To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

The housing market has always been very local, but it seems more regional now than it has been. In my area (city, northern England), prices basically flatlined for years after 2008 with some modest gains in the last 5 years. Nothing like the overheating that London has been through. I think any correction will probably also be quite regionally varied. I suspect we will see some gentle falls in the capital/south east, and then stagnation after Brexit, rather than a dramatic crash.

I bloody hope so, I'm buying next year! But yes, sorry if you own already and all that...

Here’s hoping that prices will crash- maybe teachers and nurses can buy now? In my area for a half-decent one bedroom flat without parking or decent proportions, you could easily waste near to £300,000. Absolutely ridiculous for a tiny, average box not even in London.

Here’s hoping that prices will crash- maybe teachers and nurses can buy now

What about the teachers and nurses who have already bought and who will be fucked?

Then there is the whole topic of interest rate rises, & how long we are going to kick that can down the road.

Probably not, but even speaking as a homeowner it would be better if they were to fall at least somewhat.

I’m in Manchester and it’s rocketing here. London is a total separate entity from the rest of the uk price wise

"there are simply not enough houses to go around and ths prices will not fall"

Don't think this is true, or we'd be seeing vast numbers of homeless people.

The properties are there, but what is unbalanced is who owns them.

Price falls would see more BTL landlords/investors selling up excess property and this could then be bought by those currently renting.

The idea that there is not enough property has been proven to be a myth.

For those who think it’s business as usual the general pattern in the last 10 years of London used to be ime that you bought your flat in zone 2 or zone 3 for 250-350k so still very hard to get on the market. Those flats were then sold for 500-700k and enabled sellers to move to a house in zone 4 or the home counties. Now that entry prices are so high how does that pattern continue? Throw in tighter lending, stamp duty, uni debt & higher cost of living Im baffled.

and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere

That's not true. Here in West Yorkshire London price trends don't seem to affect us either way.

As I said, "Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere

I don't think it will be like this, this time. Over the last few years, prices have boomed in London and SE, but in other areas, they are still around the 2007 peak, sometimes still below that level. There has been a second boom in London that simply hasn't happened elsewhere.

So more and more people can't even think of affording in and around London and are starting to realise that it isn't the be all and end all and that they can have a more comfortable life, including buying a house, on a lower salary in other UK cities.

Probably adding the uncertainty of Brexit has affected foreign investment and also reduced demand too (eg talk of certain companies moving from London to Frankfurt etc).

I think it’s a London or possibly London and SE issue. I live in the NW and it’s only in the last 2yrs that my house has risen (slightly) above what we paid for it in 2007. However, it’s risen quite a bit in the last year. I think in the Midlands, NW and Yorkshire the market is just starting to see the buoyancy that the SE and SW saw 2013-2017.

X posts with Barbara

Bluntness100

"I think you've got house prices and house values mixed up. They are two different things. Price is what the average initial asking price is. Value is how much it sells for. I think in London the drop is less than 1% in values ie what they actually sold for."

Er...no. In my OP, I quoted you the figures - average London property is down 17K or about 4% since July 2017(annual falls currently about 1% - that's because they rose up to a peak in July 2017 and then have been falling ever since - expect to see those falls becoming obvious in annual figures by this July).

House prices will fall in London and the South because demand is falling. The reason being is that people are leaving London.

I think this will be an increasing issue particularly in the next few years. 3 of my neighbours & their families have left London, 1 to Bristol, 1 to Edinburgh & 1 to Manchester. They had good budgets but wanted a better quality of life & the salary cuts were not significant once you factored in how far your money can go.

I was born & raised in London & it’s an amazing city but I can completely understand why young people don’t aspire to working long hours in order to afford a small box on the outskirts of London & factor in the joy of an overpriced & packed commute. What’s the incentive?

*"there are simply not enough houses to go around and ths prices will not fall"

Don't think this is true, or we'd be seeing vast numbers of homeless people.*

Not sure where you live OP, but I do see vast numbers of homeless people

I live in Lambeth, there are 23,000 families on the council waiting list. If that's not vast numbers of homeless people, not even including the large numbers also on the streets, I don't know what is.

Have my first

BarbaraofSevillle (great name :) btw):

Agree - have already said that I don't think prices will fall in areas that haven't risen for the last decade. That should be obvious.

What seems apparent is that prices in areas which have risen massively in the last 5 years will also fall somewhat - maybe as much as they rose, though probably not.

Basically, if you bought a house for 200K a decade ago and it is now worth 200K, in a couple of years, it will probably still be worth...200K.

BUT if you bought a house a decade ago for 250K and it now worth 500K, then don't be totally shocked if say 5 years from now it is back down to say 350K.

Unjustified price rises are unsustainable unless you also have big wage increases, which we just haven't seen.

What wage increases like this you mean?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-43482886

My friend round the corner from me in SE London put her two bedroom victorian first floor flat on the market last week for £380k and sold it within 2 weeks for £400k.

Hopefully that bodes well for us as we're in a similar place and would quite like to move out of London to somewhere with a garden in a year or two.

AlanRickmansRightFoot

"I live in Lambeth, there are 23,000 families on the council waiting list. If that's not vast numbers of homeless people, not even including the large numbers also on the streets, I don't know what is."

You do know that people on the council waiting list are not homeless, don't you?

Can you imagine Lambeth with 23,000 on the streets?!!!

right back at you for that idiotic post.

maybe teachers and nurses can buy now

I live in a run down Northern town. Around here the teachers and nurses are the well paid and the ones who can afford to buy. The local average wage is just £20k, so nurses and teachers are the affluent due to national pay bargaining.

Hopefully London house prices will crash.

There are plenty of non-rich people in London for whom this would be an unqualified disaster, so it's not very nice to wish that really, is it.

Also the younger millennials are tuned in to the work/life balance & the idea of remote working, I think they have a different mindset. My brother went to live in Barcelona for 6 months & carried on working for his UK company at their request whilst out there. Me, 5 years older would never have contemplated this. He has not even considered buying in London but is looking at some other cities & he plans to commute one day a week or just move jobs.

MN can be a great, supportive place.

But the glee that is shown on threads such as this about people losing money on houses, and the judgement that is shown that they must in some way have too much money and be stupid to buy at such a high price, makes me want to cry sometimes.

Some people have worked hard, bought a home where they live and work and now may be faced with being in negative equity, having remortgage issues etc.

Try not to be so happy that other people may end up suffering please.

AlanRickmansRightFoot - earnings growth that just about keeps pace with inflation is not going to underpin price rises of 100% in 3 years in some areas of London/surrounds.

In no fantasy version of economics does the maths add up.