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Original poster

To be shit scared about the French elections

239 replies

brexitstolemyfuture · 21/04/2017 20:27

Recent events could of given her a big boost, I'm getting pretty worried :(

Anyone in on the ground to reassure?

OP posts:
greenworm · 22/04/2017 08:34

She could well get into the second round.

However all the polls show that she would be roundly beaten by whoever she was up against in the second round. By such huge amounts that it's outside the margin of error, unlike the polls re Trump/Brexit which in the days before the votes were much narrower and therefore not outside the margin of error.

Booboostwo · 22/04/2017 08:39

I'm in France and I'm shitting it. Nightmare scenario is a LePen win, second worse a Melenchon win. Both would be catastrophic for Europe - DH and I are seriously thinking of giving up and moving to Asia. Macron will have difficulties governing but at least he won't implode the country and the continent.

With my luck it will be a hands down LePen victory.

greenworm · 22/04/2017 08:40

And FWIW I think Fillon is going to clinch it. I think there are huge swathes of 60+ voters who simply don't have any other choice but to forgive Fillon his scandal and vote for him. People who'd never vote Melonchon or Le Pen, and who think Macron is too young and inexperienced. It's significant that up to 30% of the electorate is polling as undecided, surely these people are more likely to ultimately go to Fillon than any of the others - they're just reluctant to forgive.

Personally I'm rooting for Macron. But his momentum seems to be dropping away...

Original poster
brexitstolemyfuture · 22/04/2017 20:05

I wouldn't trust anything the polls say, as much as people say it's different this time...It really isnt

OP posts:
LordRothermereBlackshirtCunt · 22/04/2017 20:13

There's a big difference between the narrow margins in the opinion polls prior to Brexit and Trump, and the gap in the second round opinions polls - the latter is huge. I agree with greenworm that there's likely to be a shy Fillon vote that could take him into the second round.

honeyfull · 22/04/2017 20:30

Worst case scenario is Le Pen and Melanchon going through to the second round.

I can't see that happening, although Trump is the POTUS now. wink.

Fillon and Le Pen is my bet with Fillon winning. The arrogant money grabbing sod.

Livelovebehappy · 22/04/2017 20:31

I too think she might make it through the first round, but not the second. Even so, it should be a bit of a wake up call. Not too many years ago, she would never have stood a chance of coming close, but I think an increasing number of people are very concerned about recent events.

Booboostwo · 22/04/2017 20:59

A few months ago I went to sleep and woke up to Brexit, then I dosed off and it was President Trump, I'm staying up all night just to make sure this time!

Original poster
brexitstolemyfuture · 22/04/2017 23:07

Is it worth staying up for this first round? Anyone know the timings and will BBC news be covering it?

OP posts:
Original poster
brexitstolemyfuture · 22/04/2017 23:07

Is it worth staying up for this first round? Anyone know the timings and will BBC news be covering it?

OP posts:
DrDreReturns · 22/04/2017 23:10

Le Pen will get through to the second round, but she won't win the second round imo.
I think the same thing happened about a decade ago.

Terfer · 22/04/2017 23:17

None of them seem like good choices tbf!

I can understand the turmoil of the French voters though. I would not go to France atm, the anxiety would be too high for me. I hate seeing armed guards! Sad

CheeseQueen · 22/04/2017 23:22

Could of... Is you're French as good as you're English?

Flippin' 'eck, if you're going to dodge the question and slag off grammar, check your own's perfect first.... Grin
Your, not you're.

greenworm · 22/04/2017 23:25

There have been gendarmerie patrolling about with guns as long as I've lived in France, before any of the attacks.

Have encountered a fair few undecided voters here in the last few days, who have said they have no clue who to vote for. I was surprised by some of them as they are young, liberal professionals and I'd have assumed Macron would be the obvious choice. But it seems there is concern even within this demographic about his ability to get anything done in office given he has no party behind him, and whether he actually has a clear vision for France or just says whatever he thinks will upset the most people the least.

greenworm · 23/04/2017 00:03

...also I think that Macron is not left enough for a lot of people who would normally vote Socialist. So maybe more of the undecided 30% than I originally thought could be leftists wondering whether they should stay loyal to PS and waste their vote on Hamon, or bring themselves to go either further left to Mélenchon or further right to Macron...

I don't know what to think any more!

greenworm · 23/04/2017 00:06

Is it worth staying up for this first round? Anyone know the timings

Result is expected early - 8pm French time, one hour after polling stations close.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 23/04/2017 00:11

French people I know are expecting her to make it to the second round possibly against Fillon. They view is that they will have to vote for Fillon in the second round no matter how much they despise him because she is worse.

spinassienne · 23/04/2017 07:23

Greenworm that is exactly DH's situation. He's voting JLM. As are an awful lot of other people according to FB.

CasperGutman · 23/04/2017 07:29

I wish our General Election had a second round, so Anyone Else could have a one-on-one crack at May!

Firstaidnovice · 23/04/2017 07:32

Here's the thing for all the "no way it could be Le Pen" people. It's very hard to poll accurately when you're in uncharted waters, because polling relies on past patterns. It is well within statistical possibility that you get a Le Pen V Melenchon final round, then all bets are off.

Frazzled2207 · 23/04/2017 07:48

Apparently results won't be particularly late -8/9pm according to bbc. Bbc news channel is probably best bet for it.

InvisibleKittenAttack · 23/04/2017 07:51

My fear is people who support Le Pen are ashamed of it so polls are out, that a big chunk of that 30% "don't know" do know, but are embarrassed to say.

I do hope I'm wrong for everyone's sake.

Original poster
brexitstolemyfuture · 23/04/2017 07:52

Oh wow, that's almost too quick for results. They must be electronic. Nervous.

OP posts:
Motheroffourdragons · 23/04/2017 07:54

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

spinassienne · 23/04/2017 07:55

Tbh I don't think the Le Pen vote is particularly shy. I've had random mumsin the playground telling me they're voting for her.

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