To be shit scared about the French elections

[brexitstolemyfuture]

Recent events could of given her a big boost, I'm getting pretty worried :(

Anyone in on the ground to reassure?

It's disgraceful that a fascist has even made it to the second round. I won't sleep well until it's all over and I am sure she won't be president.

No, everyone's been saying she had an excellent chance of going through the first round since last year.

Why do people think Macron is a sure fire win? I don't know the French system so don't understand why MLP has no chance in the second round.

Id like to know this too, what Superbeagle asked, why is Macron the dead cert?

The silent majority strike again. Third time lucky!

Just had a look at Melenchon's Facebook page, many of his supporters saying they will vote blanc. Some saying they'll vote against Le Pen, but quite a few saying they'll vote for her as well.

I'm also wondering this - perhaps because Macron is pro-European, so he'll appeal to French voters who don't want to leave the EU (one of Le Pen's policies is to look into leaving the EU). Also because Macron now has the support of François Fillon from Les Républicains, as well as from the other parties (the Socialist party and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party La France Insoumise), and it's generally believed that Le Pen's party the Front National won't have a parliamentary majority in the legislative elections in June.

Because of those who voted, 55% odd didn't vote for either finalist. All those voters now have to choose between them and all the candidates who have dropped out have called for their voters to vote for macron.

I think (hope) Marcon will wipe the floor with Le Pen because all the people who voted for other people in round 1 will now vote for Marcon to prevent Le Pen from getting in. (Fingers crossed!).

Sorry Macron not Marcon!

Fillon's supporters will support Macron now. I'm appalled that Le Pen got through. Was looking for this thread a minute ago.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4437156/Leading-candidates-cast-votes-French-election.html?ito=social-facebook

From about 5 minutes ago :

France's interior ministry says with 20 million votes counted, Marine Le Pen has 24.38%, ahead of Emmanuel Macron on 22.19%. François Fillon has 19.63% and Jean-Luc Mélechon 18.09%. That would represent about half the vote, but will not include the main cities.

Of those 55%, 20% odd are right-wing (fillon), 30% left to far left (mélenchon and hamon). Some of the former might vote for her but almost all of the latter will vote against.

The far left and the far right actually have quite a lot in common. They're not really polarised extremes of a spectrum. There will be Melenchon supporters who agree with Le Pen's protectionist, anti-globalisation policies.

I was more talking about last election, people only changed their tune on her a year or so ago.

How many times recently has something unpresidented happened?

I wouldn't rule out le pen winning at all. Lots can happen in two weeks.

Tonight's opinion poll has Macron at 62% in the second round.

That's not a clear winner at all.

Very interesting.

I don't have a horse in this race, but I think Macron says it all when he says that the French people have had enough of the recent status quo and that's why they kicked the major parties to the curb.

Interesting times indeed.

Agree completely mother and Booboostwo. On holocaust remembrance day to have an anti semitic fascist giving a victory speech was chilling.
Hoping all other parties can unite round Macron and win.

Fillon (and Hamon for what it's worth) have already implored their voters to vote for Macron in the second round. Melenchon is sure to do the same. Of course some of them won't obey and will vote for Le Pen, but I don't think most would.

In terms of polling for Le Pen / Macron second round, since the start of the year no poll has shown Macron losing, the lowest margin being 58/42, the highest being 67/33 ( www.linternaute.com/actualite/politique/1377067-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-derniers-sondages-sur-le-resultat-du-deuxieme-tour/ ).

This article ( www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/07/polls-us-election-accuracy-margin-error-clinton-trump ) from the Guardian, the day before the US election shows that the polls were saying 47/44 Clinton/Trump going into the vote (rest being other candidates).

This article ( www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html ) from the Independent shows that the day before the Brexit vote, polls were varying from 55/45 to 51/49 in favour of Remain.

If the polls in the next two weeks start to show Macron dipping down to 55 or below I'll start to worry. Well, actually I'll probably worry a little bit anyway because I can't not. But because of the way the French system works, it's not like the US election. There's no reason to think that the majority of people who voted for Fillon or Melenchon in the first round are going to vote for Le Pen in the second round, against the wishes of their first choice candidate.

It's the same as trump and Brexit. Are 22% of all French voters really vile right wing fascists? No. Sure, some of them will be. But I think most of them will just be utterly fucked off and disenfranchised and looking for something different to the status quo.

Politicians all over the western world really need to sit up and start listening to all these warning signs IMO

I just do not think that the 19% who voted for Fillon are mainly disenfranchised people looking to upset the status quo. There is every reason to think the majority of them will vote for Macron in the second round. Melenchon's voters are maybe more unpredictable...

Actually another danger could be people not voting at all.