To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

Indeed. There was a lot of house building in the 1930s and slum clearance. there was further slum clearance (and London blitz bomb damage clearance and rebuilding) in the 50s and 60s (anyone who watches the BBC Midwife programme will have seen some episodes about that)
We've tried garden cities, the Quakers building for workers, there are all those miners' cottages of the 1800s my ancestors moved into in NE England to provide housing via work; just been a constant problem. We had rent controls which meant no private rented property at all just about which killed the rental market dead in the 70s but before that in about 1910 90% of people were in private rented places. Then the assured shorthold came out and suddenly people did not have to stay with parents all their lives or join a 20 year council house waiting list and private property could be let again. it's never been easy to get right however and it is very very variable around the country.

The last 5 years loads of changes have come in 3% extra stamp duty for many second home, annual tax on properties in companies - ATEDl; 15% stamp duty for properties in companies, highest stamp duty up to 12% for expensive properties; taxing 40% tax payer landlords on profits they don't make from the property which has caused loads currently to sell up and now we layer Brexit on top - recession perahps but I doubt so many people will leave there are homes for the asking.

Sprinklesinmyelbow - you've posted a link to a street in St Albans? But the most recent thing to have sold there is Aug 2017. And the peak for prices in London was...July 2017. (Quite possibly later in St Albans as ripples probably take longer to reach there.)

So not sure what you think your link shows?

Also, seems to be lots of very different properties so hard to draw general conclusions about house prices even in that one street?

FWIW, I know St Albans quite well as my MIL lives there and it is vastly over-priced - lovely but definitely not that lovely! I have noticed lots of reductions there too in recent months.

Sorry, looked again and was Jan 2017!

So a long time ago.

I think you'll find more recent data shows price falls in St Albans too.

Just starting.

Yeah, I know it better than you 😭

Those houses, the first return on a 3 bedroom house show that the properties on that street sold for more in 2017 than in 2016. Very quick, search. They are now all on the market for more than those 2017 sold prices also.

You won’t find that. Nice try though.

Thanks to section 24 it is now worth HMRC plowing resources into chasing landlords for tax. Some landlords maybe in for a surprise in early 2019
Yup! I am aware of all that Kenny33😉

There has been a housing crisis for 30 years. No government has dealt with it- I am not particularly confident anyone else will

As I said, it depends on what economic model you follow.

No one dealt with it because long after the fethisation that house prices will always rise (which is still evident on this thread), that in the run up to 2008 banks were giving out 110% mortgages, everyone was happy, everyone was rich, you could walk away with a 30K sum by buying some run down shit hole and painting the rooms in magnolia ala homes under the hammer, we are now in a situation that since then the governments have thrown pretty much everything they have to keep the asset bubble afloat, low interest rates, help to buy etc, etc

Before the 2008 crash the guardian were running middle page spreads of snapping up new build properties in northern working class towns, it didn't matter that the price they was stating was already outpricing the locals as it was a return on investment, now the snake has eaten itself the dynamics of the conversation has changed

Tories have gone against what many people thought they would and have and started to make BTL landlords the new cash cow which labour will jump onto if they get into power, both parties want more housebuilding and to be able to override local council objections, labour muted introducing taxes on foreign owners.

If you seriously think that up and coming governments are willing to write off a significant already rentier voter base and ignore that the situation will get worse if things carry on in this trajectory then I have a bridge I could sell you.

It has been a plate spinning exercise since 2008 and something will have to give at some point.

You’re very much presenting an opinion as fact justanotherlurker. It’s not about being right, it’s about opinion

@qwertyflirty we bought in May 2017, central S London. Not a great area, BIG price tag, was meant to be a 5 year flat.

By big I don’t mean in the millions btw. Normal big not London big.

You’re very much presenting an opinion as fact justanotherlurker. It’s not about being right, it’s about opinion

No, you're picking economic models and situations that suit your need and discarding the other, there is a vast difference.

As I said, you keep believing its a case of the Tories/Labour will write off the next 20 years of voter base so that you are not personally hit in the pocket, as I said, I have a nice bridge to sell you, and it's not just my opinion, the increasing loud voice within political circles shows your not thinking about anything beyond a "fuck you I've got mine" attitude.

justanotherlurker I’m sorry but I think you’ve mixed me up with another poster. Nothing you’ve just said makes sense in response to my posts on this topic.

Prices now off peak in my part of Hertfordshire.
A lot of reduced prices on Rightmove.

I think it is more regional and prices are levelling out. London prices needed to fall. Prices are on the up where I live. South Manchester. Prices didn't really fall during the crash either - just stayed the same for a couple of years. Weave just gone on the market and so far there are 6 viewings booked for Saturday and another 4 on Sunday. Estate agent thinks it will sell this weekend or 2-3 weeks max. She anticipates offers over asking price.

Sprinklesinmyelbow

"Those houses, the first return on a 3 bedroom house show that the properties on that street sold for more in 2017 than in 2016. Very quick, search. They are now all on the market for more than those 2017 sold prices also."

Er...yes, prices increased in 2017 from 2016 - but have fallen since. That was my point.

The houses you're talking about are "on the market" - crucially, they have not sold. No-one is prepared to pay those prices.

Get back to me when they've actually sold at those higher prices! (And no, going under offer doesn't prove that the owner didn't accept a lower offer.)

By the way, as houses on that street are so different, it would need to be the same or very similar house to make that point - if a 5 bed detached sells for more than a 3 bed terrace did, that does not count as proving that prices on that street are rising!

Lol.

Here's proof of falling prices in St Albans:

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63823711.html

A 2-bed house sold subject to contract in (or since) Feb 2018. (Not yet fully sold, so we can only see the asking price, not what yet was actually agreed, which may well be lower - it's not likely to be higher, as the property was already reduced.)

Compare this to:

www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=61073111&sale=88069407&country=England

A 2 bed house on the same street, sold in Aug 2017, so right at peak - 454K.

So a drop of 95K (about 25%) in half a year for very similar houses.

Sorry, forgot to say the first house was under offer at 360K.

Thanks, LemonysSnicket

Can’t see the second one but the first one posted is in dire need of a lot of work doing to it.

We have houses where I am with significant price differences depending on the state they’re in, even the crappiest houses are about £40k more than they were about a year ago. I’m in zone 4.

More on St Albans:

Here's what's for sale/under offer in St Albans, 2 bed houses or above. 11 reductions just on page 1.

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE%5E34&minBedrooms=2&sortType=1&propertyTypes=detached%2Csemi-detached%2Cterraced&primaryDisplayPropertyType=houses&includeSSTC=true

fuzzywuzzy

Oh come off it - 95K off for a tiny 2 bed house?

No amount of décor is going to cost that.

And the pp was actually claiming that prices in St Albans were continuing to rise! So the cost of the décor would need to be more than 95K

Lol.

All the properties in my area of commuterville south east are suddenly flying off the market. The problematic ones that have been hanging around for well over a year, on busy roads, small, no garages etc. A little mini boom going on here.

I think you’re alarmist OP. I’m surprised they don’t know you over on hpc.

Who knows what’s going to happen, but unless there are vast swathes of new builds I cannot see a plummet to the levels you are hoping for.

Sorry, the second link above for the house in St Albans costing 454K didn't work.

Here it is again:

www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=61073111&sale=88069407&country=england

Family houses here don't even get on the market. There is ruthless manoeuvring if someone dies or divorces local buyers all over it. That said can't see how prices can keep rising but people have been predicting a fall for last 10 years so wouldn't put any store by it.

Try going to Zoopla, seach for London and then change Most Recent to sort by Most Reduced.

Plenty of 2 beds that were asking £600k in 2017 now asking around £400k

Then remember Most Reduced properties are still only asking prices and the gap between Asking and actual Sold Prices according to Rightmove is 8%.

£400k - 8% is £368k and some buyers may even take £350k if they are motivated. A £250k 'loss' in just one year seems fairly significant.