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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to still have no clue which way to vote on Thursday?

172 replies

DowntonIsMyHome · 20/06/2016 23:37

I've looked at the BBC referendum check thing to try to get through the spin but it hasn't helped much

I'm a single parent at uni doing a post grad that will end next year, then I will qualify. I have a council house and barely made ends meet before quitting work to do the course

not sure if any of that means I should lean towards in or out but my whole family are 'out', citing life as 'better' before the EU and immigration as their reasons (I don't have the same view re immigration as they do, though)

argh.... the deadline is hurtling towards me and I ain't got a clue!

OP posts:
Everytimeref · 22/06/2016 08:24

Gove has said he would resign if country votes remain. Thats my vote firmly secured in the remain camp!

BoxofSnails · 22/06/2016 08:25

I've posted this elsewhere but this article by JK Rowling mobile.jkrowling.com/en_GB/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum on the spread of Nationalism and the role of the "Politics of Fury" is really very apt.
I dread waking up on Friday and it being a vote to leave. Our quality of life will fall for a long time - not just financially but the government will become progressively right wing and our rights at work and as women will be under threat.

Brokenbiscuit · 22/06/2016 08:33

Box, that's a very good article. Thanks for posting.

Topseyt · 22/06/2016 08:37

Remain.

Leave is a vote for uncertainty and economic mayhem.

It seems to me that a large number of those voting Leave are harking back to some "golden era" from the 1950s & 1960s. That "golden era" never existed and the world is a very different place now to what it was back then.

I will despair if we wake up to a Leave result on Friday.

So many young people want to stay. Can Leavers really not see that as those young people are the leaders of tomorrow then in years to come we will be likely to be asking to rejoin the EU, and the terms we would get would be nowhere near as favourable as we currently have.

I wish this stupid referendum had never been called and hope that if Remain win then we never get another in/out one.

Littlemisslovesspiders · 22/06/2016 09:14

If the younger voters want to vote remain then they have that chance to do so.

The younger voters however are also the ones that historically don't vote.

Ailicece · 22/06/2016 09:27

Can anyone explain why trading with another country/bloc means signing up to their rules about anything? Surely individual importers/exporters can buy and sell to each other without restrictive trade deals?

In terms of the rules and regulations: anyone who wants to sell ANYTHING to the EU has to sign up to their rules, period. No choice about it, it's a legal requirement. But of course currently we get a say in how those rules are made, and are often able to change them. A good example here: Hugh Fearnley-Whitingstall fish fight. He managed to mobilise campaigners around the world, but it was the British MEPs who spear-headed the debate in Brussels and WON.

It's the same with selling to other countries outside the EU by the way. Japan for example impose incredibly strict rules and high tariffs on anyone wanting to sell anything there. Others are less extreme, but all impose rules and import tariffs. The UK would have to negotiate its own deals with pretty much everyone, and in today's climate I doubt we'd get as favourable terms as say Switzerland, who has had various trade agreements in place for decades.

Import duties are a huge reason why free trade within the EU is so important. I'll try to explain from the point of view of someone running a small business, selling goods online. We're based in the UK as are the majority of our customers, but a significant portion of our sales goes to the EU, and all around the world.

Customers in Norway and Switzerland have to pay import duties on purchases from the EU, above a certain amount (I believe the limit is less than £100), same as customers in say the US or Russia. An item that costs a customer in the UK or rest of the EU £100 ends up costing a Norwegian customer £125. This is despite all the trade agreements between Norway and the EU. Norwegian consumers don't benefit from free trade to the same extent as within the EU. Same with customers in Switzerland. We are often asked if we could send parcels to these countries as "a private gift" which would of course be fraud.

As a result, it's much harder for a small business like ours to sell to these countries. Everything is also MUCH more expensive in both Norway and Switzerland. I've been to both countries.

If Brexit happens then my little business will almost certainly lose a large portion of our EU customers, as import duties will simply make it too unattractive to purchase goods from the UK. It would be a double whammy, because we'd also risk having to pay import duties on the goods that we buy in from EU manufacturers, meaning that our prices would increase even to UK customers. This is why isolationism causes inflation.

If Brexit happens, then the little business that I've built up, and which employs 3 people besides myself (all mums working flexible hours, two with no other source of family income) would have to fold. I'm lucky that DH earns a good salary so we'll be ok, but I'd feel very bad for the others. I've worked very hard over a number of years to build something worthwhile (although I only take a minimum wage from it myself) but I just don't see how we could keep going after Brexit.

mollie123 · 22/06/2016 09:43

Gove has said he would resign if country votes remain. Thats my vote firmly secured in the remain camp!
on the basis this is not a joke
Biscuit

  • you are making a mockery of a very important democratic vote and looking slightly ridiculous and naive at the same time
Ailicece · 22/06/2016 10:12

For people who think that the UK financial services would be just fine after Brexit, I think they would be in for a nasty surprise. The Service sector is by far our most important economic sector now that manufacturing has all but disappeared and accounts for a staggering 78% of the UK's GDP. This entire sector would be under threat. The EU have refused to include the service sector in their agreements with Switzerland and others.

I've often heard Leavers say "look at Swiss banks". In fact, they're a good example of why the UK needs to stay in the EU. Swiss banks have been trying and failing for years to get direct access to the EU financial markets. This is why so many of the Swiss banks have large operations in London, which hugely benefits the UK (jobs, taxes, influence). If Brexit happens, then both domestic and foreign banks would have to shift major parts of their operations across the Channel, probably mostly to Paris, in order to keep access to the single market. This would be the end of the City as we know it. It would be a devastating blow to the UK economy, affecting everyone, not just rich City types.

This article by Hugo Dixon (a Remainer, so not unbiased but very well informed) explains the Swiss situation really well: Swiss Option?

The Swiss government has itself acknowledged the drawback: “The existing barriers to market access place Switzerland at an economic disadvantage… Swiss financial intermediaries can only expand their EU business by way of subsidiaries in the EU, which means that Switzerland loses out in terms of jobs, value creation and tax receipts.”

And
The idea that Switzerland doesn’t have to follow EU rules is also misleading. It doesn’t have to adopt the social legislation. But in general it does have to adopt the same or equivalent product regulations – and it gets no vote on what those rules are. There is also no dispute mechanism so, if it gets into a fight with the EU over whether its companies have been fairly treated, there’s nothing it can do. The Swiss government has commented that it is “generally necessary to adopt developments of relevant EU law” to keep regulation equivalent.

And:
Switzerland is also required to allow immigration from the EU. Economically, this benefits Switzerland just as it does Britain. But for those who want to stop EU immigration, the Swiss option isn’t a good one.

I strongly recommend everyone to read the entire article.

t4gnut · 22/06/2016 10:17

If Gove goes that's a massive bonus! If I wasn't voting remain already that one item alone would have got me.

(The teachers loathe and detest him and he caused so much damage whilst in education being continued by his clueless puppet Nicky Morgan. Now he's undoing all the mess Grayling caused (another brexiter) over in justice - legal profession think he's a liability too)

Auti · 22/06/2016 10:28
Millyonthefloss2 · 22/06/2016 10:31

If Brexit happens then my little business will almost certainly lose a large portion of our EU customers, as import duties will simply make it too unattractive to purchase goods from the UK.

I understand your concerns. I also run an export business and most of my customers are in the EU.

But the trade barriers you fear will not happen. As everyone is bored of hearing - the Germans sell more to us than we sell to them - they will not put tariffs in the way of their sales and risk jobs in their country. A German industrialist said as much on the Today programme this morning.

We will go on trading with the EU just the same whether we leave or remain.

The economist Ruth Lea was on radio 4 womens hour this morning apparently talking about this and making a lot of sense.

Ohnowattsthis · 22/06/2016 10:32

When In doubt turn to the wisdom of bugsy...

We could've been anything
That we wanted to be
And it's not too late to change
I'd be delighted to give it some thought
May-be you'll agree that we really ought
Two, three, four

We could've been anything
That we wanted to be
Yes, that decision was ours
It's been decided we're weaker divided
Let friendship double up our powers
We could've been anything
That we wanted to be
And I'm not saying that we should
But if we try it, we'd learn to abide it
We could be the best at bein' good guys

You give a little love
And it all comes back to you
(Da da da ra da da da)
You know you gonna be remembered
For the things you say and do
(Da da da ra da da da)
You give a little love
Andit all comes back to you
(Da da da ra da da da)
You know you gonna be remembered
For the things you say and do
(Da da da ra da da da)
(Repeat and fade)u

Babysafari · 22/06/2016 10:50

I'll be honest I really don't know either. I watched question time in and out and I watched that debate last night.

Same old topics, both sides saying complete opposite about the same things. They didn't really touch in a lot of things. As usual it's just turned into a circus.

I'm worried about TTIP, I'm worried about the likes of Serbia joining. I'm worried about the NHS.

I'm worried about the economy if we leave, I don't trust a Tory government.

I actually think Jeremy Corbyn on sky news seemed to speak the most sense and explain things without mud slinging. He says there are implications either way.

slug · 22/06/2016 11:51

As i told a lady holding a Leave sign at Charing Cross this morning...

If we leave, my job will go within the next year. We already have letters written ready to send out if there's a leave decision. This is true of my entire industry, the sense of panic is palpable. We are looking down the barrel of a gun.

Whatever the other arguments are, ultimately I have to vote to save my job.

slug · 22/06/2016 11:52

Dear God!! Who thought London's village idiot, Toby Young was a good ambassador for anything?

TheGnomeMobile1 · 22/06/2016 12:27

If you don't know which way to vote, vote remain. We will still have the option to get out at any point in the future, but once out, we won't be able to get back in.

t4gnut · 22/06/2016 12:35

*I understand your concerns. I also run an export business and most of my customers are in the EU.

But the trade barriers you fear will not happen. As everyone is bored of hearing - the Germans sell more to us than we sell to them - they will not put tariffs in the way of their sales and risk jobs in their country. A German industrialist said as much on the Today programme this morning.

We will go on trading with the EU just the same whether we leave or remain.

The economist Ruth Lea was on radio 4 womens hour this morning apparently talking about this and making a lot of sense.*

if we were that suicidal to leave the Germans would just be one market out of 28 from the EU. Maybe they wouldn't introduce tariffs, but perhaps they'd feel like giving a little protection to their brewing industry. But what of the French. or Italians. Or Polish. What of all the other countries in the world with whom we have no EU brokered arrangement?

This economic approach is akin to finding a strange lump and thinking 'no I won't bother the doctor - I'm sure it'll be fine'.

ThisPanCanCan · 22/06/2016 13:01

I'd think UNLESS you are 100% sure of how things WILL be if we vote leave, then we don't vote to leave. It's such a decision that it requires convincing, authentic and crystal clear assurances across numerous aspects. The Leavers can't produce these and are frankly "making stuff up" to fill in the blanks.

Babysafari · 22/06/2016 13:18

I don't think anyone can be 100% sure what will happen if we leave.

Would the government have called the referendum if they believed that the country would irreparably fall apart upon leaving?

Btw I don't buy all the crap from the leave campaign about immigration, millions to fund the NHS either. I actually think most of the campaigning has been about skimming over issues that we probably won't notice any difference on either way.

The whole things a farce because you're average joe bloggs can't make a truly informed decision. The amount of idiots on tv I've seen basing their vote on immigration.

wasonthelist · 22/06/2016 13:21

It's such a decision that it requires convincing, authentic and crystal clear assurances across numerous aspects. The Leavers can't produce these

On the basis that if anyone could produce these, we wouldn't need to make any decisions because we could all foretell the future with near 100% accuracy and guarantees, your argument is redundant. You'd be more convincing if you said "I fear the changes that I imagine will come from Brexit more than I fear the changes that will occur if we remain" - because NOTHING is guaranteed in either course.

wasonthelist · 22/06/2016 13:22

Would the government have called the referendum if they believed that the country would irreparably fall apart upon leaving?

The government wouldn't have called it at all if they though there was any chance of a Leave vote.

Girlwithnotattoos · 22/06/2016 13:25

For me it's about the risks to the economy if we were to leave. If the economy nosedives we will all feel the consequences.

There's an awful lot of misinformation flying around about the benefits of EU membership especially around the fictitious £350 million a week it's alleged to cost (it doesn't but that's not my point so bear with me).

Both Brexit and Remain are agreed that there will be an economic shock if Leave win, but they disagree on the degree of the shock to come. If the economic shock was a mere 0.4% slowdown of the economy the the fictitious £350million saving is instantly wiped away in lost revenues, taxes and increased benefit payments to those who will lose their jobs, so nothing extra for the NHS, farmers, Wales, etc etc.

However the predictions are that the economy would slow down by between 1.4% and 6% so massively outstripping the so called benefit of leaving.

You don't need to be an economist to see that with a cost to Britain of this magnitude is going to cripple us and leave many thousands jobless. But not to worry Boris has offered to apologise when it happens so that's all ok Sad

I've still seen no plan on how Britain is to deal with the consequences of leaving just a gung-ho attitude of Blitz spirit coupled with gritting our teeth hoping for the best. Well it isn't good enough there's too much at stake to gamble it away so that's why I'm voting IN tomorrow.

Babysafari · 22/06/2016 13:30

There will be a plan if we are to leave but the government aren't telling us because they want us to stay.

There will no doubt be problems if we leave but there might be benefits much, much longer term.

I sound as though I'm arguing to leave, I'm not, I just don't think our votes should be based on fear if you believe there are wider problems of being in the eu.

HollyGoeslightly · 22/06/2016 13:33

Lots of wildlife areas near me are protected by EU legislation. Remove that and hey presto, huge new housing developments all over the countryside.No thank.s

And what do you think will happen if we Remain? England will need to build a home every six minutes to cope with demand caused by mass immigration, that is what will happen. Do you think that will help protect the wildlife?

wasonthelist · 22/06/2016 13:35

Why do people assume all worker's rights would be swept away outside the EU, when most of them are long-standing and were introduced before we even joined the EU? It is an extremely short-termist view and it isn't likely.

Governments have tended to piss around with unfair dismissal rules (again these don't accrue from the EU) - any government trying to remove maternity leave/pay we currently have would find it political suicide.