To be shit scared about the French elections

[brexitstolemyfuture]

Recent events could of given her a big boost, I'm getting pretty worried :(

Anyone in on the ground to reassure?

There's a lot of posters on here saying "my French friend says she won't get in bla bla.." so who the fuck is voting for her then?

MLP being president feels like a political time bomb ticking away - some of the policies I have heard appear to be deliberate ways of pissing off and radicalising french minorities. Macron on the other hand looks like he escaped from a Lego movie. If he starts singing "everyone is awesome", the EU is doomed.

I dont know a lot, as i said before, but to my own mind this is a kind of French referendum on the EU being partly played out here. Macron has the full support of other countries that are in the EU - ( i have heard him being described as a 'poster boy' for them) and MLP is all for withdrawal, going back to the franc- as well as her parties other policies.
I read today also that she had 'stepped down' as their leader, which seemed a bit odd - I thought then that Macron would be the winner, but a quick read today and it just means that she can concentrate on the next round or something.
On the more flippant side i was curious about Macron's wife ( the age gap is 24 years) but she looked awesome for 63 i thought.

Leaving the EU would be a way bigger deal for France than the UK because it would mean going from the euro to the Franc, most people with any money/assets are not prepared to put it all at massive economic risk in such a transition.

green, this will sway it then surely? I must admit, i didnt think of that aspect at all ( as the UK still has its own currency)

The French electing la pen would be brilliant for britain. It would crash the EU which would help us out of a tight spot

There's a lot of posters on here saying "my French friend says she won't get in bla bla.." so who the fuck is voting for her then?

Confirmation bias: French people who've emigrated to the UK tend to be the upwardly mobile middle classes, not her core retired / rural constituency.

Rather than stepping down, she's taken leave of absence from the FN leadership. Stepping down is a mistranslation that suggests it's permanent.

There's a map here in this Le Figaro article showing where the votes for the main parties were, if you scroll down to where it says "à 02:05": www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/23/35003-20170423LIVWWW00149-resultats-elu-election-presidentielle-macron-le-pen-melenchon-fillon.php.

on, all of this has made me wonder - some of our politicians are rather hoping that will be the case? Whoever gets in over here have a huge problem with Brexit ( although they wont admit it ) and If MLP does ( somehow) secure a victory, all the emphasis will then be on them and France and the whole thing could then just come to a natural end? Its just a thought. It would cause an huge headache for every one, but would, as you say, get a lot of people out a hole over here. I cannot see it happening.

Also during the Brexit thing, out of my whole family, friends, hundreds of Facebook friends, I only knew two who were pro Brexit, quite a few neutral but the vast majority were very pro remain like me. The result really made me realise that we're all in our little bubbles which aren't reflective of the population as a whole. Same story here, it means nothing that 'most people my French friend knows are anti Le Pen' - I live here and don't know any Le Pen voters at all (at least not admitted ones) but one out of five people in my town voted for her, as did France as a whole.

green, so you have the 'shy' National front voters as was the problem with 'shy' Tories in the last election. It would be good to know if the French are as anti EU as the Uk - i really do not know their feelings about that, but i imagine they are more pro than anti.
Or maybe this election is more about other policies, not just the EU. I need to read up more i suppose, but its been interesting following the bits i have.

Well if you look at how people in the election voted more than 40% voted for anti EU candidates in Le Pen and Melenchon (I'm not sure about some of the less well known candidates) that would suggest that at the very least a significant minority of French people have misgivings about it. Macron will win the run off and wont ever allow a referendum though.

No, this is why the EU are backing Macron, he can see the turmoil that the Uk is in with all of this and a referendum will not be on the cards at all. Is MLP offering a referendum, or would it just be policy to pull out when they can and go back to having the franc? If so, she is still in danger of pissing off a lot of people who want to remain - france would become the same as us then too! Its all very rocky.

I thought MLP was offering on leaving the EURO www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38511058

So, not leave the EU, just have their own currency.

I thinks so yes, although in practice an FN government couldn't really be in the EU full stop as their also against freedom of movement and would do a fair amount of fairly draconian stuff , deporting people on the watch list who have dual nationality ect.

Juncker is breaking the rules by endorsing Macron. Someone should rap his knuckles for him.

No no to Hun and hunny please this is mumsnet not the other place.

I guess that the EU is also crossing its fingers that Macron gets in - one up for them and then its all worse for the Uk too.

Oh god The80s I never really thought about 'shy' Front National voters it makes so much sense. (I always thought they'd be vocal about who they're voting for stereotype, but now I think about it, I understand that they'd be reluctant to publicly say who they were voting for).

The more I think about it, the more difficult it seems to predict whether Macron or Le Pen will win, as they've both got factors in favour as well as against them. Also, surely the fact that France has been the target of so many terrorist attacks for the past two years will make people vote for Le Pen, as she's extremely clear on how she'll deal with terrorism, whereas Macron isn't so firm? Whilst I would never vote for Le Pen, I understand that protection against terrorism is a huge issue in this election, and I understand why people would be attracted towards a candidate who focuses on fighting against terrorism.

I know that it's unlikely that Le Pen will be president and to actually govern the country, as previous posters have pointed out. This is partly because she'll need her party to have quite a few seats, but then Macron's representing a 'movement' (rather than a party) which is completely new, and so he doesn't have anyone from En Marche! in government at the moment to guarantee success in the legislative elections.

What does everyone think?

*factors in their favour

Sadly, the left have learnt nothing from Brexit/Trump and are shouting all sorts of names at the right-wing. Haven't we learned that this tactic doesn't work?!? It just creates shy voters, too scared to debate their real opinions. Check out today's Guardian, there are at least 3 opinion pieces about Le Pin being a racist fascist, yet the most upvoted comments are supporting her!

I am informed Mother that Juncker is breaking the Council of Europe convention of 1971 to do with 'meddling' in members' internal affairs.