AIBU to be worried about what the Director of the Food and Drink Federation said on the radio this morning?

[borntobequiet]

I get up early and like to listen to Farming Today on the radio (really interesting and informative about far more than just farming technicalities). This morning they interviewed Ian Wright, the director mentioned above. He was definite that leaving the EU without a deal would be devastating for both imports and exports. It would result in total logjams at ports, with just in time deliveries held up for considerable periods of time, and would impact very seriously on food availability in shops. This is all based on the government's own technical notices published recently. Here's a link to the programme (hope it works as they had an error message up earlier):
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj8q
And here is a link to the Food and Drink Federation's statement on their website:
www.fdf.org.uk/news.aspx?article=8062
What worries me most is that this doesn't seem to be properly reported on mainstream BBC programmes or in much of the print and broadcast media.

BigChocFrenzy can I offer an interesting article here
www.theguardian.com/technology/2000/apr/24/y2k.g2

I especially liked the quote from the professor of software engineering at UCL: "Being a prophet of doom is a low-risk occupation. If things go wrong, you are a prophet. If nothing happens, it's because you warned people"

Admittedly none of that was about Brexit, but some of the points may be worth bearing in mind ...

puzzled The millenium bug illustrated for me that a potential disaster can be avoided when there has been sufficient prep and resources devoted to it.

The problem with every aspect of Brexit is that this government has decided to stick its head in the sand, its arse in the air and do every form of displacement fantasy except actually do its job and plan

It seems that planning for what is now quite a likely event - no deal - is regarded as weak / treacherous,
Looking after the country and its people is what I (naively ?) thought govts would always try to do.

I gave an example upthread of what could be done to minimise the problem, to avoid serious shortages
I only hope the civil service have squirrelled away some emergency plans (a lot more detailled than mine)
so if the worst happens in early April and the govt screams in panic,
we don't have a delay while a taskforce starts scoping, then costing, then planning resources ...

The problem with every aspect of Brexit is that this government has decided to stick its head in the sand, its arse in the air and do every form of displacement fantasy except actually do its job and plan

Ah, now that I definitely agree with

But the capacity to take responsibility for something is the difference between politicians and statesmen. As someone much cleverer than me once said, the first think of the next election, the second of the next generation

Working in the telecoms industry over the Millenium I am 100% sure that the Y2K planning was absolutely necessary if people wanted their phones to continue to work: not just land lines but mobile phones too. And not just my company but liaising with all the other telecom carriers. Many, many meetings and lots if skilled work involved to ensure that no-one noticed any impact.

Telecoms was/is a good example of a risk area as so much of the technology is built on legacy systems.

Friends still working in the sector (both legal and regulatory) say that the Government is scarily ignorant of the EU issues and knock on impacts. Mobile roaming is the top of the iceberg. But my legal friend is getting to fly to London on a regular basis Even our TV and radio links involve telecoms. And then there's the internet.....

Iceburg ahead !

Good planning, with crew trained and organised
==> Iceberg spotted in time, then just steer around.
No problem.

Weak ignorant captain and chaotic incompetent crew
==>> Iceberg only noticed when there is a loud crash.
Massive problem

Good planning, with crew trained and organised
==> Iceberg spotted in time, then just steer around.
No problem.

==> Brexiteers: You see? There was no iceberg! It was a big con! Project Fear!

It shouldn't be a Leave vs Remain issue, to plan to minimise the effects of becoming a 3rd country

• and to try to avoid those forms of Brexit that result in this.

Regardless of one's views, the first step in effective planning is to scope the possible problems

Some longtime Leave campaigners like Dr Richard North (www.eureferendum.com) have been warning since at least Jan 2017 that, in particular, a no deal Brexit would be horrendous for the economy and the people,

with short term risks of shortages on supermarket shelves.

These are the automatic effects of becoming a 3rd country

The govt will need to invoke the Civil Contingencies Act and take draconian measures to minimise the short term effects,
then after Brexit negotiate a deal to minimise the longterm impacts

I hope that the new minister for Food Security will be organising effectively
and that he won't assume if the ports & roads are gridlocked, then food will be brought in on unicorns,
without the Uk having to source, train and pay the unicorns

How about the Beauxbatons pegasii and the Durmstrang ship from Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. We could use those.
Free movement and all that

www.bbc.co.uk/radio/play/b0bkpjrf
Farming Today again - Abi Kay, chief reporter of the Farmers Guardian, pointing out the the Minister for Food supply has a very wide brief as well as being a Govt Whip (animal welfare, forestry and climate change...WTF). From about 7 min in. She doesn't paint an encouraging picture.
Then an interview with Labour Shadow Minister who rather surprisingly sounds pretty good.

animal welfare, forestry and climate change...

That's the thing that not everyone gets about the EU. It doesn't have the wide remit people think it does. So the sphere where standards can be dropped ( also known as doing away with red tape) falls mostly within DEFRA. So environment, agriculture, animal welfare and food is where ministers will make changes.

The only other area is workers' rights.

Shortage of Epipens:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45667480
So - is a temporary shortage in any way linked to stockpiling in case of a No Deal? In which case I suppose people with allergies can be relieved that they will be OK for a while after March next year. Or is it one of those temporary hiccups in production/distribution similar to that affecting HRT gel supplies earlier this year? In which case someone should be looking very carefully at stocks to ensure there is no long term shortage after March.

"is a temporary shortage in any way linked to stockpiling in case of a No Deal?"

Very, very unlikely. Temporary shortages of a particular item are actually very common, and has been for decades. It's something that doesn't usually make the news, but might make a poster in your surgery/pharmacy saying when they expect new stocks.

I'm not surprised that people are seizing on this and assuming there must a 'pattern' with other, unrelated news stories about potential future supply chain issues icw Brexit. But this one will be just coincidence. No correlation, no causation.

The carbon footprint for long distance sea freighted produce such as new Zealand lamb, wine, Australian butter and cheese (Anchor brand i recall?) is relatively low compared to lorry miles produce. Brexit still sucks though!

I thought big benefit of Brexit was supposed to be no tariffs and "deregulation". So food will be cheap & plentiful but bad quality (?& selection).

For epipens, it's not a lorry journey it's a transatlantic flight.

Not everything is supplied from within EU at present.

Press release from Director General, IATA (International Air Transport Association), Sept 25th 2018
www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-09-25-01.aspx
Doesn’t make me feel very optimistic about anything that needs to be air freighted in to the UK.

I just hope that brexiteers like cabbage because that's pretty much the only fresh veg we consistently have from the UK, in March.

"Not everything is supplied from within EU at present."

Leaving the EPIPEN issue to one side - we have deals with countries outside the EU as a member of the EU. The bilateral deal is between the EU and the third country.
Once we leave the EU we have to make new deals with everyone. Everyone.

That is true, but you don't need a trade deal to trade. We can still get things. We don't have a trade deal with Japan for example, that is only just coming through now (with the EU). Hasn't stopped us buying their cars and electronic devices.

I am more worried about the transport issues than the trade agreements.