AIBU to ask if Lord Owen is right about TTIP?

[SpringingIntoAction]

Is former Labour Minister and SDP politician, Lord David Owen right to think that TTIP will be detrimental to the NHS?

www.theguardian.com/society/2016/apr/06/brexit-is-necessary-to-protect-nhs-from-ttip-says-david-owen

There may well be a few GFs on the thread but there is only one that thinks everyone on the Brexit side is beneath them and her intellectual inferior.

A real nasty piece of work.

Just because you keep saying you 'won' the internet argument doesn't mean you have. The same way we can't 'win' a MN thread.

Ridiculous.

Lumela: "Does anyone know what % of EU migrants return home? "

About 69,000 people from the EU 8 arrived here last year and about 29,000 went home.

Net migration has been broadly in line with this since 2010. So about 42% of those that come in each year go back home.

Must have been a bargain house cut in Central London for £250,000, I've not seen houses priced like that even in zone 6 for donkeys years.

Oh and the comment regarding someone being "intellectually superior" I do hope that isn't aimed at me whilst there has been an awful lots of nastiness from the other side here.

Cut, your anecdotal experience is broadly linked with the OUMO info that says single young people who don't usually use services (and therefore mainly a net fiscal benefit which is validated by the factcheck website) and the "migration
bounce" information shows that lots do go home.

Lumela, the points about population and climate control are world issues, not TTIP may impact climate change, but I'm not sure leaving the EU would help with population issues, I think it would be the other way round.

Here are the Government's own migration figures published by the Office for National Statistics Feb 2016.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/february2016

IMMIGRATION INTO THE UK

In the year ending (YE) September 2015:

Net long-term international migration = +323,000 (up 31,000 from YE September 2014).

Immigration = 617,000 (up 2,000 from YE September 2014).

Emigration = 294,000 (down 29,000 from YE September 2014).

In the year ending (YE) September 2015:

Net migration of EU citizens was estimated to be 172,000 (compared with 158,000 in YE September 2014; change not statistically significant). Non-EU net migration (191,000) was similar to the previous year (188,000).

The estimate of immigration for EU citizens was 257,000, compared with 246,000 in YE September 2014. Whilst this was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in immigration of EU2 citizens to 55,000 in YE September 2015 (up 15,000). Conversely, immigration of non-EU citizens saw a decrease from 289,000 to 273,000 (not statistically significant).

Of the 290,000 people who immigrated for work in YE September 2015 (up 25,000; not statistically significant), 59% (170,000) had a definite job to go to. 165,000 EU citizens came to the UK for work-related reasons. Of these, 96,000 (58%) came for a definite job and 69,000 (42%) came looking for work.

Of all EU2 citizens who came to the UK in YE September 2015, 45,000 (87%) came for work-related reasons, a statistically significant increase of 18,000 from YE September 2014. Around two-thirds (28,000) arrived with a definite job to go to, a statistically significant increase of 17,000 from YE September 2014.

Latest employment statistics from the Labour Force Survey show estimated employment of EU nationals (excluding British) living in the UK was 2.0 million in October to December 2015, 215,000 higher than the same quarter last year. Non-EU nationals in employment increased by 38,000 to 1.2 million and the total number of British nationals in employment increased by 278,000 to 28.3 million. Therefore, nearly half of the growth in employment over the last year was accounted for by foreign nationals. (These growth figures represent the NET change in the number of people in employment, not the proportion of new jobs that have been filled by non-UK workers.)

EMIGRATION FROM THE UK

British citizens
British citizens accounted for 43% of emigrants in YE September 2015 (127,000). Emigration of British citizens has remained at around the same level since 2009, having fallen from the peak of 207,000 in 2006 (Figure 12).

EU citizens
The estimated number of EU citizens emigrating from the UK was 85,000 in YE September 2015, similar to the estimated number of EU citizens who emigrated in YE September 2014 (87,000). The latest estimates show that emigration among the various EU citizenship groups has remained stable over the last few years.

Half of non-British emigration was accounted for by EU citizens, with 54% of EU emigrants leaving for work-related reasons.

Non-EU citizens
The latest estimates show the number of non-EU citizens emigrating from the UK in YE September 2015 was 82,000, a statistically significant decrease from 101,000, driven by a statistically significant decrease in emigration by citizens of Asia (from 62,000 to 50,000).

Of the non-EU emigrants, 61% were of Asian citizenship and accounted for around a third of all non-British emigration; 72% of non-EU emigrants were emigrating for work-related reasons.

This is a list of the populations of towns and cities in England to give an indication of the scale of migration movements.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_localities_in_England_by_population

The house was not in central London but in Greater London, Zone 5 to be precise, high immigrant area. Rundown, virtually unaltered since 1935. I was trying to convey that from my observations Polish men esp. - for as long as it suits them financially - do remain in the UK. And for as long as they can, they do work off the cards.

When it becomes sensible to become visible - such as settling down and having a child - they register on the electoral roll, take PAYE jobs and all the benefits that may bring, such as paid holidays, working tax credits, child benefits, housing benefits. There are loads of opportunities if you know where to look and Poles are very sorted. There is no reason for them to return to Poland for years and years, and once they start to have children they will acquire council accommodation.

Thank you for stats, both above.

Lurked, does your source have figures for all the EU or only EU8 (struggling to learn the jargon here, sorry if I get anything wrong)?

Could you explain why leaving the EU would not help with population issues within the UK? Obviously there is a limit to what can do as regards the world as a whole, other than funding family planning (which I believe as a country we already do, via foreign aid).

I was trying to convey that from my observations Polish men esp. - for as long as it suits them financially - do remain in the UK. And for as long as they can, they do work off the cards

We have had a mix round here but seems high density of Eastern European Males, living in lodgings, very cheaply, working off radar, cash in hand, pay rent on a week by week basis ( certainly no tenancy agreements). Very pleasant to nod and acknowledged in the road but on going issues with drunken violence, ambulances on seemingly weekly basis, police involvement and anti social issues.

Then families, normal working parents, and some elderly Polish folk who seem to help out enormously with the childcare. Just a snap shot of my area.

One must remember that Labour had no way of counting the new arrivals they invited to come here, so we must take all stats and figures with a Large dose of salts.

We have experience of far far higher numbers of people living in small terraced housing, a five room house for instance with every room a bedroom, no living area, can house several people per room. The landlord can get away with a slum, one toilet of course, meaning urinating anywhere and everywhere, rubbish, noise, social issues from a house meant to house a family....but its dirt cheap lodgings, short term, week by week basis.

Nice to see the Green Party has its own Leave group 'Green Leaves'.

So a very very broad 'Lexit' group on one side, Cameron fan-boys the other.

But we are all Little Englanders.......

I stumbled across this thread a day ago and have read from page 1. I recently departed another thread which had a lot of Open Borders people pretending not to be OB, and some of you sound exactly like them. A few giveaways from the Remainers who I believe are also OB/NB, such as gratuitous nastiness and condescension towards an opposing view. You are either youngish smartasses who put theory above observation and have no fucking idea how to debate, or you are the No Borders contingent passing yourselves of as legitimate Remainers.

If it's the latter, you are doing yourselves no favours. I am currently undecided so I will have to find my information elsewhere. One ridiculous thing I have read on here is that EU migration 'gives' the UK money in the form of taxes. Sure, but with the other hand more money is handed back to that so-called contributor in the form of credits - a bolloxsy name if there ever was one. What I have seen here are posters who are scornful of people's observations and experience. It is true that many areas of England continue to be on red alert in their maternity wards, it is true that GP and hospital appts have a longer waiting time, ditto operations. All this is to do with an increased population which increased far too fast for infrastructure to be added to. Some of you have even denied this connection, which again is a tactic of the NB crowd, i.e. never mind the facts, never mind what you see in front of you, just stick the script.

They started to dumb down State education about 40 yrs ago in my opinion, and look what we have now. It takes not less than 3 generations to expunge critical thinking, initiative, inquisitiveness, the 3Rs which should come from having received a good standard of education. And we are now left with uni students demanding "safe spaces" and objecting to those who shake their heads in disagreement in debates, banning feminists such as Greer and Bindel. Ridiculous.

One ridiculous thing I have read on here is that EU migration 'gives' the UK money in the form of taxes.

Can you share your evidence base for its ridiculousness, and explain why UCL have got it wrong?

UCL is receiving 'soft money' from EU. This is akin to all the clinical studies conduct in our prestigious places of learning, i.e. confectionary giants and food manufacturers giving grants to come up with results that do not put their products into a bad light. Are you not aware of the significant level of data fraud and misconduct in clinical trials and academic research, and it's on the rise too.

You cannot present a funder of research with results that supports another, antagonistic, viewpoint. It would be career suicide.

I think someone upthread mentioned that she worked for the DH but obviously cannot speak about the data she sees. Those are the people - in any govt dept - who know the true numbers, before those numbers are massaged. But also applying a bit of commonsense does not go amiss.

Lana, I asked if you have data to support your assertions. Do you?

Dismissing any research or data that does not support your position as fraudulent or lies, without providing any evidence of your own assertions, is a questionable debating technique at best.

Equally, it would be helpful if you could let us know which aspects of the UCL report you feel the researchers have falsified.

Oh yes UCL have lied because they get "soft money", so does the OUMO, the ONS and even the right wing Migration watch, even factcheck must recieve it because they validate they findings that immigrants are net fiscal contributors.

Seriously fear for the future of the UK when people who are seemingly engaged in a reasonable debate give lots of ad hominem attacks and then claim to be persecuted, when anecdotal experience is given precedent over macro economic data gathered by more than one source. Examples of business, and the hugely important car industry definately prefering EU status are ignored and quotes from a former CEO of Vauxhall are given precedent over ones from the current from Vauxhall , BMW, Honda and the industry spokesman.

Even fairly sound economic analysis, backed by others analysis and precedent is dismissed in favour of fanciful ideas of negotiating trade deals which are entirely favoiurable for the UK because "We are the 5th biggest economy" ignoring the fact that bigger economies than ours are in trade agreements that don't operate the way that people are promoting, OR the fact that "5th biggest economy" means naff all when California alone is the 8th and surpasses that of Russia and Italy.

Information that is provided is dismissed as "biased" even when it comes from more than one source, and then nothing provided in counter, yet the remain campaign are attacked for the paucity of their arguments.

Its quite laughable really.

Madam, dismissing one's own observations - which even govt figures are well behind - is the position of a Useful Idiot. Call me questionable, but how on earth do you get through life when everything has to be brought to you in the form of data. Soon you will not be able to take a step forward without some organisation's stats. That's today's uni education I suppose.

If you were thinking of going to a holiday resort, would you trust someone who had been there 3 months ago and whose appraisal is Average, or would you believe an online survey showing a 9/10 score?

Sixty years ago when I was 20, virtually everyone in my village was massacred.
Oh really, could you send me a link? - That's you.

Whereas most people would be interested to hear further about this, never doubting that the event happened. I suspect the reason for this is because people's general knowledge base and observations nowadays are miserably poor, so simple analysis like putting 2 and 2 together and coming up with the likelihood that the answer might be 4 cannot be relied on.

ONS' paymaster is the govt of the day. The only OUMO I know is the African singer.

We may well crash and burn if we exit the EU, but learning from you guys is impossible because you are all so fixed in being Right you are not actually imparting much info. And of course some of you continue to be arseholes. Hovercraft appears to have a screw loose, and looking back a few pages that is how she has been all the way through.

Lana - I did a long post with the sole intention of imparting as much information as I could, but I was basically chased off this thread by Spring and her friends. I came to the conclusion that they didn't actually want facts or information at all, and after trying very hard to stay level headed in a thread that had descended into playground level childishness, I couldn't take it any more. This is quite consistent with what I have seen from most Brexiters on Facebook and Twitter. They say they want facts, you try and give them facts, and they just abuse you.

Am I Madam?

The trouble with 'observation' when it comes to economic impact is that it's not just one's own biases at play, but the fact that your experience is not universal. None of our experiences are universal. That's why data is useful - to help us check our assumptions and biases.

When you dismiss evidence as falsified or fraudulent, the onus is on you to explain why.

You're not talking about a subjective hotel experience, or incontrovertible personal experience of an atrocity. You've made a claim about the economy and public finances as a whole - that EU migrants take out more than they put in. Unless you're the accountant or processing the tax returns for every EU migrant, this isn't one where personal experience is going to be able to help you much in actually knowing whether your claim is true. This is one where data is actually important - you made a statement about numbers. What are the numbers?

It concerns me that you can't tell the difference, to be honest.

OUMO is the Oxford University Migration Observatory.

"The only OUMO I know is the African singer."

And yet you are on the internet (where you could search it up) discussing migration and brexit, crticising other people's knowledge? Oh and also pretending to be "undecided" nope, don't believe you.

The use of Disablist language is against MN Talk Guidelines. I have reported Hovercraft's use of a very offensive word.

Correction, I have reported lurked101's violation.