To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

I agree RedTooth. I also think the situation is going to get a lot worse (for non home owners) before it gets better.

Mrsmadevans Yes I don’t think Rightmove shows this & once a potential buyer sees a reduction of course they negotiate harder. Yes I love my home, it may be too small but when the day comes to leave I will cry buckets.

1 says share of freehold the other doesnt say anything - is it leasehold or freehold? 2 very different and possibly expensive differences

Plenty of falls in asking prices near me, houses that would of been £330k in 2016/17 are now £300k or offers above £295k and houses that would of been £300k are around the £285k mark, even saw one for £265k (but that needed a bit of work).

Those people that really need to sell due to divorce, death etc will be offering some hefty discounts which then sets the lowest price for the street. New sellers have to face up to this reality if they need a quick sale. I would imagine any buyers will start asking for 10%-15% off easily in some areas/streets.

Againfaster Just look yourself, tons of examples. And my point re the difference of 350 sq ft in the houses I posted? It doesn’t matter what I say as you dont want to accept it nor do you have too. Ive been here years & have lots of equity, my parents house was 70k in the 80s is now 2million, I just don’t see how things can continue this way.

In my area, the cheapest properties basically aren't shifting. All that's moving are mid-priced houses - I'm guessing bought by other people in mid-priced houses shifting around. Or maybe by people in top-priced houses downshifting?

How much are they? Are they 2 beds? Are your local schools good?

If they are two beds but the schools are good, the price is driven up.

BUT If people are buying later, they are too expensive for someone younger to buy, then demand for them might be lower. The price still stays higher than other areas which are less attractive though.

There will be more demand for young families or people wanting to start a family for small three beds. Thus the 2 beds are less attractive and the property just doesn't shift but the value is still there (in land value alone).

(Basically they are effectively above the ceiling price for a first time buyer - who is less tied to schools so will buy more somewhere else, but the area is very attractive to people looking to move to the second rung of the ladder and get the benefit of the schools - but will never be able to move higher up the ladder)

RedToothBrush

Thanks so much for taking the time to write lengthy, considered posts.

Agree with all of that.

However, I think falling house prices may resolve much of what you describe. And I think there are certainly elements in government now that are keen for that to happen.

Boomboom12 we are the lucky ones in this l think , I have no desire to sell either but my DC are priced out of the market atm , swings and roundabouts

House prices are not going to crash - too many people would lose too much money.

Buy if you want to buy. And I'm buying. And my kids will be buying, (even if it is a studio flat in a grotty postcode because you have to start somewhere).

We all have a story about the friend who sold "at the top" and waited for the fall so that he could buy "at the bottom" and who could now barely afford a shed.

I would also point out freezer that plenty of people have two kids in a two bed flat. It might not be ideal, but it is possible. You can't dish out the whole 'lentil and pasta' story to one group, demanding that they suffer and strive, and not expect it to be dished straight back atcha when it comes to your own housing needs

I agree. Not in response to the person it was meant for as I didn't see their post, but I think this statement is true when it comes to a lot of home owners.

It's depressing to hear when people say things like "we aren't rich, we worked hard for our money". Like other people in much less fortunate positions haven't worked just as hard, in many cases

That aside, as I don't know much about economics, but doesn't housing prices falling just mean those already owning will have to stay put?

If so, I can't say I feel much sympathy because you can't buy a bigger and better house, when prices falling mean someone else is able to now afford a house.

But I do understand it's not that simple and housing prices lowering means a worse economy as a whole.

Justanotherlurker, I think that diagram in the Guardian article shows clearly whats going on in London. People are moving out of the city.

The question for me, is who and why.

I am guessing that young people are finding work elsewhere (for a better quality of life) and perhaps older people are not downsizing in London, but instead are moving to the country to retire. Therefore the demand for downsizing in London would be lower than elsewhere in the UK. (First time buyers are not competing with retirees for property as they are elsewhere).

London prices imho are completely separate from the rest of UK. London has seen drastic increases of prices but many other places haven't.

I'm sorry to people in London if your prices plummet, but it could allow lots of people who really need to get on the housing ladder the chance.

Isn't there a forum called something like house price crash or such like?
They read these threads here and have a giggle to themselves about how stupid we all are

They've been posting there for about 15 years waiting for the prices to crash

My first thought when I saw this thread was the Housepricecrash forums. God, they were a strange lot. I have no idea whether they are still there forecasting imminent doom

They're still alive and well

jennyj123

Yes, near me the drops are similar.

Absolute bottom of the range 3 beds were going for about 420K at peak. Now more like 350K. 5 years ago, these would have struggled to reach 200K.

So a fair way down on where they were at peak, but a long way up on where they were just a few years ago.

Hence why I think they may have further to fall.

Mrsmadevans My DC are still pre school age so I’m hoping things resolve in 20 years, probably naive but yes at least we can help. I’d rather prices dropped so they could get on the ladder themselves & having grown up in London I think it’s a shame that so much of a child’s future depends on whether their own parents owned or not, no matter how hard they “work”. Not helped by the crazy catchments in the areas with good schools & the associated house prices.

RedToothBrush

Young people are moving out.

I don't know anyone know at or about to leave university whose parents would encourage them to start a career in the SE if they could avoid it. It's just too expensive.

but i am looking and seeing all the variables and reasons for differences in prices.
for your earlier one u might not agree that bedrooms add value to you but factually they do when properties are valued and sold. the legalities behind lease lengths etc are also not things you see on adverts but make enormous differences on selling prices so you can't just look at rightmove and make accurate judgements. it's in imperfect tool for that use.

people dropping their asking prices is also not the same as showing the overall selling price still increasing over time. It just shows people asked for too much too soon.

Againfaster

But quite often it's the same houses being resold. Sometimes with the same pictures used!

So you can see it's not down to any differences in the property!

I found this article about people leaving economia.icaew.com/en/news/may-2018/concern-whether-london-can-keep-millennials

My brother plans too and lots of friends have. If it wasn’t for family I would defo do it but still may in the future.

qwerty fair enough if it is, I just haven't yet seen them recently anywhere near me or in those examples posted.

I am hoping it is different for your DC too . I am really lucky here, the school they went to was excellent. They really enjoyed their school years and made loads of friends. I think in 20 yrs we could be anywhere with the way the world is going. Sheer madness lol.

I haven't RTFT so apologies if this has been mentioned ...

What do people think about Brexit and the potential removal of passporting ...? The financial sector in London could be decimated leading to a further impact on the higher end price range. This will knock down the line, I'm sure.

Prices in my neck of the woods (south Manchester) are still rising. A house bought in 2014 for £350K is now "worth" £500K.

Why don’t you just post some examples of sold house prices in the last 2/3 years?

To Againfaster