AIBU to be worried about what the Director of the Food and Drink Federation said on the radio this morning?

[borntobequiet]

I get up early and like to listen to Farming Today on the radio (really interesting and informative about far more than just farming technicalities). This morning they interviewed Ian Wright, the director mentioned above. He was definite that leaving the EU without a deal would be devastating for both imports and exports. It would result in total logjams at ports, with just in time deliveries held up for considerable periods of time, and would impact very seriously on food availability in shops. This is all based on the government's own technical notices published recently. Here's a link to the programme (hope it works as they had an error message up earlier):
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj8q
And here is a link to the Food and Drink Federation's statement on their website:
www.fdf.org.uk/news.aspx?article=8062
What worries me most is that this doesn't seem to be properly reported on mainstream BBC programmes or in much of the print and broadcast media.

I've given up looking for fairness and reason. It's all ideology and bad faith. There's no arguing with ideology.

@Geraldine170 - not seen one mention of blockades , ffs. However, plenty of mention of snarl ups at the border on either side

We have snarl ups at the border now. Have you missed all that Operation Stack and the M20, huge tailbacks in Calais business.

Honestly, I think some of you are being more than a little bit disingenuous. When it suits your purpose you’re scaring people by menacing them with the spectre of food shortages and starvation. However when people actually point out what the EU would have to do for us to get into that position you’re all ‘Oh, no, no, no, the lovely EU would never do that’.

Both things can’t be true. If it was to get to the point where we didn’t have enough food to go around and couldn’t source drugs that would be because the EU had created a trade blockade not allowing food and drugs to be imported to us from the EU and not allowing it to travel through the EU to reach us. We’re surrounded by European countries and the onlyway this could happen is if the EU deliberately made it difficult for the things we want to reach us.

How else do you propose it would happen?

Incidentally this man represents an industry whose owners make a huge amount of money off the back of EU workers who are paid terrible wages and have poor working conditions.

Can you think of any reason why he may not be an entirely impartial or reliable source of information?

@Geraldine170 ? Hi. Just so you know, Remain voters aren't Labour supporters. Just thought I'd let you know before you fix it in your head.
I think JC and JM are unconscionable twats too.

The EU isn't doing this to us, But, I suppose that if your world view is that the EU is responsible for everything then you aren't really up for listening to anything else.

I wouldn't piss on Corbyn if he was on fire.

Can you think of any reason why he may not be an entirely impartial or reliable source of information?

Um 🤔, he's a RemoanerEiteUndemocraticCItizenOfNorwhereEnemyOfThePeople?

Cutting through the hysterical language on here, I don't think anyone wants or expects that the doomsday scenarios will occur, but in the absence of anything at all from the government other than some very poor papers (which give far less detail than the EU papers published 6 months ago did) then no wonder people are worried and are beginning to forcefully state their concerns.

The various trade organisations are pointing out how badly it could go if the government gets Brexit wrong, and are raising concerns that there seems to be insufficient planning, insufficient time and insufficient consultation with the affected parties. Mrs May cackling away about 'Chequers or No Deal' is having no effect on the EU, who have politely (and finally impolitely) told her that Chequers is dead. 'Chequers or No Deal' is at risk of destroying thousands of businesses and the jobs that these provide, as well as risking food and medicine shortages. Even the hard Brexiters admit this - some actively embrace the prospect.

What blockade is this? Oh, it's our own lorries clogging up the M20

I suspect you might be missing the point there.

Queues on the M20 are only an issue for exports. They'll be caused by delays disembarking vehicles in France because of any problems at French Customs, and knocking on to embarking vehicles at Dover.

Our supply problems will be caused by queues at Calais for the inbound boast.

no government that values its comfy seats in parliament is going to see its citizens starving on the streets.

Did you actually hear or read Sajid Javid's response to police worries about possible food riots after Brexit? His plan to deal with those is to put armed troops on the street, not make advance plans for people to actually be fed. The Tories would rather shoot hungry people than feed them, that's what his plans amount to.

You don't believe it? He said it: 'armed troops on the streets'.

Have you closed your eyes and ears to reports every winter of hungry, homeless people freezing to death on the streets; regular reports of disabled people deprived of their benefits starving to death?

Part of the problems we face is due to people just not believing what politicians say, and don't challenge them, letting them get away with it. That kind of attitude is why we have the government we have, why we're in the mess we're in.

I suspect that the Leavers on this thread will, mysteriously, not label language like "virtual holocaust," "blockade," "crime against humanity" and "most evil regime in history" as "hysterical/hyperbolic" scaremongering. Because they are all from a pro-Brexit post, which itself unironically refers to the OP and other Remainers as ludicrous.

elements, you might have noticed that I used those terms to illustrate how ludicrous the idea would allow that to happen was. I didn’t say it was the EU now, I said that it would be the EU if they did allow famine and death to hit the U.K.

I was pointing out the ludicrous nature of the scaremongering going on here and pointing out it would be almost impossible for the doomsday to happen.

You’ve carefully edited those quotes to make it seem like I was calling the EU some of those things when I was actually pointing out how ridiculous the idea they would do these things is.

And yes, if we get to the point where we run out of food and drugs we would be in a blockaded situation. You can’t say ‘oh we can’t get food and drugs but we’re not actually blockaded because we are still getting deliveries of Ikea coffee table.

I can’t believe how daft some of you sound. A situation where neighbouring countries stop another country from importing essentials is a blockade. You’re pretending it’s something else because you don’t like it pointed out to you that the situation you’re describing is a blockade.

And yes, if a country used trade rules to stop essentials arriving in another country leading to serious food shortages it would be a crime against humanity. The Irish famine is an exact example of that and was a crime against humanity.

The whole idea we’re all going to be starved and dying in our beds is just laughable.

I suppose people can disregard warnings from the Head of the food and drink federation alleging him of having some other agenda (although it seems unlikely).

It's seems quite genuine that he tried to highlight concerns to politicians on numerous occasions, and when that fell on mostly deaf ears, he is now speaking out to warn the public. As I said he'd be negligent not to voice concerns based on his practical knowledge of the industry.

However if he is dismissed as having an agenda, how come the govts own technical notices give similar warnings?

Our supply problems will be caused by queues at Calais for the inbound boast

The delays to inbound lorries will be caused by queues at Calais and delays at Dover.

Trucks leaving the EU would need to have their documents checked and stamped on leaving France, and would then have to have them checked and stamped (and goods inspected ) again on entering the UK. Currently these vehicles arrive and drive.

There is nowhere at Dover or at the UK end of the Channel Tunnel for these inspections to take place, so unloading of the ferries and trains takes longer, reducing their capacity. (The ferries are likewise delayed when UK trucks leave the UK and again when they enter the EU in France or Holland).

There are other problems. Hauliers only make money when the wheels on the trucks are turning. If their trucks and drivers are parked up for hours or even days on end, either freight rates will need to be increased, or the hauliers will no longer serve the routes - they'll lose money and ultimately go bust. They will also find it difficult to recruit drivers, who will be well aware of the issues at the border in places like Turkey and even Norway.

Did you actually hear or read Sajid Javid's response to police worries about possible food riots after Brexit? His plan to deal with those is to put armed troops on the street, not make advance plans for people to actually be fed. The Tories would rather shoot hungry people than feed them, that's what his plans amount to.*

Actually what he said was that he couldn’t completely rule out social unrest and the army was one option in the case that did happen.

But he also said the Brexit doomsday scenarios wouldn’t happen.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-sajid-javid-doomsday-scenario-wont-come-to-pass/amp/

Incidentally this man represents an industry whose owners make a huge amount of money off the back of EU workers who are paid terrible wages and have poor working conditions.
What man?

Being tangled in a colossal fuck-up of our own making due to our own hubris and ignorance is not "being blockaded". Calling it "being blockaded" is the sort of language that, if used by a Remainer, would be instantly derided as hysterical.

Part of the problems we face is due to people just not believing what politicians say

Well, yeah. You have to work it out for yourself.

We had to accept their rubbish previously but now we can work it out for ourselves.

Or 48% of us can anyway...

Also I don't think anyone is saying there won't be food after the no deal outcome , just much more expensive produce and less choice.

The head of the federation simply warned of an unavoidable severe impact on UK food and drink supplies and trade from March 2019 including :

•chaos at the ports (which the gov agree with)
•serious disruption to food supplies ( which the technical notices seem to predict too)
•rising consumer prices
•devastation for UK exports with tariffs making many products uncompetitive threatening more than £13bn of annual exports ( and presumably knock on effect on food jobs).

That's all.

borntobequiet 'What Man'

I'm guessing the spokesman fort he food and drink industry association. or whatever it was.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bkpjkl
I'll repost this for the fun of listening to "lorries won't be able to disgorge and ferries will go back with lorries still on them", about 09:30 min.

Because we will be a third country. Basically blockading ourselves.

@Geraldine170

I can’t believe how daft some of you sound. A situation where neighbouring countries stop another country from importing essentials is a blockade. You’re pretending it’s something else because you don’t like it pointed out to you that the situation you’re describing is a blockade.

It is nothing to do with the EU. The UK, as May keeps telling everyone, is leaving the EU on 29th March. After that, the consequences are entirely down to the decisions made by the UK government and 'the will of the people.'

There is no blockade. It is the UK that is building the customs and regulations wall around the country - not the EU. The issues are about capacity and logistics. There are not enough UK customs officers to check every lorry, and nowhere for them to be checked, so unless you propose allowing every truck to arrive unchecked, there will be inevitably be delays.

The only people rubbing their hands at the prospect of no checks are the criminals and the vulture capitalists. Sometimes it is difficult to separate the two.

Have any of you thought how you would feel if this was another country?

If you saw on TV that people had run out of food and drugs and had nothing to eat and were dying in hospitals but there was food and drugs sitting on trucks at the border but their neighbouring countries were refusing to allow it through or holding it up because ‘rules are rules’?

Do you think you’d turn round and say to your DH ‘Oh well, let them starve, they’ve brought it on themselves’ or do you think you’d be saying how dreadful it was and that they should let the food and drugs in? Anybody with a scrap of humanity would say the latter.

Honestly, the very idea this would happen is beyond ludicrous. It would destroy the EU.

I can anticipate what might happen in a worst case scenario and I don't think anybody needs to drop dead because of 'food shortages'. I can see a problem with food prices though. That's probably an issue for people with lower incomes.

So @Geraldine170 , you think we should rely on the kindness of strangers. I thought we were taking back control?

Yep, @FishesaPlenty . Food prices going up. And more people relying on food banks.
But if posters like @Geraldine170 think that is being a harbinger of Armageddon, let them have their fun.

Am I worried about our food chain? No. Am I worried about Monkeypox? Yes.

If you saw on TV that people had run out of food and drugs and had nothing to eat and were dying in hospitals but there was food and drugs sitting on trucks at the border but their neighbouring countries were refusing to allow it through or holding it up because ‘rules are rules’?

@Geraldine170

The EU is not refusing to allow the food through or holding it up - the bottleneck is on the UK side, caused entirely by UK government decisions.

Food, medicines and goods cannot travel on non-existent ferries. When the boats are full, that's it. If the capacity goes down from 30 ferries a day (or whatever) to half that number because of the delays, then only half of the previous amount of freight gets through.

If the government decides to prioritise food and medicines, then the factories run out of parts. If they prioritise parts, then the shops suffer food shortages.