To let you know that panic buying starts next week.

[GladAllOver]

The government is starting an advertising campaign next week telling us all to "Get Ready!".

What else can it mean?

By the way, it's costing £100m.

Distributor, not supplier - same effect, different part of the chain.

Roses Most likely nothing will change

Things will change...but I agree with you that there's no point getting worked up and worried or depressed over it. That won't help anyone.

Having to "wait and see" is never fun but it's a bit silly to say nothing will change.

@ncsecretmh DS1 takes head meds, too. Neverstockpiled as they're reviewed every few months - currently monthly on one particular med.

Mine are mostly painkillers and antiinflammatories and I've used the summer to go light on what I have but order as normal, since winter hits me hard.

Definitely the spaghetti hoops, @Badcat666. You can properly fuck someone up with the edge of a well-aimed tin.

My husband once came across two angry women hoying tins of beans at each other in our local Tesco’s. This may be why I have a strong urge not to have to go grocery shopping in November.

RosesAndRaindrops - Is the British Medical Journal (quoted above) presenting 'a skewed version of reality'? Is Operation Yellowhammer presenting a serious analysis of the food situation or are the government's own advisors also Doooomsters? Is the government about to spend £100m of taxpayers money just to say 'everything is going to be OK' and if so, why is the campaign called 'Get Ready?'

The UK is almost totally reliant on an integrated supply chain with the EU for fresh and processed food and for ingredients for 'British' food. This food chain works Just In Time - there are not really any large warehouses full of food as supermarkets carry 3 days worth of fresh food and a maximum of 10 days worth of frozen, dry and canned food. Any disruption to this supply chain has an immediate effect - just as KFC found out when a small glitch meant that they had no chicken for a week, disruption at the ports will result in many foods becoming unavailable very rapidly.

In a different context, the German supermarket chain Edeka removed all imported goods from one of their shops one weekend to show how much is imported. The empty shelves would also occur in the UK, which is more reliant on imported goods than Germany. I don't share HennyPennyHorror's view that there will not be empty shelves. If a No Deal Brexit goes ahead on Thursday 31st October, without some form of rationing (e.g. limits on purchases) the shelves will be empty by the end of the weekend.

Havana but don't you think there will be some special arrangements regarding importing even in the light of no deal...something to allow immediate shipments? The bloody government can suspend Parliament...surely they can also make it allowable to bring goods in?

Look forward to seeing what people get in terms of "subs" when their shopping arrives on 1st November

It maybe they'll her nowt.

In all seriousness, its actually bloody terrifying

We always have a winter stockpile of food as we get snowed in almost every time it snows, this year we’ve doubled it and I’m now ready for the winter and for Brexit.
If there are no food shortages, we will eat all the food anyway so nothing will be wasted. It just seems sensible to me as I don’t trust this govt one bit.

RosesandRaindrops- read what *Havana^ posted.

MN can be remarkably prescient.

You read it here.

I have stockpiled a number of bottles of Scotch (malt) in case the Scots declare UDI and close the border!

I always stockpile for winter, too. In the NE. Didn't stockpile water until a burst wTer main, a couple of months ago. That was a stressful day!

HennyPennyHorror - yes, of course there will be some special arrangements, but nothing can match the free flow of goods that happens at present. Currently all trucks basically just drive off the ferries or the Channel Tunnel trains and go straight on to the UK roads on their way to the wholesalers and shops. Even a one-minute check on papers etc. will cumulatively cause massive delays. If every truck has to be marshalled in France to ensure that they are carrying 'priority' goods, then the loads and papers checked before they can embark, and the same has to happen when the truck arrives in England, a 15-minute check would mean the whole system breaking down in a matter of hours.

Another issue to consider is whether or not European hauliers will actually send their trucks to the UK. If there is the danger that trucks will be stuck for days on end both entering and leaving the UK, the companies will not accept these loads as they only make money when the wheels are turning. Even worse, if there is the threat of civil unrest, no trucker is going to risk a £200,000 rig just to deliver mushrooms to Tesco. They might even struggle to get insurance for their trucks and for the loads, so they cannot accept the job. Many EU truckers own their own trucks and are subcontractors to the larger operators, so its their own money that they are risking.

There was an interesting programme about the Mini factory which was repeated on BBC4 during the week. Their JIT operation works with a buffer stock of just 45 minutes - if a truck is delayed by just 45 minutes, production has to stop. Supermarkets work to a similar system - food has to be delivered within certain timeslots; e.g. is no good a week's supply of lettuce arriving at 8pm on a Saturday night when everyone has finished their weekend shop.

I have stockpiled a number of bottles of Scotch (malt) in case the Scots declare UDI and close the border!

That's a point. I don't drink Scotch but I like my wine.
Should I start stockpiling in case France says Au revoir, Italy says arriverderci?!
Might do anyway. Sounds a plan. If I manage to make it last long enough to get to Halloween that is

RosesAndRaindrops You're a bit of a silly little thing, aren't you?

RosesAndRaindrops You're a bit of a silly little thing, aren't you?

Lmao, well aren't you lovely?!
What, for thinking what's the point in panicking when nobody has a clue what is going to happen? Could be bad, could be good....
Or because I voted Remain?
Fk knows, maybe you think I'm silly anyway

The bloody government can suspend Parliament...surely they can also make it allowable to bring goods in?

Raab, when Brexit Secretary, didn't know that Dover was vital to the import and export of goods. No understanding of the significance at all.

Stephen Barclay, his successor, has only just today discovered that the car industry uses JIT, that 1,100 trucks a day cross the Channel to supply the car factories and has now stated that 'We need to start talks now on how we make sure this flow continues if we leave without a deal.' Presumably he has not yet got to the issue of JIT for food, fuel, medicines, ingredients, medical equipment, packaging, CO2 (for food processing) and so on. He clearly hasn't grasped that if only 2,000 - 3,000 trucks a day can get through instead of the usual 10,000 a day, then once he's prioritised food and medicines, nothing else is going to get through. No car parts means the factories close. No CO2 means frozen food cannot be produced. No medical equipment means no operations and so on.

I don't believe that anyone in the government has any real idea of the scale of the problems that they are about to face - and they seem determined to ignore the warnings coming from industry experts, hauliers and even their own departments.

"No deal" means thare AREN'T any "special arrangements"!

what's the point in panicking when nobody has a clue what is going to happen? Could be bad, could be good....

Is it panicking to have some extra supplies just in case, supplies that will be used anyway? Sounds sensible to me.

If no one has any clue what is going to happen, then surely being prepared is sensible, as apposed to panicking.

ncsecretmh - I didn't write that article - only posted it! I can't advise you unfortunately and suggest you speak to your GP.

My own opinion is that all of this showboating about no-deal is just posturing by Johnson and that we - and Parliament - are being groomed to accept a 'less bad' (than no deal) Brexit, ie. all the posturing about the worst case scenario is setting us up to accept something bad, but not that bad.

After we came down with a bug last year and then found ourselves unexpectedly without water supply shortly afternoon for a few days, I started keeping a better stocked house.
I’ve just carries on topping it up for Brexit.
It makes everything so much easier and although we haven’t gone mad, it’s handy to know we can avoid supermarkets for a good while if we really had to even if the meals weren’t all the best!
I don’t know what’s going to happen with Brexit but will be utterly amazed if we don’t have some form of shortage. Even bad snow causes the shelves to empty, so I can’t see how something this big won’t.

Carrying on from Havananana's post above, Priti Patel has said she intends freedom of movement to end on 31st October. Now, she's not the brightest, or most honest, button in the box, but let's hope she's going to make an exception for EU truckers. If Dutch/French/Polish llorry drivers aren't allowed in, or are subjected to checks, what happens then?

I feel sooooo manipulated by the press. Can barely read any newspaper.
The desperate shortage of HRT in the uk, and the supply of it being linked to ‘problems in China’ have yet to be replicated anywhere else in Europe.
You can buy the stuff in Spain and Portugal no problem.

Then we hear a week or so later just how damaging HRT is and how it (supposedly) contributes to a higher risk of cancer.

I smell a GIANT RAT.

However, I’m gently stockpiling a few things. Painkillers, loo rolls, rice and pasta. Having 2x hungry teen boys means we whack through food at an astonishing rate. But nothing we don’t eat regularly.

The skewed version of reality would be suggesting that the people who have been carefully adding to their food supplies at home over months are "panicking ". One tin or other food item at a time as budget allows. Giving careful thought so as to not mess up ordinary expenditure. Or that such people are all rich with cash to spare and huge houses and with a physical "pantry". That is nonsense.
Forgive anyone who has been sensible as described above and has had to put up with posters popping on to accuse them of whatever. Forgive them for taking a moment's pleasure in their good sense, budgeting and advanced planning while others do the actual panicking.
Next week's publicity stuff from the government should be interesting.

@ByeByeMissAmericanPie , I said exactly the same thing to DH last night about the HRT.
"Women, know your place" bullshit.

@RosesAndRaindrops try this site. I don't like her but I recommend her recipes. I actually tried the beef stew thing last night (I have the book) it was yummy.
cookingonabootstrap.com/