I don't doubt that the Tories would have gone to war.
The question, for me, isn't 'does that one bad thing I did negate all the good things?' It's a fair question: had Blair's years been wonderful and then just that little issue of the war been the boil on the backside of 1997-2007 that would be one thing.
Very reductively however, there is a pattern of Blair's government we could sum up with It Seemed A Good Idea At The Time But.
It seemed a good idea to open the doors to Eastern Europe: we get cheap labour, they get to work out of poverty, what's not to like?
It led to dense population in some areas which also had a knock on effect on public services and also on people's tolerance and global outlook. It led to house prices rocketing out of control. It led to a split down the middle between those who benefited from the mass migration and those who did not. And one side does not listen to the other.
It seemed a great idea to encourage more young people, especially those from working class backgrounds, to go to university.
It led to the degree being devalued, the scrapping of the grant, university fees and debt. The degree is now so inflated as to be practically meaningless in some subjects and from some HE placements.
It seemed a good idea to introduce tax credits. Encourage people to work, get some help towards childcare and related costs - better than them not working at all and so what's not to like?
In reality, it was really state control and redistribution of money. Others have I know already made this point: the taxpayer is subsidising businesses. That's all fine and good in boom years but then things crash and wages aren't going up but the government can't afford to keep subsidising businesses through tax credits.
In addition, the TCs actually take away incentive and to an extent responsibility - people are often caught between the devil and the deep blue sea of wanting more hours and to up their income but being unable to. There's also growing resentment (although it has simmered down) between the benefit claimants and the non benefit claimants. The system became ever more bloated and more complex, and cuts were made when individuals were desperately reliant on them and now we have UC which people seem worried about.
It seemed a good idea to fling money at things with outwardly noble sentiments such as Connexions, supported living, EMA, Sure Start. In practice (I'm sure some will tell me I'm wrong) a lot of money was spent without very much to show at the end of it. I worked in supported living in the Blair years. Ha. Kids would trash their rooms and WE were sent on courses on how to deal with 'real poverty.'
Anyway I've wittered enough :) The point is I think the Blair years follow a pattern and he war, whether it was originally well intentioned or not, is a part of that.