To want someone to explain 3 things about Brexit

[Bearbehind]

If I could understand these 3 things I might get my head round why we are persuing it:-

• What countries and products will we suddenly be able to trade that we couldn’t before?

• How will we be better off by losing frictionless access to the worlds largest trading bloc in return for gaining less than 1% of GDP we send to the EU?

• Even though we don’t want a border in NI and the EU don’t, we can’t avoid one under WTO rules so how is that going to be addressed?

And MN, please don’t move this to the Brexit corner

@MargaretHoulihan
UK exports to the EU dropped 10% between 2006 and 2016. If we remain in the EU what will that figure be in 2026?

Exports to the rest of the EU will be lower if we leave. Without the benefit of single market and regulatory alignment, how could it not be?

OK margaret, even though I asked first, I’ll respond then I’d hope you will do the same.

If I’m not wrong, the first figure is by volume but the actual value increased so I don’t see your point.

They are, and barring some miracle, will always will be our closest neighbour therefore it makes sense that we would always export to them in volume.

Plus we have a diminishing range of certainly goods but potentially services to offer so why we’d nobble ourselves is anyone’s guess.

On the second point - we had a veto. We very rarely had to do anything we didn’t want and could try and shape from within.

Now we are going to be beholden to their rules with no seat at the table.

So about the US, China and India..........

Margaret although it is a small percentage in volume, almost 50% in value of the UK’s exports to non EU countries are by air. This will increase if we are forced to trade with more non EU countries. It’s around a 1/3 in value for non EU imports. Again if we are trading further afield then this will increase, particularly for fresh produce. The cost of shipping will increase and there will be greater environmental impact if we are trading with countries further afield than our neighbours however you ship things.

I like this summary by an economist:
The big economic picture is that the EU accounts for just 15pc of global GDP, down from 40pc when we joined in the early Seventies. Hiding behind a tariff wall that discriminates against the 85pc of the world economy driving the vast bulk of future growth is crazy. Doing so when the eurozone faces collapse, is crazier still.

margaret you can’t take all the comments like that in isolation if you choose but please explain how we can get better deals with other countries.

Germany manages to trade perfectly well with China whilst in the EU - why can’t We?

And this is for the person who commented about how Brexit had done in the UK's automotive industry
www.economistsforfreetrade.com/Media/the-telegraph-despite-carmakers-troubles-the-economy-will-motor-on-just-fine/

"We should not be deceived into thinking that this particular key aspect of the industrial structure of the last fifty years is somehow vital to the fate of the next fifty years."

This chart is from FullFact.
I guess what strikes me is... the slow slow change.

breaching an international treaty just because it suits us. whatthe hell are you talking about

Now we are going to be beholden to their rules with no seat at the table.
not with no deal

So @greenlloon , how will we trade with our former EU after a no deal, on what basis? How long will no deal last before we need a trade deal? What do you think the rEU will want as part of a trade deal?

not with no deal

Yes, under any scenario. They are an economic behemoth on our doorstep. A large chunk of the world dances to the tune of the EU. Its regulations and standards are voluntarily accepted by business around the globe, whether trading with the EU through an FTA or just through MFN terms, partly because they are rational rules, but mainly because they want to sell to the huge and wealthy market which is the EU and compliance is a prerequisite.

Out of commercial self-interest British manufacturing and service industries will continue to obey EU standards on whatever terms we leave. Brexit is already damaging enough, to further disengage from our largest and closest market would be craziness upon craziness.

So @greenlloon , how will we trade with our former EU after a no deal, on what basis? How long will no deal last before we need a trade deal? What do you think the rEU will want as part of a trade deal?
we dont need a trade deal we are in the eu at the moment and are biggest trade parner is the us which has no trade deal its frankly surprising you didnt know this

A large chunk of the world dances to the tune of the EU. lol 78 percent of the world does not and will go down without us subsidizing them

The lost about the EU percentage of world trade falling is an erroneous one, but i can see why its used to make a simple point.

Put simply as world trade has grown the EU share of it has fallen as a percentage but grown in real terms.

Its like saying we used to have 40.percent of a pie weighing 100g but now we have 15 percent of one weighing 1kg, which is more?

Oh and i love how someone is linking yo the economists for free trade.

You know thats like 2 guys and that 95 percdnt of economists disagree with them.

"Will go down without us subsidising them" the UK net contribution to the EU is 5 percent of its budget.

I think they'll manage.

Oh and i love how someone is linking yo the economists for free trade.

You know thats like 2 guys and that 95 percdnt of economists disagree with them.

Rather inconveniently for the brexit cause Prof Patrick Minford, who is their leader, has said that brexit will largely destroy UK manufacturing and agriculture. (Their argument is essentially that the economic advantage will come from cheaper food and other essentials.)

Oh apparently he has gone back on thst saying that we csn subsidise our industries to do what we like ( as long as the WTO agree ofc).

Oh but the other thing All his predictions are based on the UK getting trade deal with the EU that is as good as membership.

Good luck with that.

Minford, the chief (in fact almost only) economic cheerleader for brexit addressing the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in 2012:

“It is perfectly true that if you remove protection of the sort that has been given particularly to the car industry and other manufacturing industries inside the protective wall, you will have a change in the situation facing that industry, and you are going to have to run it down.

"It will be in your interests to do it, just as in the same way we ran down the coal and steel industries.

“These things happen as evolution takes place in your economy. In the long run they are in your interest, but of course you have to deal with the compensation problems along the route.”

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/c115-iii/c11501.htm

Can we have someone come up with the "5/6 of thr worlds fastest economies are in Africa" point?

I just love the look on people's faces when you say, yes, but the fastest growing of them is Ethiopia, which a GDP about the same size as Manchester.

Combine the top 6 growing countries in Africa together and you get an economy about the size of Finland.

Africa's entire economy? About the size of France. We already have tariff free trade with the 30 odd poorest countries throigh the EU, and trade agreements with most of the rest, thw "tariffs hurt Africa " argument is bunkum too.

breaching an international treaty just because it suits us. - whatthe hell are you talking about

not with no deal

greenloon where do you get your information from because it is simply not based on reality

we dont need a trade deal we are in the eu at the moment and are biggest trade parner is the us which has no trade deal its frankly surprising you didnt know this

There’s simply no logic to Leavers arguments.

Because it suits today, the US is the EU’s biggest trading partner, yet we’re constantly being told we are leaving so we can trade with countries like the US.

So which is it?

I see maragret disappeared after her spurious posting of random quotes and didn’t actually respond to the questions posed.

When are people going to join the dots?

We will be royally shafted by any trade deal with the US or China or even India because we are in such a weak position - how is that ‘taking back control’?

CaptainBrickbeard
So, Leavers can’t answer the questions.

Leavers aren't the ones that are supposed to sort out what is going to happen, that would be the shit show of a government.

Leavers can’t justify the decision to leave.

Leavers have justified their reasons to leave many times (they are not one hive mind). Its just that their answers don't suit some remainers.

Its just that their answers don't suit some

No, the answers don’t suit the reality of the situation.