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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

999 replies

qwertyflirty · 16/05/2018 09:23

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

OP posts:
HateIsNotGood · 16/05/2018 16:56

Yes - it does appear that quite a few agree here that you have to move to the cheaper areas if you want to get on the property ladder - it doesn't matter how old you are.

Are you still at Uni OP?

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2018 16:57

However, I think falling house prices may resolve much of what you describe. And I think there are certainly elements in government now that are keen for that to happen.

I think there is a mixed bag of attitudes in government. Its not just national government, but also local government that plays a significant role here. I think there will be conflict between local councillors and central government as the local government are concerned about paying the price for unwanted developments being pushed through against the will of local residents whilst the penny is starting to drop with government that few house owners has an effect on what voters do at the polls. It works in different directions whether its Labour or Conservatives at local/national level.

What the public NEEDS is the right type houses, but the competing political interests mean any action is likely to be insufficient and to be slow in coming.

For example Tory Council doesn't want to upset their NIMBY locals but the government know they need to increase ownership in middle classes to protect their vote nationally.

Or conversely, Labour Council wants to build lots of social housing, but Labour government knows that this will upset many of its educated young middle class voters who want to buy. But they don't want to increase home ownership too much, because this mean they are more likely to vote Conservative.

Political interests sadly come before the actual need of the public.

Something HAS to give at some point with this though. The status quo is unsustainable.

But I also don't see house prices falling much at all. They will drop back, but they won't collapse. Too much is invested in property. It just means property won't sell and will remain on the market for longer. With fewer people moving in general as its not worth doing so.

The people who should be worried should be estate agents.

My guess is that demand will eventually mean that developers will make more money from buying smaller properties rather than luxury ones too. A few years of recently built developments standing empty and developers not making a profit on them will focus a few minds.

You are also likely to see larger properties / plots be split into smaller ones as they will have more value as semis or flats than as detached properties.

The majority of the value of houses isn't in the house itself but the land. And I don't see the value of land dropping, because no one wants to build on green belt / spaces as that's politically damaging to all parties.

qwertyflirty · 16/05/2018 16:58

Zampa - agree that the reduction in seriously high earners can't but impact on London.

That said, I doubt Brexit will actually happen... But if it does, then yes, it would clearly have a big impact on house prices.

OP posts:
Againfaster · 16/05/2018 17:02

sorry not following your thought process there, what do you mean boomboom?

I've sold maybe around 900 newbuild properties in the last 8 years with the psf price increasing year on year in line with the market.
I've bought and sold 3 of my own around sw london the same time and they've always increased although by less for the last time.

qwertyflirty · 16/05/2018 17:02

RedToothBrush

The Tories were always the party of homeowners. And that means that continually rising prices threatens their long-term future - because if young people can't buy, that's their future potential voters gone.

So I think they recognise that that situation needs to be resolved. It's very obvious in May's rhetoric and in changes to BTL taxation.

OP posts:
boomboom12 · 16/05/2018 17:06

Againfaster Can you post examples where like for like properties have sold for more than they did 2/3 years ago?

Decorated nicer but smaller, leasehold and not end of terrace. but I’m sure you think it’s worth 55k more

www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=61634855&sale=88030962&country=england

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2018 17:07

So I think they recognise that that situation needs to be resolved. It's very obvious in May's rhetoric and in changes to BTL taxation.

I agree. But its still not going to be easy for them to get it through their grassroots and be popular at local level with those who already own.

Plus May is very good at saying things. She's not so great at actually doing them. One of her problems right now, is that she and the party and so focused on Brexit is that all other issues are a side show and not as high on the agenda as perhaps they should be. That means any change will be a lot slower than it should be.

Furano · 16/05/2018 17:07

Great post @RedToothBrush

I’ve said on previous threads about houses. I know an awful lot of people who have bought in London recently (people with very good earnings).

I don’t know anyone who bought without an external cash injection from parents or inheritance.

Mrsmadevans · 16/05/2018 17:19

Boomboom12 that is a great idea !

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2018 17:20

Re: Manchester.

Its the new London. A lot of jobs have been relocated there. You can't get as much on your investment in London as you can in some parts of Manchester. So that's where money is going.

Manchester is failing to build smaller builds though. And there are still only so many people who can afford to buy a £400,000 property. A lot of the flats being built in the city will not be lived in...

Manchester does not have as many people on high enough incomes for them to be viable as anything but investment properties.

I suspect that there will be a saturation point in the market in the South Manchester Commuter Belt soon enough...

Againfaster · 16/05/2018 17:22

from a quick glance; Private Garden as opposed to shared could add 20-30k easily of not more.
Plus the money spent on it. if you were to "do up" the other property 30k can go pretty fast.

I'll have to post you examples of genuine rises when back at a computer as its not easy to find and compare on the phone to make sure i send you the right things. will get back later.

m0therofdragons · 16/05/2018 17:22

Prices go up and down but I can't see how they can fall to disastrous levels when there are not enough homes. Where there's demand and mortgages available the market can't plummet. Drop a bit, stall occasionally and have slow months but not plummet.

boomboom12 · 16/05/2018 17:23

Mrsmadevans The probs is I’m the only one with the dear gc & my mother is a little dramatic. When my sister bought in East London (years ago) she cried cause it was so far away 🤣. I live 10 mins walk from her ☺️

boomboom12 · 16/05/2018 17:24

RedToothBrush

I know a banker who’s moved from London & spent 1.2m on a house. Apparently it’s huge.

FunkyHeroCat · 16/05/2018 17:24

qwertflirty we bought last year with a 95% mortgage after saving for years and years and being booted out of two expensive rentals in two years (with our family) because each time the landlord wanted to sell. The only thing we could afford (zone 3, reasonable area) was a two bed flat for us and two sons who really need their own rooms.

Both in our forties, so can't get anything near a 25 year mortgage, and will be paying outrageous prices for this slat as soon as our two year fix ends as we are already in negative equity and we won't be able to get the 90% mortgage with a better rate that we were hoping for.

We can console ourselves with the fact that a) at least it's secure and the landlord can't get us out on a whim;
and b) because we're paying it off so fast, it won't take long to have more equity - but far too late for us (age-wise) to move on to a house, so our kids will be sharing a room until they're teenagers unless we move out of the area we live in.

I also think that the market here will go down a little and then stabilise (as long as they don't raise interest rates too fast). I think this because mortgage payments are still affordable at these interest rates, and because wages are (finally) going up which will improve P/E ratios and more people will be able to afford to buy.

As long as inflation keeps going up by 2-3%, the value of houses will decrease, even as the price stays the same, so we may have a drop of 2/3% a year in price, but it's potentially a drop of 4-6% in value - so 5% a year over 2017 and 2018, but then as confidence returns (which it will) that will pick up again.

So no, I don't think there will be a crash, but prices will (and should) go down (btw I'm guessing by the lack of empathy for all the people who have told you they're struggling that you're late 20s, male, no kids - close?)

qwertyflirty · 16/05/2018 17:26

But is there demand? At these prices?

That's the point.

OP posts:
Justanotherlurker · 16/05/2018 17:26

@m0therofdragons

And whilst that's true, another factor is that house prices are largely dictated by what people can afford, if the bottom rung of the ladder needs government intervention and or family help then a correction is needed and for some that will be a plummet.

pigmcpigface · 16/05/2018 17:27

I think I remember seeing some data that suggested that Birmingham and Bristol were the cities that were benefitting most from the London exodus, along with Brighton. Being close (in temporal terms) on the train seems to be a factor here - I wonder if people are keeping one London job/wage, but relocating to other cities.

Manchester has a bit of a way to go before it's the new London. And I say that affectionately, I do like the city. Smile

Personwithhorse · 16/05/2018 17:27

It is not true that all young people cannot afford to buy. This may apply to London where the combination of huge immigration plus companies being allowed to build ludicrously expensive flat that are only marketed to people in China etc has left places empty.

People in cheaper areas are buying, and 100,000 Eastern Europeans are returning home so that will allow for more homes for British people

boomboom12 · 16/05/2018 17:28

Againfaster

All the gardens in these properties are “shared” some just have a fence up as a division. Honestly it’s fine don’t waste your time, you believe what you want & i’ll do the same.

Againfaster · 16/05/2018 17:29

it says private garden on the last one you sent which is what I picked up on

qwertyflirty · 16/05/2018 17:29

FunkyHeroCat - no, not even vaguely close! Funny that you think I'm male! Ha.

I am hugely sympathetic - but you obviously made a hard-headed decision to buy despite the cost and knowing that prices could fall. That was a gamble and in your position it's not one I could take.

Did you not worry about the danger of prices falling so that you wouldn't be able to remortgage? Or was it worth it just because of the bad renting experience?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 16/05/2018 17:31

I know a banker who’s moved from London & spent 1.2m on a house. Apparently it’s huge.

The houses over a million, near mine really aren't shifting. They are beautiful and huge but not shifting.

boomboom12 · 16/05/2018 17:34

pigmcpigface Some friends I know who moved to Bristol have taken jobs there. Wages not that different. I had one friend who looked to buy in Brighton but decided against & went to Edinburgh. If we moved I wouldn’t commute more than a day or 2 a week, commuting sucks!

Justanotherlurker · 16/05/2018 17:36

It is not true that all young people cannot afford to buy.

No, but it's becoming a situation that all political parties are looking to address it somehow.

Everyone knows it cannot continue, yet everyone thinks that their house should rise in value and in the next breath complain about the cost of living.