To be shit scared about the French elections

[brexitstolemyfuture]

Recent events could of given her a big boost, I'm getting pretty worried :(

Anyone in on the ground to reassure?

At least three posters who don't think you should worry about the democratic election of a far-right, anti-Semite in Europe...

Guess they didn't pay much attention to history in school.

I think if Le Pen doesn't win this election, she'll win the next. I can't see any of the candidates managing to implement any kind of serious reforms that are supposed to be needed. And next time round she might have the parliament behind her.

Well I'm not saying don't worry about it, just that it is still unlikely (I'd even say very unlikely) that she will become President. I wouldn't totally rule it out though, and that's worrying enough.

Hi everyone, the BBC News Channel is running an election night special from 6.30pm UK time until late tonight. Polls close at 7pm French time in most of the country (6pm UK) and 8pm French time in Paris and some other big cities.
As soon as the polls close the media will report the exit polls, so expect those at 7pm UK/8pm French time.

Turnout figures will be published at 12 noon and 5pm local, so 11am and 4pm BST. Low turnout is seen as being good for Le Pen, as her supporters say they are most likely to vote, according to pollsters.
Some overseas territories have already started voting and turnout is lower than 2012 so far.
Who else will be watching? I'm a political geek and Francophile so watching with interest

Guardian said the queue for French expats in Montreal to vote was 2km long, indicating high turnout...

Turnout for American French territories:
Martinique: 34.82% (Source Le Monde, Prefecture Martinique)
· French Guyana : 37.31% (Le Monde, RFI)
· Wallis and Futuna : 49,15% - -8 points (AFP)
· New Caledonia: 19.86% (AFP – rate at 1200 local time)

That looks low, is it?

That would be the first signs of bad news...

Does Montreal count as an overseas territory? So is it good or bad that there is high turnout? I'm on edge already

Montreal is part of Canada so not an overseas territory but French expats vote where they live, there's an MP for the overseas vote. Anecdotally, our polling station was busy at quarter to nine when DH went along.

The polls are open an hour longer thanpreviously and any two of the final four could make it through, so I wouldn't expect the 8 o'clock result to be as reliable as usual.

Montreal isn't an overseas territory, so voters there are casting their vote as French ex-pats. Low turnout overall is seen as good for Le Pen, as her supporters tell pollsters they are most likely to definitely vote, compared with those for other candidates.

Agreed about the 8pm prediction. Polls will only just have closed in Paris, Marseilles and the other grandes villes.

This isn't exactly cheering - although these days Twitter is actually trying to deal with automated accounts.

French social media awash with fake news stories from sources ‘exposed to Russian influence’ ahead of presidential election
An Oxford University study found a quarter of the political stories shared on Twitter were based on misinformation
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-voters-deluge-fake-news-stories-facebook-twitter-russian-influence-days-before-election-a7696506.html

The rise of the far right is of course concerning

I don't believe from what I have read she will win but coming second is also very concerning as the more far right wing voters you have the more that policy shall be influenced

Many people are going to vote blanc ie go and vote, but for nobody, as a protest but unfortunately that plays straight into the hands of the extremists. Choosing between Le Pen and Mélenchon is like choosing between plague and cholera. Many people will still vote Fillon because he has experience and they see Macron as an opportunist with none. Hamon is too weak, even his own party don't support him, people may vote Arthaud or Poutou as a protest in the first round but that also plays straight into the hands of Le Pen and Mélenchon because their supporters wouldn't dream of a frivolous vote. Asselineau Dupont-Aignan Lassalle and Cheminade will have a few people voting for them but that is likely to weaken any candidate but the extremes. I think Fillon is likely to get through but I am voting for Macron and really hope he gets through. Obviously if the next round is Fillon vs Le Pen I shall have to vote Fillon but I won't be happy about it.

Doesn't the FN only have 2 seats in the national assembly, out of 580 approx? So even if she does win how much legislation will she actually get passed through parliament?

Well there are still the parliamentary elections to come, and one of her pledges is to reduce the number of MPs to 300 which could up her influence.

Also you could say the same of Macron and Mélenchon...They don't have parties behind them in parliament to push legislation through. Though could maybe expect more allies than Le Pen.

Thanks for that.

I wouldn't be worried about Twitter fake stuff, that site isn't used much thesedays.

Looks like turnout in Paris is about the same as 2012 so far

So we will know who's going head-to-head by the end of today?

On a side note, has France ever had a female president?

No, no female president (and let's hope there won't be one this time around!). They had a female PM, Edith Cresson.

Belgian press is reporting Macron first" MLP second, based on 5pm exit polls.

Also terrified Brexit we are not so far from a town who has front national mayor. Posters for Marine, and also 'frexit' all over town...