To stockpile food, medicine and petrol?

[Laudanumm]

So apparently we're now at very high risk of exiting the EU in March without a trade agreement with the EU. The government wanted to keep it secret, but it's been leaked that the middle of the 3 outcomes they're discussing, so not the bad one, is the port of Dover collapsing on day 1, immediate food shortages and almost immediate petrol and medicine shortages - as in, no food in the supermarkets. It's in the Sunday Times. AIBU to start stockpiling?

How exactly does waving through a Polish lorry full of whatever with no/minimal checks today differ from waving through a Polish lorry full of whatever in 12 months time? What protection do we have from these contaminated goods today that we wouldn't have after Brexit? They'd still be coming from the EU after all.

Because under WTO if we wave through Polish lorries we have to wave through imports from every other WTO member ie pretty much the entire planet. If we wave through chicken from the EU we have to wave through chicken from the USA. The only exception to this is if you have an agreed and approved Free Trade Agreement. Currently we can wave though Polish lorries because we are in an FTA with them but we're throwing that away plus the FTAs we have with 50+ other countries via the EU. No deal brexit means no FTAs with anyone.

How exactly does waving through a Polish lorry full of whatever with no/minimal checks today differ from waving through a Polish lorry full of whatever in 12 months time?

At the moment, Polish goods going into the SM have to adhere to the quality and safety rules of the SM. Polish goods going anywhere outside of the SM do not have to adhere to these same rules. There may be other rules they adhere to, but not the SM ones.
Yes they could send substandard goods in anyway. But once that was discovered there are mechanisms in place to sanction them and force them to comply.
Once we are outside the SM - they can send us any low grade quality crap they want. And we will have no rules of our own as to what our quality and safety standards are (because we have no trade agreement).
So they will not be breaking any rules if they send something dangerous.
Nor will we have anyone to complain to, nor any power to sanction Poland* in this event. We just have to accept whatever they send.

*other countries can be inserted here.

And that is the difference between waving a lorry through now - and in 12 months time.

plus what mimpi said.

By 'eck it's complicated this brexit stuff innit?

And that is the difference between waving a lorry through now - and in 12 months time.

Absolutely no difference at all then.

Current situation: if the goods don't comply with our standards - which are the same as EU standards - we prosecute the importer.

Situation in 12 months: if the goods don't comply with our standards - which are the same as EU standards - we prosecute the importer.

Waving through lorries to avoid hold-ups at the port, as was being suggested, isn't a matter of dropping the existing checks and barriers (we haven't got an open border with the EU after all), it's about not carrying out further checks above and beyond what's carried out already. And if we continue to have identical standards to the EU then why would any further safety and compliance checks be needed?

It was being suggested as an emergency measure to keep the supermarkets stocked.

With regard to farming and crop gathering, I’m not quite sure what the problem is here, surely the six-month seasonal agricultural workers scheme can be reinstated? As far as I am aware it ran quite smoothly until 2013 - shouldn’t be problematic to reinstate and it can be opened up to all not just EU. I picked grapes in Australia for six months and met some lovely people.

we prosecute the importer

How would we do this? I always believed sanctions came from the EU. The importer isn't going to be British, so how would we prosecute them?

Also are we keeping the same standards as the EU? I thought people wanted less red tape and regulation? Do we know what standards we are going to have inflicted on us in order to secure trade deals and keep the economy running and the population fed and medicated?

Situation in 12 months: if the goods don't comply with our standards - which are the same as EU standards - we prosecute the importer

WTF? I quite clearly said we will not be able to prosecute the importer - because they will not have broken any rule. We won't have any once we are out of the SM. In order to have rules you can implement, you have to have trade agreements - and we will no longer have them.

Did you even read the entire second half of my post? Did you understand it?

Plus all the stuff mimpi said about breaking international law if we wave through from one country and not another - when we have no FTAs.

There is a huge difference. There were two posts explaining the differences - and you come back with - 'so no difference'? FFS

And if we continue to have identical standards to the EU then why would any further safety and compliance checks be needed?
We can maintain these for ourselves - but the EU do not have to take our word for it and accept what we send them. Nor can we force them to comply with those rules on what they send to us. That is the inevitable consequence of leaving the SM

If we stay in the SM - none of this Armageddon stuff will happen anyway.

It's like banging your head against a brick wall.

It was being suggested as an emergency measure to keep the supermarkets stocked.
An illegal emergency measure, which will have far reaching ramifications well beyond the initial chaos of B-day. One that simply will not work and will make things much worse in the long run.

With regard to farming and crop gathering, I’m not quite sure what the problem is here, surely the six-month seasonal agricultural workers scheme can be reinstated?

Will they still want to come? To a 'hostile environment' as our home office has created? To earn a devalued pound? The draw of seasonal work was that the pay was far higher than that which they would get at home. This will no longer be true. Bulgaria and Romania are moving forward with the EU. We are descending into madness.

Bulgaria and Romania were the begining of the end.

All I can say is I hope the people who voted for brexit feel guilty they have screwed their country over

No, no guilt from me. Voted leave then and would do it again.

The hysteria is unbelievable.

I’d be very interested to know how many of those ‘planning [their] exit strategy’ 2 years ago, have actually exited. I reckon about 5, at a push.

Here in Australia, the crops are picked by backpackers...they earn an extra year in the country on their visitor's visa like that. Do 8 weeks or something and they get another year. Then they work in bars and coffee shops.

There are as a result, tonnes of backpacker;s hostels in rural areas. Which also supply jobs. The local one here is very respectable....there are curfews....they have to be back in at midnight. We never see any bother and they're mostly lads....from all over Europe. Lots of Irish kids.

The hysteria is unbelievable.

'Hysteria' based on a govt report.
I found out on the westminsterenders thread which Civil servant is claiming to have leaked the document. There is apparently scenarios 4 and 5 beneath the third scenario which is so terrible it remains hidden.

Go over to the thread to look at what they said and see for yourself.

I am praying this civil servant is just unhinged. But they are in a far better position to know this stuff than I am.

Voted leave then and would do it again.
In the vent of no deal, I'll be interested to see if you are still saying the same this time next year.

In the vent of no deal, I'll be interested to see if you are still saying the same this time next year

Given the typical leaver response of sticking their fingers in their ears and chanting 'project fear, take back control, EU superstate' etc whenever they are confronted with reality, not to mention blaming 'remoaners negativity' for the crash in the £ after the referendum result was announced, I'm fairly certain, if it goes tits up, it won't be the leavers fault.

I don;t think we get that many European backpackers in the UK I'm afraid. We're so close they just pop across for the weekend. I don't know that we get enough Aussie backpackers to makeup the shortfall.
In the 'hostile environment' they will not be offered an extension on their visas. TM kicked out students who were here perfectly legally in order to massage her immigration figures. I doubt travellers (of the tourist variety) will be treated any better.

After brexit - in the event of no deal - I cannot imagine we will get many backpackers full stop.

I'm fairly certain, if it goes tits up, it won't be the leavers fault.

Too true.

Icantreachthepretzels so were will all the immigrants live during the picking season ? What’s the kids got to do with it, mind you I picked strawberries with my mother for extra pocket money, I was sick to many times eat more than I put in the tray,
Use that very clever brain of yours, during the time they are picking they won’t be expected to apply for jobs it’s only seasonal
It’s narrow minded thinking like yours that’s holding things back,
Work house you’ve been listening to JRM to much

Icantreachthepretzels what good would it do the leaker to not release scenarios 4 and 5, surly they what to try and cause maximum panic, oh gone on tell me they suddenly felt guilty for the act they were carrying out

Icantreachthepretzels if it all goes tits up it won’t be the leavers fault, too true, that’s the best and most true comment you’ve made today.

The reason we need immigration is because of population figures. We have an elderly population living longer than ever before. On top of that we have a huge baby boomer (the clues in the name) generation either retired or about to retire. Subsequent generations have seen much lower birth rates.

This leaves us with a large pension aged group needing funding from the public purse - pensions, winter fuel allowance, extra health care, home care etc; We then don't have enough working age people paying tax to support that. in addition to this we need more carers, hospital staff etc;. That's why immigration will continue, because it's the only way we can support our elderly people.

There are many reasons why unemployed people find it hard to move into work. The main one in my opinion is inflexible childcare combined with jobs where you are expected to be super flexible.

I think we can do without this sort of thing:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/11/gangsters-on-our-doorstep

Who on earth is going to want to work in an environment where that is going on and for that sort of money. No wonder uk citizens don’t fancy it. I would have no problem with my DC doing fruit/crop picking for six months or gap year, learning what hard graft was and if they were paid at least minimum wage, but hell would freeze over before I put them in a situation where that shenanigans was going on, it’s not safe and not regulated.

Down with this sort of thing!

Pretzel that thread is massive...can you just copy and paste or link directly please? I can't find what you're referring to.

Is this the right thread?www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3198846-Westminstenders-Exit-2020-Vision?messages=100&pg=11

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3198846-Westminstenders-Exit-2020-Vision?messages=100&pg=11

No I see it's this one

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3267470-Westministenders-Brexmeggadon-Redux?watched=1&msgid=78408144#78408144

Oh, was that another volunteer for the Great Non-Preparation Leaver Pledge? Come on now, let’s see your Faith!