I mentioned previously that Yonatan Zunger, whose article "Trial Balloon for a Coup" has been much linked here, has written another article "What 'Things Going Wrong' Can Look Like".
It's about who he sees as the target groups of the Trump regime: muslims, latinos, black, and trans people (though I suspect the same will be brought to bear on LGB as well).
He explains why each group would be chosen - different for each - and how they would be targetted.
For black people, it basically comes down to same old same old.
For trans people,
Direct pressure against the trans community is also likely to follow a schedule of political expediency; since, unlike Latinos or Muslims, trans folk aren’t a particular target of the campaign, they’ll instead be targeted whenever it’s useful, e.g. to rouse up support from the sort of nasty evangelicals who do see them as particular targets when they’re needed for either a political campaign or to back some other thing.
The detailed rumours about the anti-LGBT EO (now rumoured shelved) fitted that mould. (Of course, the rumours might be false top to bottom, so not really much to go on there.)