To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

Againfaster you can rightmove the area, the gardens are divided as they are purpose built maisonettes so can be private if necessary. My good friend used to live there, moved in no fence but erected one when child came along.

RedToothBrush don’t know them well enough to know the details just know it was in the footballer area.

boom - I guess if you live/work near to train stations both end, the commute from Birmingham could end up being quicker than the commute from outer to inner London?

"I had one friend who looked to buy in Brighton but decided against & went to Edinburgh"

Bit of a difference in weather between those two places, though . Send him an umbrella or seven.

But the cost in train fares would make it insane to commute from Birmingham, surely?

pigmcpigface True that’s why I might consider commuting but when I looked in Birmingham, my job paid ok so would ideally just a new job. Yeah I know, random! I think it was also that Brighton is pretty expensive but suspect they pulled city names out of a hat.

boomboom12 aw bless her trust you to be the only one to give her grandbabies and 10 mins is too far , you should build a granny flat for her think how lovely that would be for you all

Don’t ever say the words granny flat! 😆 I just started googling Cheshire properties and some of them are wow! Right I need to actually get some rest as supposedly I’m sick.

Ahhh bless you BoomBoom12 the trouble is these threads are addictive hope you are well soon m'dear . I will go back to the Christmas threads where l know my place hehe

It depends where you are. £1.3m is cheap for our road so that one realitistically price sold (to two doctors as far as I'm aware) and the trying it on over £2ms been for sale for over 4 years are not selling because they are over priced. The difference is that the first house that sold the lady wanted to move (old age, moving in to a property right by her son), the others the families would like to see but don't have to.

The point above about risk is a good one. Some of my risks have gone very badly wrong - see my posts earlier on; others have paid off. I am quite happy to take on risk. Sometimes if you're too cautious in life you don't get on. On the other hand you never lose money on a property if you don't buy one I suppose. Eg last year one of my children bought at what we all know is probably the top of the London market at least for the next 5 years, and they could buy because fewer people were making offers, got a nice 2 bed place they like and all is well. The fact if it were sold today I expect it would get less than paid for it doesn't matter as they will be in ot for a while and with a repayment mortgage and if it falls the next place they move to will be cheaper and even more cheaper.

Thank you Mrsmadevans 👋

, they will kill or cure Boomboom12 , you are very welcome m'dear . It is nice to speak to someone normal

qwertflirty definitely worth it because of the bad renting experience, and we did bargain them down from a low starting point (bought at the same price that they'd bought for 2 years earlier as they were European and needed to move back quickly).

Also, because of the stamp duty relief on lower value places prices seem to be holding below £500K due to FTB demand, so we may not do so badly (was just under).

We went into this with our eyes open (studied Economics and love sifting through data), we knew it was going to be rough for a few years but just hoping it's not too rough.

I think there's a lot of pent up demand at the moment as lots of people are holding back to see how things will go. There are a lot of variables though - how fast and to what level will interest rates go up? What will happen about stamp duty? Wages? Inflation? And Brexit? No-one can possibly predict what's going to happen, but the likelyhood of a full on crash is slim (or maybe I'm fooling myself, who knows!)

Bluntness, people wont be confused by media reports if the house down the road sells for less than a year ago. The smarter ones that need to sell will price accordingly and the whole thing just snowballs. Same as every crash in history.

Throw in an interest rate rise in August and things could get very interesting indeed. In many areas, it wont be a sellers market if a high percentage of the 1.5 million amateur landlords decide to get out quickly with some gains rather than sit and watch their investment fall in value. This will play out over years of course, but the smart money is getting out or has got out of London property IMO.

I did the same thing as the OP 12 months ago in London.

So far the prices in the area I offered in are down 15% and dont look like they will stop falling any time soon.

That's £60k off in 12 months for me!!! That would have been most of my hard earned deposit gone !!!!

The £15K in rent I pay pails into insignificance

I nearly made the biggest mistake in my life buying, so go on girl, pull out.

If you've seen a 3% so far this year, on a 400K+ house that's your rent covered.

God knows how much and how fast the prices will fall.

If the immigrants are going home or the mortgage rates shoot up we might see some massive falls. I'd certainly wait till mortgage rates are back above 3% before buying now.

Some people are talking about 80% off in the rougher parts of London!!!

I was a bit skeptical about that but Hong Kong collapsed 60% in the 90's!!!!

Lastly, there are some quite sinister posts on here trying to bully the OP ( black listing by agents etc ).

If you have to ask for financial advice on an internet forum it's probably best you hold off buying.

Lastly, dont believe everything you read on forums, they seem to be full of vested interest EA type bullies trying to get people to buy houses an crazy prices. A bit like the mad emails I get daily now about buying bit coin.

If a deal is too good to be true...

www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?locationIdentifier=POSTCODE%5E10537&referrer=propertyDetails&referrerPropertyId=72592580

Prices rising in south east

Just one area checked. Milton Keynes, parts of Bedfordshire, Stevenage, Hatfield, Harpenden, just a few that continue to rise in the SE.

I wonder if people are keeping one London job/wage, but relocating to other cities.
They are. I know several.

Manchester has a bit of a way to go before it's the new London. And I say that affectionately, I do like the city.
I meant in terms of being the place to invest in property. Lots of companies relocating from London too.

London seems to be very variable too - pricier areas are seeing some big falls, but more reasonable areas are staying steady.

People are leaving London & UK (many in my sector) because of Brexit but there are also plenty of jobs which is the main thing that draws people to London.

I think prices will crash at some point as they are excessive in comparison to average incomes. It's just a question of when. Perhaps when Trump decides to have a war and May/Johnson blindly follow him.

But crashing isn’t going to help people afford to buy a house is it? They’ll be mass unemployment, a recession, mortgage lending will shrink and people won’t move. Thy would have to crash enormously (like by 50%) in many areas to be affordable. That simply won’t happen

What is more likely is a long, sustained period of no growth or small falls or rises coupled with government stimulus to encourage wage growth. Then in about 20 years, we could have affordability.

Then in about 20 years, we could have affordability.

So another generation pretty much wiped out of house ownership then.

Politics would change hugely if that were to be the case.

Hi again ohfortuna
Are you aware of the letting agency regulations that have come into play for tax year 17/18?
For those that aren’t, letting agents now have to provide HMRC with the amounts they have paid to all landlords over the year. HMRC will be reconciling this with the tax returns submitted by 31st Jan 19 and going after those landlords who haven’t submitted a tax return or have but maybe have underdeclared income. Thanks to section 24 it is now worth HMRC plowing resources into chasing landlords for tax. Some landlords maybe in for a surprise in early 2019.

It won’t happen anyway justanotherlurker

@Sprinklesinmyelbow

Well it depends on what economic model you subscribe to.

The fact that all major political parties accept there is an issue means that it wont be long before the temper the market either by increasing supply or raising interest rates.

No political party will cut off a large swathe of the voter base no matter how much you think it won't happen.

There has been a housing crisis for 30 years. No government has dealt with it- I am not particularly confident anyone else will