To worry about the doomsday clock

[littlebillie]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35412454

It's just moved close to midnight

It's terrifying, and we should all be a great deal more terrified than we already are.

It's not just about the nuclear threat, but also about climate change.

Most of us can't do much in the short term about the nuclear threat (except vote for people who aren't sabre-rattlers, as this really isn't the time for sabre-rattling) but we can do something about climate change. Fly only once a year, if you holiday abroad. (I don't fly at all, at the moment, but I realise that's a big ask for a lot of people.) Leave your car at home from time to time. Get a veg box scheme (cuts out excessive waste, supports biodiversity). Write to the companies you love and ask them to make at least one small change now, and commit to making bigger changes. Most of all, vote for the people who take environmental responsibilities seriously.

We aren't talking a long timeline here. I'm sitting here at my desk, connected to the world, reasonably safe (apart from the nuclear war thing...) and with food in my cupboard and clean water in the tap. It's very very far from certain (it's very uncertain, unless we cat) that my DS at my age will have the same luxuries.

Its mainly scientists, with the best will in the world, they dont have insider knowledge of what is happening with world leaders and the conversations taking place behind closed doors. They can study reports, media articles etc and form an opinion to based the 'clock' timings on but it is just their opinion.

It's mainly people who do have an intimate, long-lasting, insider knowledge of what is happening with world leaders and behind closed doors. I used to know someone on the Bulletin board (they aren't there now - retired) and they really do know the real risks.

Now, if Trump starts manufacturing bomb shelters, thats the time to start worrying, it might be the end of the world but that bugger will still want to make a buck or two.

"Bomb Shelter Business Booms"

What a lovely cheeery thread to start the weekend.

I wonder if the experts who work out these things have considered the unlikeliness of Trump, Jong Un, Putin wanting to live in a post apocalyptic world where they couldn't enjoy their huge wealth. What would be the point, they know there would be no winners.

*No it isn't. The bible is just made up stories, the doomsday clock is a large panel of the experts in their field.

You don't understand it at all, clearly!*

I understand what the Doomsday clock represents probably more than you actually, thanks though . Those scientists can no more see into the future than religious leaders can. Yes it is a theoretically risk which is based on current events, tensions and world wide politics but it was at 2 minutes to midnight back in 1953 when the USA invented the Hydrogen Bomb. Yet here we are.

But please, do continue to spout your ignorant assumptions about what people know based on a single forum post

How many minutes to midnight is it btw?

Despite being reasonably intelligent, I've never really understood the Doomsday Clock. Seems a bit woolly. I get that informed people make the decisions and move the hand but it still seems a bit...playschool. To my mind.

When I was little, I thought that it moved independently and was somehow guided by it's own internal threat-ometer .

springtulip alas, major wars aren't always started for logical reasons. Trump has the attention span of a crazed toddler, a trigger-happy temper, and - crucially - has very few people around him who in any other administration would both know the issues, and be prepared to put a brake on his wilder impulses.

Anyway, the doonsday clock isn't just about nuclear war, but about climate change - and we do know that we are all merrily careering towards it, logic be damned, even though we know it's already altering the climate and we know many of us won't survive if it alters beyond a certain extent.

Oh, and it's currently two minutes to midnight. I don't think it's ever been closer than that, but I haven't checked.

It's absolutely pointless worrying about stuff like this. What does worrying achieve? Absolutely nothing.

Best to get on with living your life.

It's absolutely pointless worrying about stuff like this. What does worrying achieve? Absolutely nothing.

@SilverySurfer Imagine you are on a plane, and have flown into a storm. There's thunder, lightning, and the plane is shaking. You are all terrified.

The pilot isn't terrified, though. He's abandoned the controls, and is playing Candy Crush Soda on his phone to take his mind off the storm. You are horrified and ask him to pay attention to the controls, and at least try to land the plane safely. His reply: "It's absolutely pointless worrying about stuff like this. What does worrying achieve? Absolutely nothing."

I agree with that to a certain extent Archery, but all the major wars we've had have always been conventional, there have been many scenarios since the last big one when ww3 could easily have broken out.
It's only for the fact of "mutual assured destruction" that has stopped it from happening. So logic has definitely prevailed.
Wars have always been seen as a great way of culling the population, the thing about having nuclear weapons is the fact that unlike ever before, the elite would be affected this time.
Of course it could still happen, but it's this logic that hopefully prevents it.

youshall scientists absolutely know more about the future than religious leaders. Unless those religious leaders are primarily scientists, in which case they may know the same.

archery in that scenario I would imagine the pilot isn’t worried because he knows there is no risk. Or he wouldn’t have flown into the storm. If he was told to fly into the side of a building he might not be playing candy crush.

I think there is an element of 'subliminal' conditioning.

If we accept inevitability, then what other alternative is there?

I actually think those scientists are enjoying their 15 minutes of fame. I see no purpose in publishing it like this other than scaremongering.

Would worrying help you pilot the plane through the storm even though you can't fly a plane? Would worrying enable you to land the plane? Is worrying about the clock moving closer to 12 going to stop wars, terrorism, mad dictators, any other drama you can think of? No, of course it isn't.

I'm very philosophical about stuff like this and have chosen to just get on with my life. If a nuclear bomb is going to be dropped I want to be the bullseye - no interest in living in a post-apocalyptic world.

It is scary but the world has been scary for a while. Is it just me that’s been shitting myself at all the stories about a Russian attack?

I do think we’re in line for an attack of some sort but think it’s more likely to be a cyber attack than dropping bombs on us. It’ll cause more disruption that way imo.

But then I watched blackout about the cyber attack on the electric grid. That was freaky because it would cause havoc.

I worry about it because I am naive enough to try an see a way where my children and I survive. At the moment I think the current biggest threat is mass migration due to climate change. This could be in such huge numbers (considering the entire population of Cape Town will run out of water in 12 weeks) that it could cause armies to be overwhelmed and all sorts of horrible things don’t to stop migrants.

If that’s the case then perhaps we could survive for a bit? I would assume all imports/ exports would stop so good would be an issue. It’s no good stockpiling food because people would steal it.

Realistically I think if I build a secret underground fortress we could survive while everyone else dies. Then come out and declare ourselves royalty. But I don’t have a secret underground bunker. So I worry instead and try to think of other ways to live it out. I don’t say this out loud though or would would think I’m crazy.

Would worrying help you pilot the plane through the storm even though you can't fly a plane? Would worrying enable you to land the plane? Is worrying about the clock moving closer to 12 going to stop wars, terrorism, mad dictators, any other drama you can think of? No, of course it isn't.

But the pilot can fly the plane. We are the pilots of our own lives, and we need to pay attention, and put our hands back on the plane controls, not just play Candy Crush. The things that are now threatening us - war and climate change - are as a result of human activity. We've collectively chosen to do this. And the more of us who choose to act to improve matters, the more we've got a chance of landing the plane, and our children surviving past 40.

OK, so we can't at this moment do much about Trump, or North Korea. (If we were in America we could do something about Trump, however futile it seems at the moment.) But we can act on the climate change bit of the apocalypse, and I think it's our duty to try.

I see no purpose in publishing it like this other than scaremongering.

@DressAndGo the clock has changed because of climate change as well as the threat of nuclear war. The more people who are persuaded to see how serious it is, that we can't just piss away resources as we've been doing for the last century, the more likely it is that we can act in time to survive.

To swap my metaphors: if there's a bear coming up behind me, I'd like someone to scare me into getting out of it's way, as I don't want to be eaten. Having someone scare you into taking a credible threat seriously isn't scaremongering. Sometimes we need to be scared.

The big things that you worry about, hardly ever happen though. We get blindsided by the ramdom shit that we never saw coming.
The world has always had really nasty shit happening, punctuated by periods of calm - I think it's our nature. And most people are powerless to do anything about climate change etc. Sure, I could live the most perfect 'green' life but in the end that wont stop big business from polluting the world and whoever I vote for, it will be just the same.

And most people are powerless to do anything about climate change etc. Sure, I could live the most perfect 'green' life but in the end that wont stop big business from polluting the world and whoever I vote for, it will be just the same.

It's not just about living the most perfect green life (although that can't hurt - it's several billion of us NOT living the most perfect green life that has helped get us here, after all), it's about putting pressure on companies, and on governments, to create collective as well as personal change.

How do you imagine anything in human history has happened? Because people have made it happen. It won't happen overnight even if we really push for it - but if we don't push for it, it won't happen at all, and we genuinely, seriously, doom our own children.

scientists absolutely know more about the future than religious leaders. Unless those religious leaders are primarily scientists, in which case they may know the same.

True about the scientific community as a whole, but not necessarily individual scientists. Unless they work on relevant areas. Most scientists don't know more about the future than any person who watches the news or reads about things like climate modelling.

Prep for shit hitting the fan.
We may be lucky enough to miss it for a little while. Honestly I think we would be left to it and May & Co would be under Denver Airport

DressAndGo the clock has changed because of climate change as well as the threat of nuclear war. The more people who are persuaded to see how serious it is, that we can't just piss away resources as we've been doing for the last century, the more likely it is that we can act in time to survive.

I do get this, but when you think about how it's done, the fear and distress it causes, I'm left wondering about the true motive.

I mean, if we are so close to wwIII, what's the point looking after the climate anyway?

I'm sure it serves a purpose in its own way, but all I can see is it either causing fear and helplessness, or desensitisation.

All those people in the 'know'. Great. Either share your knowledge, or keep it sectret. Don't share sensationalism without explanation.

I'm struggling with a purpose to the knowledge.