To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

I'm amazed so many people get so aggressive about this. Prices are 100% on the slide in London & this will ripple out. I've just bought my first home & would not have been able to last year, that's how quickly things have changed. Society can't afford for any more price increases. A correction is under way & it'll be interesting to see where it stops. I imagine it has a long way to go yet...

ThroughThickAndThin01 - where is that in the SE?

Location or I don't believe you.

Sprinklesinmyelbow was claiming that prices in St Albans were still rising - I've just proved that prices for a 2 bed there have fallen by 25%+ in 6 months!

So unless you can give us actual proof of comparable sold prices or at least STC that are actually noticeably higher than last summer, I'll assume you are making it up.

I'm inclined to say you want house prices to rise. And are panicking because you can see the opposite is falling.

I'm a Mnetter and no, I don't post on hpc.

They might know me now if they've read this thread, lol!

OP, the point of starting a thread is to invite others to discuss your topic. You have been incredibly rude to several posters who have an alternative view.

If you are so determined that house prices are falling then good for you, but I doubt you have ever stepped out of London and are basing all your facts 'opinion' on whats happening within a 20 mile radius of your Costa coffee cup.

So, OK, there's a crash on the way if you say so. Happy now?

House prices are very different across the country. London is always its own bubble, but a crash there will filter out across the country over the next year or so.

If you go to the north or to parts of Wales you can still pick up cheaper properties, in the South West for example you can't easily unless you buy a shared ownership property.

House prices may drop and it happens. The two biggest issues are the higher rate of stamp duty for second homes and changes to Landlord mortgage relief on rental income. If the market crashes, the government could remove one or both and that would help the market.

If house prices drop, unless the property has to be sold (repossessed, owner died or gone into care, relocating etc), a lot of owners will hold tight and not sell. Landlords will not flood the market as why would they - they are still getting the rental income.

No-one will want to be in negative equity (most could not afford it) so will do what they can to hold tight.

The only way to have a 'proper' crash would be for prices to be reset and mortgages cut as well (i.e. your house is worth 20% less so your mortgage is cut by 20%) but that would never happen - it would cost too much and banks would go under.

London will always drop and has been at risk since the change to stamp duty and mortgage relief as there were/are a lot of properties in London which were being bought as rental properties or second homes.

That along with Brexit (I don't blame Brexit for everything but London has lots of foreign investment for second homes and people of twitchy about where they will stand after Brexit) give London its own bubble.

Having gone through a couple of House price falls I would say that it will be a case of a slight fall and no growth for a number of years given the forecasts for the economy.
The fundamental is that there are not enough homes being built but also that fab can’t afford them. Wages have to catch up with prices so they will have to meet up somewhere.
My daughter has been looking and we have noticed lots of houses being reduced ( North York’s) so hanging on until the end of the year to see how it goes.

Ooh, thanks, jennyj123

I never knew you could search like that on Zoopla.

Just looked at my local area and I am like

Can't believe some of the cheeky buggers who thought their crappy terrace was worth 600K!

(Still on the market nearly 2 years later, now at 475K.)

I need to try not to get too addicted to this feature...

I think people who were thinking of selling are just staying put and doing them up instead. There are hardly any for sale signs up in my part of London currently. People who don’t need to move will sit it out.

Fab? I meant FTB

@CornishMaid1 Youre wrong about Landlords holding tight.

The new tax changes mean many tens of thousands will be making an annual loss in this falling market. They will offload and in fact are doing so already hence big reductions with no chain flats. Remortaging for BTL and down valuations mean recent landlords will have to sell. They wont afford to finance. They cant put rents up as they are already charged at market value and wages are flat in most of the country.

All that without a rate rise.

www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/browse/bude/?q=Bude

I can only speak to my own flat I bought 2 years ago and just remortgaged. We bought it for 675, and they valued it between 725-750. It was fab, due to this out ltv rose so we got a much better deal. This in zone 1 London. We've noticed that big flats have kept their value but houses in our area have slowed down.

Speaking from the ither side, we are about to do just that. Taking our house off the market and will keep it for a few more years until uncertainty has passed. Although we have a lot of equity in it we'd be mad to sell it for a lower price just because the market has softened.

Suspect a lot of people will be doing the same as us and the number of properties for sale will reduce.

During the 2008 crisis I had a flat I was letting out that went into negative equity. Just sat it out and held on. Unless desperate there's no reason to do otherwise.

Don't forget as well the recession of the 2008 crash only lasted 5 quarters so actually didn't take a very long time to start climbing back up.

This is completely London centric data I work in property in North Yorkshire and what happens in London won’t have a knock on effect as London is such a bubble and not reflective of the UK housing market as a whole, I don’t know what the OP is basing her opinion on but it’s not fact or experience. The rest of the UK has merely recovered from 2008 crash since 2014 whereas as London has grown out of control, and I shouldn’t think it will crash more that there’ll be a regaining of sense. Housing stock in the areas I work in continues to be extremely scarce and the market is slow which will continue to maintain house prices.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the property market in Newcastle in the next couple of years.
The council have given the go ahead for a ridiculous number of student accommodations to be built. The idea is to keep the students in halls the entire time they are at uni and free up the houses they would normally rent.
I’m not sure how it’s going to work in practise though as the students normally live in four of five bedroom houses which most people can’t afford, also many of the suburbs economies rely on the students, and to be honest I can’t see students not wanting to move out and get a party house as halls are so strict.

Oh god OP what is wrong with you? You’ve not proven anything. You’re also mansplanning to the whole bloody tread which is just rude. You’re absolutely bonkers and don’t seem to have a real grasp on how sales work from beginning to end. If you’d even sold a house you would have more insight

I'm sure I forgot some.

I’m not telling you my location OP, and not concerned whether you believe me or not.

Btw, I’ve followed alarmist housepricecrash since around 2008. They’ve done me a huge favour. They alarmed me so much with their alarmist “crashy crashy see this house price sold 30% less than on the market......” and “interest rate hike next month” (oh yes that happened threads every 5 minutes that since then my eye rolling DH and myself have paid off over £200,000 on our mortgage. Whilst the housepricecrashers sat tight and rented for a decade waiting for their desired housing crash to happen. Which it didn’t. Poor buggers.

So, it may or may happen OP, we all would like that crystal ball. But excuse me for being dismissive of your attention seeking thread title. Those poor housepricecrashers still waiting for their moment might be delirious yet. Can’t see it myself.

Tea that's interesting about newcastle - my home city.
i was looking at my old records from the 80s recently. My university accommodation (not in Newcastle) today costs four times the then rent AFTER allowing for inflation and nothing more is provided than now - same rooms etc. So I suspect the universities are making a fair bit of profit on it all -sorry bit of a side issue to the thread. The larger student houses (my twins are each moving into a house with 7 separate bed rooms in September at university - again not in Newcastle) could be converted to two flats I suppose in Newcastle. We had to knock a lot of money off our parents' house to sell it in Newcastle around 2009 ish. It is a very different market form down here in newcastle although a house is still for sale up there on my parents' old road for £3m (yes in Newcastle) and has been for about 4 years - so clearly like 2 on my road down here on sale for 6 years at over £2m utterly overpriced.

So to all those who think the market is still buoyant are you assuming we will have low interest rates for a very long time?

LifeBeginsAtGin

Lots of people have posted and some agree with me and some don't.

You seem that think that the point of AIBU is to agree with everyone. Well, I can't, as they don't all agree with each other!

Nowhere have I been "incredibly rude to several posters who have an alternative view" - I may not agree with people who think that prices will continue rising, but I have not ANYWHERE been rude to any of them.

I have however given I hope as good as I got to a few posters who chose not to discuss house prices at all, but instead to make really childish personal attacks on me. I am not a punching bag and if people don't like the fact that house prices are falling that does not give them a right to attack me personally.

Shooting the messenger won't make the message go away, LifeBeginsAtGin.

ThroughThickAndThin01 - well, up to you, but if you won't say where you live or which area you're referring to, forgive the rest of us if we have to discount your anecdata.

I'm sure prices are continuing to rise in many areas.

I'm also sure that few of those areas are in London and the SE>

Your anecdote about what happened in 2008 is fascinating - but am not sure what it has to do with the current situation, a decade later?

I would be surprised if anyone thought the market is still bouyant in London. Good location properties will usually keep their value particularly if you have them for a good while so I would not worry about a few ups and down as you are buying a home to live in.

I was paying 6% interest rate around 2004 (and up to 12% in the 80s). It goes up and down.

This is quite interesting on mortgage rates as goes back to 1939 www.bsa.org.uk/BSA/files/5c/5c180498-5e52-4a41-b022-5821c25f3cbd.pdf That shows my parents wer epaying between 6 - 15% interest inhte 60s and 70s for example. We had al ot of inflation 60% within 3 years in the 70s - awful time.

You are a bit too try hard OP . Love your doggedness.

Sprinklesinmyelbow -

"You’re also mansplanning to the whole bloody tread"

I'm a woman dear!

Lol at the idea that a woman with opinions!!! must be a man.

Oh and saying "You’re absolutely bonkers" when I've just proved you were lying through your teeth about St Albans prices rising just makes it clear you have lost the argument. Oh, and you're incredibly rude, too.

But that was obvious.