to ask for some actual facts about how shit things are going to be?

[milkyface]

Can someone please tell me exactly what's going to happen in the next year, 10 years, 20 years?

I mean please someone tell me EXACTLY how shit things are going to be.

I must be missing something because everyone seems to know exactly what position we're all going to be in in 1, 5, 10, 20 year plus, and I don't.

How can we be certain on what will happen when we haven't even left yet?

I think that things will be shit, think 1970's 3 day week sort of shit. However, I voted leave as I believe that the overall plan is to create a European superstate that will be the end of democracy for its members. The common market we joined is nothing like the EU that we now belong to. In 50 years time the EU will no longer resemble anything we know today. If countries leave, others will join and it will keep going relentlessly.

Cote D'Azur - I do campaign for a raise in minimum wage as it is an issue which is very important to me.

And I also voted to remain,

However I refuse to accept this is the end of the world and am trying to look on the bright side.

"Can someone please tell me exactly what's going to happen in the next year, 10 years, 20 years?"

Nobody even knows what's happening tomorrow because people voted leave based on no facts, no plans, no nothing in place to deal with what happened if the vote went their way.

Now if it had been a remain then no, nobody could tell you what might happen in the future in a magical psychic way, but today and tomorrow would be very much like last week or the week before.

So because uncertainty is always bad in terms of economics and politics, it's pretty much a given that this will mean things are going to be worse.

Change is more likely with a leave vote though than a remain one.

Assuming you're talking to me and discussing immigration, how?

There is actually a very real possibility that the 'change' you mention will be something you probably consider negative because of the Leave vote. If we have to agree free movement as the price of access to the single market, which all the other non-EU members have (without the transitional provisions we had) in the future this may well include more cheap labour. The EU could become more expansionist without British influence! Basically, leaving might mean more cheap foreign labour. This is before we even start on the Dublin Regulations.

So with that in mind, I'd like to hear how change, ie reduction in immigration, is going to be more likely outside the EU.

Loads of Leave voters are behaving like the OP. I reckon they're feeling guilty. They should have asked all the 'what is likely to happen' questions before.

I've skimmed, in a big rush. I haven't seen anyone explain Gibraltar to milky. Could someone talk about blockades, necessity of free movement, what their lives are like on that rock, an financial market reliant on being a part of the common market. My heart absolutely goes out to them. Well and truly fucked. 'Great' Britain, my arse. There's nothing 'Great' about selfishly destroying livelihoods and ways of life. All those people who complain about the 'Little England', that is quite literally where you are headed. Diminished, without Scotland and Gibraltor and possibly NI.

"Diminished, without Scotland and Gibraltor and possibly NI."

Possibly even worse than that for Northern Ireland, there's every possibility that they've just destabilised the peace in Ireland.

Oh yes, cakey. I suddenly remembered Gibralter last night, which sobered me up immediately and made me cry again

I suppose it's a relatively minor shit thing, but as a film fan I'm depressed that there is going to be a negative effect on the British film industry and on the actors. There is already a negative effect.

It's not coincidence that there are so many Brit actors and actresses about at the moment. There was a huge amount of investment in the UK film industry, a big chunk of it from the EU. There are also hefty tax breaks for films that are made here. The likes of Game of Thrones get some financial funding from the EU. And not only is it made very attractive for Americans to film here and in Europe, but our EU status also meant that UK actors didn't need expensive (and time consuming to acquire) work visas. And most US film companies keep their European offices in the UK and they may make plans to leave now.

There are already rumours that some projects have lost their funding. Expect that there will be far fewer Brits in Hollywood once current projects are completed. Britain and British actors are not going to be very attractive to the movie industry for a good while.

I'm also concerned that the Northern Ireland political situation could flare up again. All the ingredients are still there especially when EU support is removed.

I accept that we are most probably going to go into recession but having already been through it I am confident that it is 'survivable'

I'm sure that people who are about to lose their jobs, homes, businesses etc will take great comfort from your confidence.

georgette i totally agree DH and i both voted Remain. (ive talked about my stance on other threads) DH is 66 and has a small private pension which started paying out last year after months of having to fight for them to actually pay it

he is worried that they may stop paying it.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36537906?post_id=10153236587290887_10153638795460887#=

That BBC piece should really please many MNers. It suggests that the nasty older home owners will lose money and first time buyers will be in with a shout... lower interest rates and lower house prices!

And lots of other interesting ideas!

From the BBC piece above: Both Easyjet and Ryanair have argued that flights will become more expensive, as a result of more restrictive aviation rules. But IAG, the owner of British Airways, has said a UK exit from the EU would not affect its business.

From yesterdays' FT: International Consolidated Airlines Group, the owner of British Airways, Iberia and Vueling, has downgraded its earnings growth forecast for this year in the wake of weaker trading ahead of the referendum, and expected volatility after the referendum.
The airline group, which topped forecasts yet again in the first quarter, said it “experienced a weaker than expected trading environment” in the run up to the referendum during June.
IAG shares plunged as much as 33.7 per cent at the open this morning, and are now down 20 per cent, their biggest ever one-day drop by a long way, while the broader FTSE 100 is off 5.5 per cent.

I think that BBC piece is overly optimistic. Nobody wants to shout fire because talking down the economy can become a self fulfilling prophesy. Unfortunately, talking it up is unlikely to protect us from what I think will be some very unpleasant effects for very many people. Like everything, clouds for some will have silver linings for others, but unless our government negotiate, like Norway, to keep the status quo and we are EU members in all but name (in which case we have gained nothing by the process and damaged our economy with the uncertainty as well as losing our seat at the table for decision making) I can't see any way we can avoid some very tough economic times when the big financial services jobs relocate to the EU.

I'm sure that people who are about to lose their jobs, homes, businesses etc will take great comfort from your confidence.

Oh I am sorry - should I just straight out say oh that's shit it's all gonna be shit everything's shit - is that more comforting?

Is it?

Boner I agree that the chances are immigration will probably not change in the short term and free movement might be part of the deal especially under a conservative government there will be a lot of pressure to keep cheap labour I know. And things might not change. I was not convinced enough to vote leave, but now it's happened I think we do have an opportunity to lobby the government to sort some of these issues out. I know the tories will push for policies I don't agree with however if that is the case then the 'spin' is completely different. People cannot argue 'we are doing this because the EU makes us' and it might give us a change to vote in a (hopefully more convincing) Labour Party who might be able to genuinely help 'unskilled' or lower paid workers.

Here's hoping eh!

It could be a disaster but I'm going to try and look on the bright side

It's not the government you're going to have to lobby to get us access to the single market without allowing free movement of workers, I'm afraid. At least, not the British government.

Also, of course people will be arguing that we're doing X because the EU makes us, because we'll still be influenced by EU policies. If this had been a vote to do away with the EU entirely, that would be one thing, but as long as it exists we are going to be impacted by it. No getting round that.

I want to know where the hell Ian Duncan Smith, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are.

It's their responsibility to calm down the very genuine fears that people have and tell us how they plan to move us out of Europe.

What do you mean, they don't know?!

"I refuse to accept this is the end of the world"

Not the end of the world but the beginning of grave economic and political troubles for the UK. There will still be a world. You lot just won't be terribly happy on it going forward.

"and am trying to look on the bright side"

Admirable. Hold onto that thought in the next couple of years.

Considering that the Bank of England has just opened its war chest to the tune of 250bn in order to prevent complete market chaos and collapse of the sterling - I wouldn't say it's good!

@milkyface...you were the one that posed the question, so no point in getting shirty when all the vast majority of people who seem to understand macro economics and the financial markets are telling you that things are likely to be horrific for a great many people. Listening to these points IN ADVANCE of the vote is why I and 48% of the electorate voted to remain.
@Tanith is right - the Tories who are interested in taking over leadership really need to chuck their hats in the ring and start delivering some clarity about their vision for what happens next. Are we going to negotiate to remain unofficial members with all the same T&C's like Norway or are we going to go it alone? If the latter, what's the plan for financial services and any other sectors that will be packing up to leave? Is Scotland going to devolve? The worst possible thing that can happen is for the current uncertainty to continue for months. It was an appallingly stupid gamble by Cameron to put this to a referendum, and the campaign to remain was pathetic at best, but that's done now and can't be undone. It's time to face the music, but nothing can happen until we know which direction our new leader wants to take, so in the meantime everything from research programmes, planned house purchases/extensions, inward investment etc. all stagnate. People will be more cautious about spending, they may put off holidays they would otherwise have taken, and every one of those decisions impacts on our economy. You are right. Nobody knows anything for sure. There could be some other Global disaster tomorrow which renders this irrelevant, but the balance of probability is many. many people are facing into very difficult times, and in a very possible worst case scenario, yes, it all could be shit. We might literally have voted to bankrupt ourselves and people may have to get used to a much reduced standard of living.

I shouldn't have started this thread because clearly there is only one correct opinion and that's remain isn't it?

I guess I am just an uneducated racist piece of shit who has ruined our country and is now even getting told that I shouldn't be trying to think positive.

I've had enough I really have.

If it all goes to shit then fair enough you'll all have been right.

I won't be replying again because there is absolutely no fucking point.

In fact I wish I'd never voted or had an opinion because then I couldn't be 'help accountable' for what may or may not happened.

You're right though I don't think it should have gone to referendum either.

*held