To ask how Brexit would affect immigration?

[Bearbehind]

It scares me that, as a nation, we have to vote in the EU referendum as there doesn't seem to be any impartial informative advice on which to base a decision.

I think I've made my mind up based on a number of factors but, as far as I can see, the question of immigration will be make or break for many people.

I'm not sure leaving the EU will result in us being able to control immigration much better than we do now but I'm the first to admit I know very little about it.

Will it really change much?

Team Boris have done a superb job on planting the idea that freedom of movement in the EU is "out of control." Contrast that with figures showing the majority of arrivals to UK are from outside EU, that the traffic is 2 way etc. I think those expecting a sharp fall in net migration to the UK several years after Brexit will be very disappointed. Furthermore I think they'll be bloody furious when they twig that the £350 million magic money pot that will be freed on Brexit won't make much difference to their access to schools, NHS etc. All of these things are fucked due to complicated, intractable problems and years of under investment & incompetence at a planning level.

Those falling for the right wing rhetoric about taking back control are going to an angry mob when they realise they've been sold a pup. Good luck with that Boris.

Although the knackered economy might well deter future immigrants from bothering to make the journey.

People are still missing the point here. This issue is a real case of not seeing the wood for the trees.

Currently we have no say over EU immigration. If you vote Remain you are voting for our borders to be open to EU citizens forever. The only possible chance of changing this, and regaining the powers to decide how many people come, is if you vote Leave.

Whether or not you trust our politicians or think the majority of voters will choose to change immigration policy is neither here nor there. If we Leave we will at least have the power back in our hands to decide what we will.

All of these things are fucked due to complicated, intractable problems and years of under investment & incompetence at a planning level

Look, even Labour admits it made a mistake by not keeping work restrictions in place in 2000 and ?.

They predicted about 13, 000 people MAY come here.

So, in 2000's our hospitals were not in a great shape, ( despite how many years of labour government????) and there was a chronic shortage of midwives.

So, 13,000 didn't come, the figures are now in the millions.

Do you think that was helpful, to an already ailing NHS? When you see charts and tables showing a boom in birth rate, change in tables of most spoken foreign language etc you think they are made up?I am not uber reliant on stats myself but as a guide - they are there.

If you run a ranshackle broken hotel with x many beds, do you advertise it everywhere to cram hundreds of people in?

I suppose you could, and from the money you get slowly start to improve it, but what happens to the people already in and suffering in the ram shackle hotel? is it fair to them, to advertise and get more people in, with mattresses on the floor, no facilities etc?

NO>

Currently we have no say over EU immigration. If you vote Remain you are voting for our borders to be open to EU citizens forever. The only possible chance of changing this, and regaining the powers to decide how many people come, is if you vote Leave

YY Scatter.

Its an illustration isnt it, of how we have no power and no say in our own country.

I am surprised that so many people want to restrict immigration, and yet to retire in their 60s (whether that's in 20 or 40 or 60 years' time). Quite how their pensions are going to be paid without immigration is puzzling to me, particularly as many of them also seem to have strong antipathy to the idea families receiving state handouts to help them afford more children.

(I am not, in any way, a big fan of the EU, though I will probably vote remain through clenched teeth because I regard the whole way that the Brexit argument has been set up as worryingly proto-fascist and therefore - ironically - unBritish).

Immigrants (from the EU or elsewhere) who work cash in hand without paying national insurance or for less than the minimum wage do hurt the UK. Knowingly working cash in hand without paying national insurance should be made a criminal office. Any immigrant who isn't an ayslum seeker should be sent back to their respective country and barred from working in the UK for five years.

The UK does not have the power to bar EU citizens who have taken on casual work in the UK for less than the minimum wage or who have failed to declare earnings.

Lots of cleaners or builder's labourers are deemed to be "self employed" as a way that employers can get around paying the minimum wage or national insurance or have employment rights.

I am not sure that that the way around this problem is to leave the EU. We need to tighten up employment law to stop casual work on building sites, self employed cleaners cleaning the same offices every day.

While it is true that people who work on the black market don't pay all the tax they should, they do benefit the economy. They have to buy stuff, on which there might be VAT. Staff will have to be paid to enable retailers to sell them their stuff, and these people will pay PAYE, and the retailer will pay corporation tax on its profits.

So, yes, they should pay more tax, but they don't contribute nothing, either.

I'm still swithering. Brexit needn't stop immigration - we would just be more able to decide. Labour were saying a reason we should stay in the EU is to protect workers rights. But, surely labour could have put those laws in place when they were in power if the EU didn't and if a Conservative party is voted in and removes them well isn't that democracy? It would leave a lot of unhappy workers who would vote labour the next time. The numbers both sides quote seem have more to do with propaganda than with fact.

blaeberry - that, for me, is an enormous weakness of the short-sighted way this campaign has been run. Instead of fighting it in terms of facts and principles over a longer timeframe, both sides are focused on the next general election and both (including Labour) seem to be assuming a Tory victory.

The whole campaign on both sides, as far as I can see, is centred on 'what will be done to us' in the event of a certain outcome, and not in the slightest on the question of 'what we, the people, can decide to do'. It's weird that a moment of CHOICE for the British people is being framed in this very passive way that assumes the thinnest veneer of democracy and a very substantial governing elite.

People who work on the black market under cut those who work honestly. Why would an employer pay the minimum wage if they can get someone to work for £4 per hour. Someone who works on the black market hurt the ecomony because they take away a job that should paid at minimum wage. It also makes it harder for an honest business because they have to pay more in wages, safety equipment, insurance, tax etc. Black market work is often very dangerous, especially on a building site.

I feel that both those who choose to take black market jobs and employers who break the law should be punished to act as deterrant.

Op immigration is one of Brexits trump cards.

I know- that was the whole point of my thread but no one has yet made a valid case for it being so IMO.

It being a trump card would suggest immigration would radically change therefore it is worthy of being a key deciding factor in how to vote and I just can't see that that is the case.

Where I work is within 3 miles of some of the most deprived wards in England (used to be top of national table for deprivation, but lately more like 10th+ percentile for wealth... in bottom 1% for education levels).

These places, and worst areas of Birkenhead, were very deprived before Bulgaria & Romania joined EU. And will continue to be poor whether or not UK Brexits.

I'm really struggling to know how to vote. I'm probably more for out but in the event of Brexit, it's a real possibility that DH's employer would move to an EU country or to their HQ in the USA. For that alone I'll probably vote in, I know DH is. I'm not thrilled about it though.

While it is true that people who work on the black market don't pay all the tax they should, they do benefit the economy

No. They live in often horrible conditions, very cheaply and their sole aim is to save and send money home.
They do not splurge in local shops at all. Our local shop has under the counter Polish goods, fags and beer etc, so not even tax paid there.

bear it seems your mind is made up. For millions of people who think immigration is an issue, for all its reasons, - the fact that "we" the UK cant do a damn thing to control it whilst in the EU are voting out.

Its pretty obvious, there is nothing we can do whilst in, there is certainly something we can do whilst out.

point of my thread but no one has yet made a valid case for it being so IMO.

Not sure what you are expecting. The only certainty is our inability to stem EU immigration at all without Brexit. No-one can make any further assertions that aren't just opinion because we cannot know what would happen. You appear to be looking for something that isn't there.

Likj did you read Frank Fields Blog piece on it?

I don't think you understand the point here.

Things are very bad for poor people, there is very little to go round at the bottom. So why add more poor people from other countries to the mix?
Its a bizarre logic.

But there's a massive difference between what we 'could' do and what we actually 'would' if we voted to leave.

The reality seems to be that, even though we 'could' reduce EU immigration it is very likely not to happen for many of the reasons highlighted above.

I feel that both those who choose to take black market jobs and employers who break the law should be punished to act as deterrant.

They are now. What more do you want ?

The idea that immigrants are, by definition, poorly off is questionable. I know many people who are migrants and they are highly paid academics and doctors. I don't know how representative this is of wider society (maybe someone else can help there).

I agree that things are bad for those who are poorest. I'd be interested to hear someone prove with data that this is a consequence of immigration and not widening inequality caused by the rich getting richer.

I feel that stronger employment law is needed to combat poor working conditions and zero hour contracts.

I feel that the only way to secure this is to remain within the EU. Frankly I think that the encouragement of these working practices simply to get people off the live register has just contributed to an immigration issue.

The reality seems to be that, even though we 'could' reduce EU immigration it is very likely not to happen for many of the reasons highlighted above.

No, that's not reality, that is an opinion of what might (not) happen. If you set out to find others who share your opinion, you will find them but that isn't unbiased. Just to take one example, if we voted for Brexit, according to many on the remain side, our economy would be trashed - and no doubt that in itself would reduce immigration (and probably encourage emmigration) without the need for any new laws. But whether that would happen is just one more bit of opinion and supposition.

My understanding is that leaving the EU will actually have no effect whatsoever for the foreseeable future in terms of immigration law.

Penalties for black market working are severe in France, including jail - in or out of the EU we could tighten up if we wanted to - but we don't.