To wonder wtf is going on in Wales?

[brexitstolemyfuture]

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-labour-poll-wales-yogov-majority-seats-first-time-century-a7699776.html%3famp

Tories predicted to get a majority for the first time in a century. I thought this was fake news, but no it's real

But surely part of the whole trade deal thing is that EU countries who currently sell their stuff to us do so under a system where we have the same tariffs as all the others. If that changes and we are now the only one with tariffs we become less attractive. They simply sell elsewhere in the EU. Maybe we do import more from the EU as a whole, but that's divided up among a bunch of countries. So maybe it's better for say, Germany, to simply lose 5% of their trade because the resulting tariffs make it not economically worth while. And for France to do the same, and for Italy to do the same, and suddenly that's all our imports, which across the EU are bigger than our exports so worth money as a whole, but no one country is taking the whole burden of that. Similarly, tariffs on a product might mean it's cheaper to source the same thing from Holland, or Austria. So we lose the export.

Did anyone see the thing from Norway about the fishing industry and how, largely through not joking the EU, they've lost something like 80% of their fishing industry? Exporting fresh fish gets one set of tariffs but exporting processed fish is way more expensive, the result is that all the processing is now in Denmark, as the fish is exported at the lower tariff rate. It's cost loads of jobs apparently. And also means that processed fish eaten in Norway is exported once to Denmark, and the imported back in at a cost. But still more viable than trying to process the fish in Norway and export it.

If people are going to invoke the spirit of the Blitz, they would do well to consider how people who actually experienced it and who actually fought in the last European war voted as soon as they got the opportunity.........

People see what they want to see with politics & policy.
Harold Wilson shut as many Welsh pits as Thatcher but, that very rarely seems to get mentioned. "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". Maybe some of the Welsh people have had enough of Labour.

Nye Bevan will be turning in his grave.....

Yup, then are, I agree. What terrifies me is that the next best option is seemingly Tory. We know what they are doing to benefits, to the NHS, we know where their ideas lie, and yet it is a better option than Labour? That is fucking scary!

The problem with labour - not just is Wales - everywhere is simple - Corbyn

"Oh FFS! You get so much funding from the E.U.? Do you? Do you realise we pay them more then they give us back?"

No, User, Wales is a net beneficiary. We get lots more back than we pay in. The UK govt has even admitted it might not make the same payments when we're out.
Unfortunately, the Welsh press is very weak and lots of Welsh people don't know facts like these because they're reading the Daily Mail etc.

In Wales, people are unhappy with the lack of investment in job creation and in the cuts that have lead to the closure and reduction of lots of public services. Labour get the blame for this as the WAG is Labour and many councils are Labour. However, that blaming also shows a complete lack of understanding on where the budget cuts originated from and that the WAG and local councils are working in a U.K. wide period of austerity and funding cuts and a under a UK government that believes in privatisation and market forces.

Maybe, just maybe people in Wales also feel things didn't improve when Westminster was Labour led either.

The referendum result was because the whole leave campaign gave voters scapegoats and somewhere to place blame.

Still turkeys voting for Christmas....but because politics is just understood well enough.

dismissing people as stupid is one on the reasons that we are in this mess.

This, a million times.. Looks like not a single thing has been learnt since the Brexit outcome!

BretrandRussell my mother grew up during the blitz and it was awful. Queuing for food.... They used to get food parcels from relatives in Ireland.
I recommend people read some of tge mass observation diaries.....or just remember what it was like in the 70s.
Food prices have gone up considerably. Butter in Lidl has gone from 88 p in August to £1.18. 35% increase.

GraceGrape: "Also, according to a report published by Cardiff University in May last year, Wales receives £245m more from the EU than it pays in, as opposed to the rest of the UK combined, which is a net contributor."

Yes, Wales has benefited massively from the EU. It would be nice to think that once the UK stops paying money into the EU, all that money saved will go on lovely projects supporting local businesses and regeneration, but I think we all know how that's going to work out, don't we?

If that changes and we are now the only one with tariffs we become less attractive. They simply sell elsewhere in the EU.

IF they could elsewhere in the EU, then they'd already being doing it wouldn't they? No sane business owners would limit their production if there was higher demand - you'd ramp it up, build new factories, etc to produce more to satisfy that demand.

Yes, Wales has benefited massively from the EU. It would be nice to think that once the UK stops paying money into the EU, all that money saved will go on lovely projects supporting local businesses and regeneration, but I think we all know how that's going to work out, don't we?

Perhaps the money spent will be less, but maybe it'll be spent more wisely on things that really matter and will really make a difference to the locals. When I look around, and see crazy statues, artwork in the middle of roundabouts, schools that look more like shopping malls, art galleries, I don't have to look far to see the EU flag. Perhaps once we've left the EU, some of the money could be spent on grants for things that will be far more useful, such as rural broadband, better public transport, better education especially in the trades, etc.

Typical arrogant English and Scottish who think they can tell the Welsh what to do!
We chose Brexit and we will go all the way. Labour are too leftist and think more of the foreign workers than the Welsh people.
Have any of you actually been to deprived areas of Wales? No I didn't think so.

Yes, Wales has benefited massively from the EU. It would be nice to think that once the UK stops paying money into the EU, all that money saved will go on lovely projects supporting local businesses and regeneration, but I think we all know how that's going to work out, don't we?

I have the same fears. Because I remember South Wales in the 1970s. When we joined the EU parts of Wales, including my town, were amongst some of the lowest status in Europe.

Regardless of the parties in power nationally and locally nothing was improved until EU money was poured in.

Parts of my town are unrecognisable now. But I think a lot of it is taken for granted.

EU money turned my village round from a scarily poor, high unemployment, empty place to a thriving community. I can't even imagine the amount of money per head the EU have given us and it didn't go on pretty statues it was invested in ways that have made us popular with tourists and provided local jobs and infrastructure. Yet 50% of the village voted Tory last time and I dare say that won't change much next month.

Poisonous, did you miss that I a) am Welsh b) am on benefits and c) live on a council estate

Am I qualified to comment?

If people are angry with the WAG, then change who you vote for in the WAG elections. Don't moan you don't like Corbyn and about all the immigants and then get rid of a labour mp who (in my areas case) has been doing a good job.
This is not an assembly election and we are not voting for the prime minister.

If that changes and we are now the only one with tariffs we become less attractive. They simply sell elsewhere in the EU.

Oh no. What will we do if the EU aren't selling to us any more? Perhaps we will start a supply chain - i.e. create jobs - in the UK instead.
I'm sure that future generations will look at us and wonder what the heck we were doing transporting goods all over the place. Vehicles criss-cross the border five times during the manufacturing process - that is insane and not very environmental.

Turkeys voting for Christmas

So bored of hearing this phrase

I live in North Wales and there are a lot of farmers in this region. Apparently, the majority of them vote Conservative. I'm not sure why but just wanted to throw that into the discussion. It's not just council estates in the valleys, Wales has all sorts of demographics. Actually, there's a lot of very rich people up here too, people with multi million pound properties in Abersoch, etc. I suppose they'd naturally vote Conservative too, a lot of them.

To become electable again the left needs to connect with these people and address their concerns rather than offering something they don't want then insulting them when they won't take it.

Exactly.

It's outstanding how any dissension from being grateful means you're 'a fucking idiot' etc according to the very people who purport to be caring & tolerant.

Oh no. What will we do if the EU aren't selling to us any more? Perhaps we will start a supply chain - i.e. create jobs - in the UK instead. I'm sure that future generations will look at us and wonder what the heck we were doing transporting goods all over the place. Vehicles criss-cross the border five times during the manufacturing process - that is insane and not very environmental.

Indeed. If the EU won't sell their stuff to us, we'll just make it ourselves and improve our economy, not there's!

As for the travel and border crossings, you're exactly right. Insane the amount of transport going on, not just the cost but the environmental impact of wastage of scarce resources and pollution.

On that subject, a classic example of insane EU regulations. New regulations were introduced about emissions from railway locomotives. Basically, new ones had to have low emissions after a certain cut off date. Unfortunately the UK had a large order of new locomotives, but their production was delayed so by the time they were finished and imported, the date would have passed and they'd have been illegal and unusable. So, to get around the new EU legislation, they were transported and imported into the UK in an unfinished state, so that they met the import date deadline, and then shipped back again to be finished, and then re-imported again and put into use. Just how much pollution was caused and resources were used for all that - all under the new "green" regulations!! You couldn't make it up!

PoisonousSmurf
I live in a "deprived" area of Wales. The only people I can ever seem to hire and retain are Eastern Europeans. I would say 70% of the locals we've had in turn up for interviews and then disappear. Most of the ones we've gone on to hire haven't lasted either because their work ethic has been appalling. So yes, EU workers may be "taking all the jobs" but there is a reason sometimes.

I've lived in the valleys all my life in Labour constituencies and on council estates. Unfortunately people read the Daily Mail and see Corbyn as a Communist, therefore they will vote Tory.

I am just speaking from personal experience of course.

When I worked for a temp agency, local temps weren't reliable at all. I'd say about 80% of our workers were Eastern European, because they didn't have an alternative. I will blame benefits not being flexible enough for temp working though rather than the people.

Anyone thinking the Conservatives will put money into Wales is living in Cloud cuckoo land.

When the economy stalls, investment won't going into Wales. Instead, funds will be diverted from Wales in the form of reduced investment in healthcare, reduced investment in education and reduced investment in benefits.

Instead, funds will be diverted towards the Tory heartlands to bolster the faltering economy by reducing corporation tax and protect them from the effects of reduced trade and a full-blown recession.

It's an absolute certainty the Conservatives will protect their own. MDMA "They would, wouldn't they"