'Not knowing when the Dawn will come, I open every Door,' Trump No. 95

[lionheart]

From Emily Dickinson.

Old thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3356297-Freedom-of-the-press-is-not-just-important-to-democracy-it-is-democracy-Trump-no-94

“3 in 10 Chance Democrats win control (30.7%)
7 in 10 Chance Republicans keep control (69.3%)”

This is a change in phrasing by the FiveThirtyEight team. When they said Hillary was 75% likely to win, everyone thought she would win; and criticised pollsters (and FiveThirtyEight) when she didn’t. But if you say “Trump has a 1 in 4 chance of being president”, we’ll, plenty of gamblers would put a bet on that, no problem. That’s FEELS like a much more realistic bet, when phrased like that.

'GOP Rejects Kavanaugh Accuser’s Bid for FBI Probe Before Hearing.
Grassley says there’s no need for the FBI to investigate.
Judiciary chairman says invitation to testify on Monday stands.'
www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-09-18/kavanaugh-hearing-plan-called-unacceptable-by-senate-democrats?__twitter_impression=true

I can see why he was the chosen one.

www.salon.com/2018/09/17/heres-why-the-allegation-against-kavanaugh-is-credible-hes-smeared-and-attacked-women-before/

just "one event" that tarnished his former company's reputation and attacking the "anti-war left" in the U.S
'Blackwater involved in 195 Iraq shootings'
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSN2739989220071002?__twitter_impression=true

Lincoln Pigman
@lincolnpigman
Listening to Erik Prince pitch his plan for peace in Afghanistan at a London think tank. Prince starts his speech by trashing McMaster as “a three-star general who wanted a fourth star” and was incapable of doing something “unconventional,” namely, adopting Prince’s plan
Prince attacks "academics who run their mouths" criticizing his plan and warns that "the military-industrial complex is real" (!) as if he isn't part of it.
Prince is also pretty proud that all it took to get through to Trump was a WSJ op-ed. I'm sure being Betsy DeVos's brother helps
Prince admits that some Afghan politicians benefit financially from perpetual war in Afghanistan, seemingly unironically
Prince charges the Pentagon with not being transparent enough about the state of the war in Afghanistan
The Taliban's idea of an Afghan peace is America's "surrender," Prince says
Prince: The Soviet Union "did a better job" than the U.S. in managing Afghanistan's natural resources
"A one hundred percent welfare case" is how Prince describes Afghanistan after years of American assistance
Answering a question about whether mercenaries can be trusted not to commit atrocities, Prince pushes back against the implicit criticism of Blackwater USA, saying it was just "one event" that tarnished his former company's reputation and attacking the "anti-war left" in the U.S.
mobile.twitter.com/lincolnpigman/status/1041648365363183616

It’s worth pointing out that FiveThirtyEight are not pollsters. They interpret polls. They aggregate polls, and weight different polls differently based on how accurate those polls have been in the past. That’s why they’re seen as reliable in forecasting.

Y, BelfastBloke, those are useful observations on FiveThirtyEight.

Trump eviscerates Sessions: ‘I don’t have an Attorney General’
thehill.com/hilltv/rising/407358-hilltv-interview-exclusive-trump-eviscerates-sessions-i-have-no-attorney

More accurate title to this discussion would be 'How Could .......'

'How Will The Troubled Kavanaugh Nomination Affect The Midterms?'
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-the-troubled-kavanaugh-nomination-affect-the-midterms/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

thehill.com/hilltv/rising/407358-hilltv-interview-exclusive-trump-eviscerates-sessions-i-have-no-attorney

“I don’t have an Attorney General. It’s very sad,” Trump told Hill.TV in an extensive and free-wheeling interview Tuesday from the Oval Office.

'FBI, Justice Dept plan to redact Russia documents despite Trump order for full declassification: report'
<a class="break-all" href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/407351-fbi-justice-dept-plan-to-redact-russia-documents-despite-trump?amp#click=t.co/XC3SiH6M1a" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/407351-fbi-justice-dept-plan-to-redact-russia-documents-despite-trump?amp#click=t.co/XC3SiH6M1a

'Asked what he thought the outcome of his long-running fight with the FBI, the president said: “I hope to be able put this up as one of my crowning achievements that I was able to ... expose something that is truly a cancer in our country.”'

'Trump: Release of FBI documents will 'expose something that is truly a cancer in our country' '
www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/trump-declassify-fbi-documents-page-cancer-828744

Thanks gum.

X-posted on Sessions (his position is precarious). I suppose the fact that Trump tried to explain the proposal to release the information means that he (or someone close) realises what kind of a line will be crossed.

Never stopped them before though.

Polish President's 'Fort Trump' Military Base Idea Sets Internet Ablaze
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/fort-trump-poland-donald-trump_us_5ba1ecfae4b046313fc08b15

edition.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/pj-smyth-brett-kavanaugh/index.html

From the link (someone who was believed to be at the party).

'"Personally speaking, I have known Brett Kavanaugh since high school and I know him to be a person of great integrity, a great friend, and I have never witnessed any improper conduct by Brett Kavanaugh towards women. To safeguard my own privacy and anonymity, I respectfully request that the Committee accept this statement in response to any inquiry the Committee may have."'

And from Adrian Perkins, whose name appeared amongst those supporting Kavanaugh:

'In regards to an inflammatory article posted at 11:19 PM from a NOLA based publication, I’ve responded regarding a letter that claims I am in support of the recent Supreme Court nominee. I did not sign this letter nor did I authorize the use of my name.'

And Fox doing its thing.

www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/9/19/1796892/-Fox-News-gets-in-on-smearing-Dr-Blasey-Ford-and-it-s-a-master-class-in-disgusting

edition.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/kavanaugh-accuser-friend/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2018-09-19T11%3A17%3A05&utm_term=image

'A longtime friend of Christine Blasey Ford the woman accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault tells CNN that Ford has previously said she needs "more than one exit door in her bedroom to prevent her from being trapped."'

www.politico.com/story/2018/09/17/five-races-that-could-tip-senate-826293

www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/allegations-against-brett-kavanaugh-are-not-simply-he-said-she-ncna910771?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/19/ted-cruz-texas-board-of-education-curriculum-hillary-clinton

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/19/trumpwashing-republican-resistance-trump-dangers-history

As an aside this is from a while back but I'll post it anyway because I can't remember seeing it at the time.

Prof. Sarah Pedersen
‏
@SarahPedersen2
22 Nov 2017

'When you hear that your new paper on Mumsnet's discussion of Donald Trump in Digital Journalism has had 9k+ hits on their Facebook page in four days!!!!'

Oh.

thehill.com/hilltv/rising/407367-trump-hints-at-new-executive-action-on-immigration-wants-filibuster-proof

'The president said he remains hopeful he can deliver on a border wall and that he found inspiration for the project while speaking at the Sept. 11 memorial in Pennsylvania.

“They built this gorgeous wall where the plane went down in Pennsylvania, Shanksville. And I was there. I made the speech. And it’s sort of beautiful, what they did is incredible,” he said. “They have a series of walls, I’m saying, it’s like perfect. So, so, we are pushing very hard."'

www.politico.com/story/2018/09/18/manafort-deal-pardon-mueller-trump-827898

'Robert Mueller seems to have built in safeguards to discourage the president from pardoning Manafort.'

www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2018/09/17/can-defeat-vladimir-putin/events/the-takeaway/

Yy, we did briefly talk about Prof Pedersen's paper when it came out. But 9K hits in four days? Phew. Nice one!