AIBU to be worried about what the Director of the Food and Drink Federation said on the radio this morning?

[borntobequiet]

I get up early and like to listen to Farming Today on the radio (really interesting and informative about far more than just farming technicalities). This morning they interviewed Ian Wright, the director mentioned above. He was definite that leaving the EU without a deal would be devastating for both imports and exports. It would result in total logjams at ports, with just in time deliveries held up for considerable periods of time, and would impact very seriously on food availability in shops. This is all based on the government's own technical notices published recently. Here's a link to the programme (hope it works as they had an error message up earlier):
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj8q
And here is a link to the Food and Drink Federation's statement on their website:
www.fdf.org.uk/news.aspx?article=8062
What worries me most is that this doesn't seem to be properly reported on mainstream BBC programmes or in much of the print and broadcast media.

It will sort itself out but in the early days is potentially problematic

This ^^

One thing I'm sure of, though, is that Brexit will be used as an excuse for an awful lot of incompetence. Forgot to send an order in time? Lost your supplier because you didn't pay? Failed to read the new regs?

Not to worry ... there's always Brexit to take the blame, just as "it's the EU rules innit?" is used even for things that genuinely aren't the EU's fault (the same as happened with decimalisation, except each year there are fewer who remember that)

10 minutes delay anywhere can only possibly mean a one hour delay if it's unexpected and means the load doesn't meet a necessary connection with someone waiting for it.

Your own highlighting the word 'unexpected' there should be your clue. The whole thing is going to be unexpected, because no one knows what's going to happen! The only way we will avoid absolute chaos is if industries apply some critical systemic thinking to this now and not this kind of simplistic top down approach.

Maybe spokespersons for trade organisations have an interest in grabbing the attention of the media/ government? Sadly we live in a political and business world of PR hyperbole. All the more reason to listen to the calmer voices and THINK for ourselves.

(To have a sideways rant here Alistair Campbell and his "sexed up" dossier style have a lot to answer for. Far more imo than a crappy bus advert with no authority behind it whatsoever.)

Why would lorries not be able to get fuel

Because it is imported. The sort of oil we produce from the North Sea isn't the sort you use in cars and lorries. But I have to say I am sceptical that tankers would be prevented from docking!

Well it has to be refined but I can promise you that oil from the North Sea, refined at Grangemouth and elsewhere, is fueling cars and lorries throughout the UK today. It's also piped all round the UK.

But whether it's imported or not is irrelevant anyway. It's not subject to queues at ports, which is the big concern. We're not going to be suddenly unable to import it. there won't be any extra tariffs imposed when we import it. It will be exactly the same procedure as happens today.

Decimalisation was used as an excuse to hike prices across the board so I am told.

Sadly we live in a political and business world of PR hyperbole. All the more reason to listen to the calmer voices and THINK for ourselves

Indeed

I'm reminded of the much-touted, dreaded "millennium bug", when we were told that aircraft would drop out of the sky, the lights would go out, nobody would get their operations and much, much more

An IT guy I knew got £2000 out of his employer for staying at work overnight back then, after convincing them it was the only way to protect the business from armageddon ... not so very different to the self interested carry on we're seeing now

Big refinery in Hampshire too..

Decimalisation was used as an excuse to hike prices across the board so I am told

You're told right; there were some appalling scams on the back of it, just as there'll no doubt be this time

Nice to see our friend the Millennium Bug rearing its ugly head again!
Here's a balanced account that makes the point that it wasn't a problem because many people worked very hard to ensure it wouldn't be:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45083650
And guess what? Here's Bernard Jenkin in the article, just as wrong about the MB as he is about Brexit:
That is certainly the view of Sir Bernard Jenkin MP who has compared what he believes are exaggerated fears about a no-deal Brexit to the bug.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Monday: "We will look back and wonder what all the fuss was about - a bit like the millennium bug, remember all the experts on the millennium bug?"

Maybe spokespersons for trade organisations have an interest in grabbing the attention of the media/ government? Sadly we live in a political and business world of PR hyperbole. All the more reason to listen to the calmer voices and THINK for ourselves.

Maybe the RHA and Food and Drinks people, and the motor manufacturers, and the farmers have been coming up against a brick wall when attempting to engage the government and need to shout loudly. Time after time businesses and business organisations report that they cannot get to speak to ministers, and when they finally do they are stonewalled or met with ignorance.

Government advice that exporters should find other means of transport is patently nonsense. If there are delays and problems with air, road, rail and shipping (all highlighted in the government papers) what means of transport are there left as alternatives?

Or a minister who did not know that UK commercial driving licenses would no longer be valid in the EU,, nor that 40,000 truckers would be applying for EU permits, of which fewer than 1,000 are available.

Who are these calmer voices? Johnson, whose every utterance about Brexit has proved to be wrong. Davis likewise. May, who grates like a scratched record, repeating the same discredited nonsense? Rees-Mogg and Redwood, who have advised their clients to get their money out of the UK?

Regardless of whether one thinks that Brexit is a good or bad thing, the lack of preparation and the lack of knowledge amongst those promoting it must be cause for concern. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is right and we'll all be millionaires in 50 years time. But what are we going to eat next April?

@Havanananana an excellent explanation of the situation. Thank you.

I actually think that % of EU staff in food production in the UK is higher than 50%, certainly in the actual workforce.

As someone who works in the food industry I found it so frustrating that the industry wasn't speaking out more before the reddendum on the potential impact . I understand they don't want the negative publicity, but the public are very naïve about where our food comes from and the realities of the industry.

Well at least we got to Page 4 before the millennium bug crawled out from under the mouse mat

I was writng more of the likes of this thread were people pick upon the worst case scenarios of trade bodies' PR departments where it then combines with ill informed people making confused statements about oil / petrol / diesel in the UK.

I've already noted my belief that government officials give too many signs of living in a state of magical thinking.

Ah so it's a let's pride ourselves ( with our wee checklists) on being so much cleverer than the dolts/ russian bots type of thread as usual!

Cheerio!

Well at least we got to Page 4 before the millennium bug crawled out from under the mouse mat

Darvit! Missed the Millennium Bug bingo.
Have we taken back control yet?
What about "making our own laws"?
Any "Hitler" /"Battle of Britain " references yet?

Who are these calmer voices?

Maybe try Mark Essex, the director of public policy at KPMG? You might not agree with what he has to say, but at least he stays reasonably calm about it

And no, I didn't expect the mention of the millennium bug to be popular ... just as it's not always popular when folk who've bought into hysteria find it was perhaps a bit overblown

The RHA's concerns are entirely justified, although many of their concerns are fixable in the timescale - if they're taken seriously.

Worries over fuel shortages aren't justified at all, in my opinion.

It's the 'Chicken Licken' reactions to some of these 'revelations' which industry have have been dealing with for over 2 years which get me. There are going to be problems. The problems aren't going to be the ones most shouted about on MN.

You know a bloke who made a killing on the Millennium Bug. No doubt everyone else who also know blokes (and women) who actually had to do a lot of work to make it right are lying.
Thank god, you have put us all straight. I really didn't remember correctly .

Yanbu. But the leavers can't say they weren't warned .

Yanbu

Say what you like about Brexit, it's an education in itself. I found this about ignoring worst-case scenarios:
newrepublic.com/article/109409/worst-case-scenarios-problem-neglect

YANBU to think that no deal would cause short term supply issues if we don't prepare for it (which I don't think we are) but YABU to think that no deal alone would decestate anything and not to realise that many farmers have vested interests due to recirvingsubsidies.

You should never take anything you hear out of context and without questioning it's impartiality.

I assume from recirvingsubsidies that decestate isn't a word I should be rushing to my dictionary to look up either?

Not at all, bellinisurge. I'm no IT expert, but don't doubt for an instant that some folk had to do some work to make sure things would be okay. But that didn't justify a guy gouging thousands for something he knew was unnecessary, nor does it justify those now making a killing out of promising us the end of life as we know it

As I've said so often, it's not the actual debate I find frustrating but the hysteria