To wonder how people think a new Prime Minister is going to be able to deliver Brexit

[Bearbehind]

I’m no fan of Theresa May; the reason we are in the mess we currently are is because of her red lines and the fact she has never been honest about what was and was not achievable.

But what do people think a new PM can achieve?

No deal will seriously damage the country, even the government’s own impact assessments have concluded that and there’s simply not the numbers in parliament for no cal to happen (even though it’s the default position)

The EU aren’t suddenly going to remove the backstop for a new PM because we’ve proven we cannot be trusted to do what we say so it’s needed.

Boris will take us out with a no deal. The Irish will end up with the hard border they were so desperate to avoid, which frankly, serves them right for being so obstructive.

I don't understand why all these MPs are going for PM now. If it was a poison chalice in 2016, it is even worse now. Do they think this will be their last chance? Do they think they are the only ones to save the Tory party from the brink? How do their minds work?

It might be their last chance to be a Tory PM. I’m not sure that the Conservative Party can survive Brexit. (The Labour Party face a similar existential threat).

The Irish will end up with the hard border they were so desperate to avoid, which frankly, serves them right for being so obstructive.

edwin - why is this the fault of the Irish?

I’ve been asking myself the same question OP. Rhetoric is one thing but once they are in the hot seat where Europe has all the power, what exactly do they think they are going to be able to achieve?!

It will be no deal.

The EU won’t agree to discussions on a new deal (why should they?). If Boris becomes MP we’ll end up with the nightmare of a no deal.

No deal is damaging to the EU as much as the UK- the EU also knew that May would not go down that route. I genuinely believe that if we had a pm who the EU thought would truly go for no deal, we would have a deal on the table which suited everyone. Unfortunately we don’t have anyone with the balls to make a proper decision one way or the other so we have a stalemate and look ridiculous. Regardless of the way they voted, everyone I speak to just wants a decision to be implemented then we can deal with the fallout and move on.

There wont be no deal. There is no majority in Parliament for it. Parliament is Sovereign. If the new PM tries to take us out with no deal in the face of parliamentary opposition there would be a constitutional crisis, the Courts would get involved. The EU would probably refuse to do anything until that was resolved.

Even a GE doesn't solve it as the likely result is another hung parliament. Brexit should just be allowed to wither and die.

There is no such thing as a 'No Deal' Brexit.

Imagine if Johnson, or whoever, decides that the UK will leave on 31st October. What happens on 1st November?

• If there is no deal with the EU, all trade stops between the UK and the EU. £274bn of British exports have nowhere to go. 10,000 truck-loads of goods a day bound for the UK cannot enter the country, resulting in shortages of food, raw materials and components.

• The same applies to the UK's trade (and other) agreements with the rest of the world. All 750+ agreements are torn up - over £600bn of export trade comes to a halt until new agreements are negotiated.

In order for trade to continue, deals have to be agreed with the EU and with the rest of the world; deals which can take years to negotiate. The conversation will be something like this:

UK (GDP $3tn): 'We demand a great trade deal on our terms'
USA (GDP $20tn) 'Sorry - our terms or nothing'

UK (GDP $3tn): 'We demand a great trade deal on our terms'
China (GDP $14tn) 'Sorry - our terms or nothing'

UK (GDP $3tn): 'We demand a great trade deal on our terms'
EU (GDP $16tn) 'Sorry, you already tore up the best deal anyone could ever have - our terms or nothing'

And so on with Mercosur (GDP $5.4tn) , the Pan-Asian trade blocs, the African trade blocs etc.

'No Deal' would also require a border between UK and the EU - also on the island of Ireland. This would breach an international treaty (the GFA) which is guaranteed by the USA. The UK is in no position to pick a fight with the USA and the pro-Ireland lobby in Congress, particularly when the USA was supposed to be the great new market that would replace the EU market for UK goods.

@edwinbear - those bloody obstructive Irish. Imagine wanting the British Government to uphold the Good Friday Agreement which for good or ill has secured peace (or at least less war) in Northern Ireland since 1998.

The Irish will end up with the hard border they were so desperate to avoid, which frankly, serves them right for being so obstructive.

Fuck me.

Yes havananana, you sound so sensible but I'm assuming Boris has seized the crown 👑 and doing just what he likes. Our very own mini -Trump and just as predictable.

If I were PM the first thing I’d do is ask the EU for an extension of at least a year. Then I’d set up a cross party group with a completely blank sheet of paper. Thrash out a deal by consensus, get it through Parliament then take it back to the EU with a proper, experienced negotiating team

Why this did not happen in the first place is beyond me. Maybe ego got in the way.

there's going to be a general election, isn't there

no other way for anyone to square the circle

I'm assuming Boris has seized the crown and doing just what he likes. Our very own mini -Trump and just as predictable.

I'm not sure that the Conservatives will anoint Johnson - he is disliked and not trusted by many Conservative MPs, and it is they who decide who makes the final shortlist.

Also, Johnson might not want to be PM just yet. As usual he is just spouting nonsense in order to attract the headlines (and it takes the attention away from Farage for a few days) but he cannot deliver Brexit either. He wants someone else to take the blame for the catastrophe so that he can come charging in on his white unicorn to save the day after the damage has been done.

The Irish will end up with the hard border they were so desperate to avoid, which frankly, serves them right for being so obstructive.

This is singularly the worst take on Brexit I have come across on this site and IRL.

Jesus, Edwin. You vote with that brain?

'Making Sense of the Troubles' - still a great book though old now. Read it and as a byproduct, don't talk for a bit.

@AlsoHuman
"And I'd start by saying the default if all this fails is revoke."
That would be denying the democratic right of the majority who voted to leave. The will of the 17.4 million has to be fulfilled. I would therefore say the default is to leave with no deal.

It's the same with if a new vote is put the the country, if 'Revoke' is an option then there needs to be an option of 'no deal too.

Not sure op. I think next moves will be based on euro elections. If this brexit party victory is to be believed then it could be seen as another vote to leave. .. in which case any new incumbent could be spurred to just leave without a deal.

There was never going to be a good deal, as our negotiating stance was open for all to see, and there were no experienced negotiators.

I feel sorry for Theresa May as I don't think she's a bad person, but she didn't get a professional negotiating team in place - nor tell everyone else to 'shut up' with their demands, as they were making it impossible to negotiate!

She should have been truthful and told the country brexit was undeliverable. Parliament won't leave without a deal. Time to revoke.

She's had 3 cataclysmic years to end up in the same place Cameron went whistling in the wind! He knew. It's seen 2 PMs off, why would a third be different?

They're neither the will or the capacity - 7 weeks!

aja

Quite but no one in parliament actually wanted a deal, they didn't want to leave, so of course being obstructive , tying pm hands re what she can and can't do...is part of wider plan.

I think brexit pm will blast cobwebs away and just get on with it. .. euro zone is literally teetering on egde of massive recession.

I said the default would be revoke as it would concentrate the minds of idiots like Rees Mogg @Giggling.

You think the will of 17.4 million voters is sacrosanct, what about the other 30 million of the electorate who didn’t vote to leave?

The idea of both no-deal AND Boris as PM is absolutely terrifying

I'm hoping that Tory MPs realise this and pull out all the stops to prevent him getting down to the last 2. If he's on the final ballot, he will win, for sure.

I'm very concerned that there seem to be so many names coming forward from the headbanging wing of the PCP that the opposition to him will be split and he will win. I hope they get their act together so there's just one pro-Brexit candidate and BoJo and a remainer in the final ballot of MPs, and that BoJo loses.

The Labour party are good at organising this sort of thing, because they've had decades of having membership votes to decide policy and NEC membership at conference. The Tories, not so much. However, they're not stupid (well, most of them - Mark Francois and David Davis shouldn't be trusted to vote for the chairman of a local residents' association imo) and should be capable of working it out.

Sadly, I think the only MP who might be able to pull this off is Gove, and he's an unappealing prospect at the best of times.

{If I were PM the first thing I’d do is ask the EU for an extension of at least a year. Then I’d set up a cross party group with a completely blank sheet of paper. Thrash out a deal by consensus, get it through Parliament then take it back to the EU with a proper, experienced negotiating team

Why this did not happen in the first place is beyond me. Maybe ego got in the way.}

But the UK has already taken 2 1/2 years and has not yet decided whether to actually leave or not. So apart from not being convinced about leaving, there is no sign of what the UK would actually do to even start to solve the many massive problems in the UK, for which being hammered financially will only make a LOT more difficult.
With the sheer complexity of the relationship between the UK and EU, even treating it as a 10 year project is pushing things, and the UK hasn't even decided what it wants yet. It has a whole list of stuff it doesn't want but no plans for what it does.
As Havanananana points out, with the UK out of the EU it's time to get 'rogered' by almost everyone else in the world.
With a 'no deal' the issue of the necessary border on Ireland will be 'solved' by the EU and the USA TELLING the UK that the border will be in the sea. Westminster can kick and scream but that combination will make it happen. Although Trump and the EU may not see eye to eye, they are both against a physical border on Ireland and will use trade sanctions or whatever other means to 'insist'.

Who might be the best 'new' prime Minister, very difficult to say.
Boris to do a 'comedy turn' and revoke, quickly followed by a coalition government of some sort with (hopefully) some grown ups sorting out the actual problems. They will need to be people who LISTEN to the EU and the advice of other world leaders. Total 'sovereignty' and an idea that the UK is still a world superpower are just myths and the longer it takes to understand this the worse it will be for the UK.
The Netherlands was a major power back in history. It accepted it did not have the resources to keep fighting the British, French, Germans so concentrated on trade, which meant they had to speak other languages and 'get on' with others. This they have done very well.