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Original poster

To be shit scared about the French elections

239 replies

brexitstolemyfuture · 21/04/2017 20:27

Recent events could of given her a big boost, I'm getting pretty worried :(

Anyone in on the ground to reassure?

OP posts:
PoochSmooch · 25/04/2017 14:26

In my commune it was 31% for Mélenchon and 26% for Le Pen. With him now refusing to give his backing to either (AFAIK?), and saying that supporters should vote for whoever they feel like...I worry. That said, Macron polled 3rd even in my rural backwater, so I think many will vote for him in the second round.

I dread to think what would happen if MLP got in. We'd have to consider leaving - not as a sort of sulky Depardieu flounce, but just because it would make life so difficult. I don't want to fight to be here, and I think it would just feel like another obstacle when we already feel insecure about being Brexit Bargaining Chips...

So...go Macron!

Motheroffourdragons · 25/04/2017 15:24

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Namechanger2017 · 25/04/2017 15:43

Sadly, it looks like most of the foreign press are getting sidetracked by Macron's marriage!

Pariswhenitdrizzles · 25/04/2017 16:44

Haha that's true Name 😂 I wondered actually if that would put voters off Macron? Especially the fact that his wife used to be his teacher.

I wonder if traditional and conservative voters - who might otherwise have voted for Fillon - might be put off from voting for Macron and if they may be swayed towards voting Le Pen instead.

greenworm · 25/04/2017 17:53

I highly doubt it, the French are much less concerned about their politicians' private lives than British people are.

Sarasue1967 · 25/04/2017 20:19

Omg someone let the nethuns in Shock

greenworm · 27/04/2017 08:13

Polls holding more or less steady so far: Macron hovering above 60%, Le Pen just below 40% as of yesterday's figures.

Le Pen really does seem to be pulling out all the stops, what with stepping down from the FN leadership and then the factory stunt yesterday, but I'd expect to see the polls start to move a bit more in her favour around now if she's going to have a real chance.

To be shit scared about the French elections
Pariswhenitdrizzles · 27/04/2017 08:44

green I couldn't believe it yesterday when I heard that she'd gone to the same factory as Macron on purpose! Shock As you say, she really is pulling out all of the stops! I too wonder whether it'll go in her favour or not though.

Last night I was rewatching one of the presidential debates on YouTube, and I was really impressed with Mélenchon. Macron was quietly nodding to most things he'd said Smile

greenworm · 04/05/2017 07:04

Just to note polls still at 60/40 in Macrons favour in terms of intentions to vote.

I think the number of abstentions is going to be sky high though. Anecdotally I know of so many people who aren't going to vote at all as they feel Macron represents all that is wrong with capitalism, free markets etc. I have read his programme multiple times and still feel in agreement with most of it. I don't understand enough about global economics to know whether there is even an alternative to the current system or how it could be brought about. But France is still really, really far from being the USA, even under Macron's programme. I guess it's fear of the slippery slope...

user1492679224 · 04/05/2017 07:41

If Marine Le Penn does not win then France will be governed by Merkel.

greenworm · 04/05/2017 07:59

If Le Pen wins France will be governed by Le Pen FFS.

PamplemousseRouge · 04/05/2017 08:36

greenworm I agree with you about the abstentions or spoiled ballots.

I feel that Le Pen's supporters, in particular, will be much more likely to come out and vote, which will certainly be in her favour. I also think that there will be at least a few 'shy' Front National voters, which may suggest that although it's now 60% in favour of Macron and 40% in favour of Le Pen, she may in fact have a higher turnout of support on Sunday during the actual voting.

greenworm · 04/05/2017 08:52

The 60/40 figures are based on people who say they will definitely vote though.

I think if the gap gets much narrower before Sunday more people will reluctantly turn out to vote for Macron. I can't really believe that so many abstainers would genuinely be prepared to see Le Pen as President, I think they just know they can keep their hands clean and principles in tact by abstaining because Macron has the lead even without them. That's the only way I can get my head around it anyway.

PamplemousseRouge · 04/05/2017 08:59

Ah okay, that makes sense - that's a good way of conducting a poll. I agree about the abstainers - as you say, we could understand their reasons, but I'm surprised that they're not planning on doing anything 'proactive' (ie. voting) to keep out Le Pen.

Original poster
brexitstolemyfuture · 04/05/2017 09:01

Some polls have it at 45 / 55! That is getting too close to call...

OP posts:
greenworm · 04/05/2017 09:13

Which ones brexitstole?

www.linternaute.com/actualite/politique/1357555-presidentielle-2017-resultat-du-dernier-sondage-le-debat-deja-lance-2eme-tour/

This round up of polls from yesterday suggests lowest figures are 59/41- or do you mean with the 5% margin of error it could be 55/45?

Original poster
brexitstolemyfuture · 04/05/2017 09:19

Ian Collins on LBC was saying it, but I cant find his source. But he wouldn't of said that without a reliable source. Maybe it's good if they are close as more people will vote macron?

OP posts:
ComingUpTrumps · 06/05/2017 22:12

It was reported last night that 9 gigabytes of data from Macron's election campaign have been leaked.

Obviously, it's still unclear what the outcome will be of the leak. I still don't think it will have a particularly negative effect on him though, because it's now right at the end of his campaign (yesterday was the last day of campaigning for him and Le Pen due to French parliamentary rules about pre-election campaigning). In fact, I read in a Guadian article today that the leaks might persuade people who would otherwise have abstained to actually go out and cast a vote.

What does everyone else think? It'll be interesting to hear your thoughts!

PerkingFaintly · 06/05/2017 23:45

Same technique as the US elections: dramatically publish a mass of material just before the election - with dire hints of some scandalous revelation.

By the time people have picked through and realised there's nothing new or bad, or half of it's fake, the election is done and dusted.

I'd guess we have the same to look forward to for the UK General Election. Oh joy.Hmm

Terfing · 06/05/2017 23:55

And a pro-Macron politician has died on stage! Shock

ComingUpTrumps · 07/05/2017 00:19

What do you mean Terfing? Do you have any sources?

PerkingFaintly · 07/05/2017 00:20

Shock Blimey!

Nothing on the BBC as yet. Hope that turns out to be untrue (regardless of political party).

Terfing · 07/05/2017 00:22

It's all over Twitter, but only a few news sources are reporting it.

Connie Erhel, French mp, died whilst campaigning for Macron. I'm on my phone, so can't link, but Sky News are reporting it.

ComingUpTrumps · 07/05/2017 00:26

Just Googled her name, and nothing about her on Google anywhere. Nothing on French newspaper websites or UK ones either. Fake news in action? Hmm

ComingUpTrumps · 07/05/2017 00:27

Ooh just re-read your post and saw your comment about Sky News - sorry! Blush