To think we might not be going on holiday next April after all?

[Hoardernomore]

We stupidly booked a holiday to France for about a fortnight after Brexit. I didn’t even consider brexit at the time, I just considered ds’s Easter holidays. It’s to Disneyland Paris and we’ve been waiting to take the children for ages. We’ve only paid the deposit on the hotel (stopping in Disneyland hotel so expensive if we end up not being able to go) but have paid for the flights.

We are idiots.

Would we be best to cut our losses and not pay the balance on the hotel and book for another time?

This isn’t business. It’s politics and high diplomacy. You know, the stuff that can lead to war or keep the peace. Business ultimately has to operate in a political environment, which is why it spends so much time and money lobbying. Many voters in the USA made the mistake of confusing business with politics and so elected a (failed) businessman - failed in the sense his business only keeps afloat on a tide of corruption and dirty money - hence the USA’s internal politics and external diplomacy falling apart in so many ways.

Why do people keep going on about the Millenium bug? I don't get how that's even remotely compariable? Am I missing something?

{Maybe these published documents are tactical moves in our negotiations? I am sure eu will not want to stop British tourism for their economies sake.}
Sadly you are placing too much emphasis on tourism. If NO Brits went to Europe at all next year, there would be spaces in hotels etc but the EU tourist industry won't collapse. It may feel like a big deal to you but in the grand scheme of things it is almost insignificant.
In industry, the German equivalent of the CBI TOLD German manufacturers to assume the UK will be gone and not to rely on UK parts over a year ago. If the German boss of BMW talks to his financial advisors and comes to the conclusion that making the mini in the UK is not worthwhile, they will simply lock the doors and shut it down. Even that would hardly make a dent in the German economy.
If you look at the UK's GDP in the WTO tables, it is difficult to find entries for the UK, we are just a bit of the EU, about the same as France and just over half of Germany.The UK is not the great 'we are' and the quicker that people understand this the better.

Do you have anything to say planes will not be grounded?

Yes, that was what I was getting at. For those who tell us, it will be fine, don't worry. I want to see a legal document, not fine words. I didn't think we were especially talking about passports.

I am sure eu will not want to stop British tourism for their economies sake.

Oh dear, the "they need us more than we need them" argument that we heard about German car manufacturers in July 2016. More than two years on, with BMW bringing a maintenance shutdown forward, it is not looking very likely. I am quite sure the tourist industry will find new markets, although the part which caters to drunken Brits will probably suffer or have to change.

{ although the part which caters to drunken Brits will probably suffer or have to change}
They can have a lie in, rather than dealing with broken glass and puke.

I live in a small tourist town in the Algarve - yes we have a lot of British tourists, but we also have Dutch, German, Belgian, Scandinavian, Spanish, Portuguese - and increasing numbers of French visitors

When the financial crisis hit in 2008/9, we had fewer UK tourists, but other nationalities quickly filled the gaps and it was pretty much business as usual

I've just been listening to Any Answers and the last call was from a man frothing about 'why doesn't anyone ever talk about how the EU needs us as much as we need them?!?!?!!11!'

Because. It. Doesn't.

He was still talking as the presenter tried to wind the programme up

I've not got involved in any discussions about Brexit, nor did I vote, so I have sort of just watched the debates from the sidelines.

What I will say is - it REALLY is not difficult to see which side are the ones with actual intelligence and evidence behind them. Post after post of issues and potential problems containing quality sources, references and evidence of critical thinking.

But every now and then, 'duh- like that will happen' 'it's like the millennium bug' comments that are quite frankly embarrassing to read. No intelligent, fact based information in counter-response EVER. As a PP said, it's quite astonishing how much people can write compared to what they actually READ, but since when has anecdote, wishful thinking and downright ignorance from a vast proportion of society ever been considered progress, the way forward?

As a child, I used to laugh at my Mum for buying up bread etc when snow was forecast. I used to laugh at her thinking we'd get snowed in, and for a long time, I was right. But 35 years later - guess what - I got snowed in and me and the DC'S ran out of loads of food/ meds etc.

Maybe now, my DC's who are too young to remember this will laugh at me too when I get extra shopping in if snow is forecast. They may no doubt think it would never happen, doesn't mean to say it fucking well won't!

And if you do get extra bread and a few extra tins in, you can always eat the stuff up. If you book a holiday and your flights are cancelled - you might well be saying goodbye to your holiday.

I have put in my diary what dates I plan to go on holiday next April.
I know where I plan to go - southern Europe
I have the money put aside
But I will not book until I know that I will be able to travel.

Lets say then for arguments sake the EU closes the skies to UK planes and this will obviously be reciprocated. Many have quoted it will have no affect on anyone but the UK. So how would a plane from New york to Amsterdam operate which has a path over the uk? Or Dublin to Copenhagen. If either side takes this action it will cripple airlines on all sides and likely force many out of business in what is nowadays a high volume low margin industry. If were grounded by the EU so be it will just show it was the right decision to leave them but can parts of the EU take the economic shock that would result? Believe Ireland would be affected more than the UK if forecasts are to be believed
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/classified-report-shows-brexit-will-hit-ireland-worse-than-uk-1.3403601%3fmode=amp
Suppose they probably would in order to protect Germany and France.

The UK is such a large landmass that it would obviously cripple flights!
I do agree that Ireland will probably suffer most though. Ireland which doesn't want to leave the EU but is just collateral damage as far as the Leavers are concerned.

Lets say then for arguments sake the EU closes the skies to UK planes and this will obviously be reciprocated.

Its not about the EU doing anything at all.

The UK is currently (as an EU member) part of the Open Skies agreement that allows everybody's planes to take off and land.

Once the UK is no longer a member of the EU it will no longer be part of that agreement.

It can apply to join, but that cannot happen overnight.

It cannot apply before Brexit, because it is not a stand alone country.

If there is a proper deal union then membership will carry on for the transition time, during which it will be sorted.

If there is no deal (the walk away go for WTO version) then flights will not be able to move for a while.

Do you think we will know by January or shall we just cancel now?

If the ignorance and arrogance of the "it'll be fiiiiiiiinnnnnne" posters is reflective of the general population of the UK, I do worry about your future as a nation.

In Ireland, every day on the radio, I hear ads telling companies where to go to get information on how to prepare for brexit. There are funds put aside to help businesses that will be negatively affected by brexit. There is a huge amount of preparation going on here, as I presume there also is in other European countries.

Given that a huge percentage of our exports currently use the land bridge through Britain, we are very exposed so we are doing what every sensible country is doing and preparing. You know, just like happened with the millennium bug.........

Lets say then for arguments sake the EU closes the skies to UK planes and this will obviously be reciprocated

This is why important decisions shouldnt be taken by us lot!

We are leaving the agreements that our membership of the EU gives us, we won't reciprocate anything, it will happen through default.

If you like, its like using a Broker to do your insurances, stop using the broker and your insurances lapse .... unless you make new arrangements.....we have yet to do so.

Hopefully we will, in fact its vital we do so, for our economy and international rep going forward.... that people like Dominic Raab or May are saying we are prepared to leave with No- Deal, shows how little they really care for our (still) great nation.

@Hoardernomore - I wouldn't cancel until you have to. If you don't have to pay the balance until January, then cancelling now won't gain you anything.

{Lets say then for arguments sake the EU closes the skies to UK planes and this will obviously be reciprocated. }
Not correct. The sky is fine, no one is stealing that.
UK planes airports and crews will not have certifications to fly, so will be uninsurable. All EU planes and everything else continues as normal.
There could be an issue about whether EU and other worldwide flights can fly over UK airspace, I am not sure whether airspace goes up to the outer reaches of the galaxy, or whether there is a height limit, say 5 miles or so. If there were a restriction then flight paths would need to be modified so it doesn't cover the UK.
For the UK to attempt to prevent overflying would be rather churlish and on the basis this won't turn into an actual war, would be reinstated as soon as possible.

Ireland has commissioned a couple of massive container ships and is building facilities to load/unload them so bypassing the UK 'land bridge'.
The UK is making itself irrelevant.

I must say, this thread is giving quite an insight into how the sheer stupidity of Brexit came about in the first place. I fear there is a strong correlation between the thinking processes of Leave voters and those of people who seriously believe everything will be fine because the Millennium bug turned out OK, or because Disney won't like it if UK tourists don't turn up.

A lot of the Y2K bug posters are bots. That’s why they never acknowledge the countless patient posts explaining to them what actually happened with the Millennium Bug. They aren’t real people; it’s just a strategy to pepper social media with the idea that it was a big panic over nothing in an attempt to make that link in people’s minds so they think Brexit will blow over. I expect it will work on very stupid people!

Yes because we should strive to be like Ireland. I'd love to be a woman there. NOT.

Some of these posts have a distinct whiff of 'don't they know who we are?' about them. As if things will all magically fall into place and be sorted out for us just because we're British.

^
This.

While I am all for national pride, the arrogance of some with this attitude is astonishing. I suspect that this thinking was largely responsible for what got us into this mess, people truly believed the EU could not live without us buying Prosecco and BMWs and that they would come begging for a deal. I know some remainers,hoping for the best, also bought into this narrative.

In relation to NI, I have heard people say ‘why don’t Ireland just leave like us’ or ‘why are the paddies interfering, don’t we own them’.

What people need to realise is that Britain is no longer a mighty empire and the EU will not collapse without us. Ireland is no longer under the thumb of the UK and with the backing of EU they are right to stand firm against those who want to undo the GFA and risk going back to the dark days of violence.

Captain who is behind these bots - if that is what they are?
Do mumsnet Brexit threads have a wide enough audience to make it worthwhile?
The same group of people write most of the posts - they are mostly remainers with the occasional leaver chipping in - but I have no idea of how many people read these threads.
How many readers would be needed for bot organisers to think it worth doing?

Lets say then for arguments sake the EU closes the skies to UK planes and this will obviously be reciprocated.

Despite the name, Open Skies is not about flying over territory, as airspace is covered under a different agreement. Planes from the EU and US will still be able to fly over the UK airspace - although most Brexiters probably don't realise that many transatlantic flights to and from the EU take a northern route and fly over Denmark, Iceland and Greenland.

Open Skies is about who can fly where. The UK is leaving this agreement, so if there is no deal, UK planes will not be able to fly to or from anywhere else until a new agreement is put in place.

In addition, there are Agreements that cover certifications for aircraft, airlines, pilots and aircrew, ground crew and airports. If there is no deal, UK airlines, crew and airports will no longer be certified, and so cannot operate - and of course all aviation insurance policies are void as soon as the certifications become invalid.