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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think saying house prices could crash if we brexit will be a plus for many

418 replies

feellikeahugefailure · 30/03/2016 07:31

The BoE and other banks say this as if it is universally bad news. If it stops the vast amount of foreign speculation on UK property then many will see it as a good thing.

Even if you own your own home, its paper gains unless you sell it. So even homeowners might want prices to fall as otherwise their children may never own a home.

OP posts:
HelpfulChap · 06/04/2016 06:44

Square

I agree. A Brexit vote will almost certainly prompt another Scottish Independence vote.

Even we vote to Stay, I think the SNP will continue to manoeuvre for a break away.

I am all for self determination but it does seem odd that many Scots don't want to be 'ruled' by Westminster but are happy to be 'ruled' by Brussels.

SquareDolphin · 06/04/2016 06:44

^ I meant I agree with you about statistics which is why credible sources are so important.

I'm actually voting to remain. And in the event of a Brexit vote, my Scottish mates are planning to vote in expected Indyref#2 for Scotland to remain/rejoin EU, even though they voted to remain in UK last time...which is kind of what you were implying, I think.

SquareDolphin · 06/04/2016 06:48

helpful yes we live in really historical times for the UK.

It will be very interesting to see what happens and either way I hope things turn out well for my beloved country.

HelpfulChap · 06/04/2016 06:48

Yes. I was.

Thing is although I am 100% in favour of Brexit I am grateful to live in democracy where people are entitled to their opinion and I fully respect their views even if I don't agree with them.

If the UK leaves I think other nations like The Netherlands won't be far behind.

BudsBeginingSpringinSight · 06/04/2016 08:50

Wasn't there someone who once said, " Everyone thinks they have the pretiest wife at home"

If the EX Head of MI6 says our intelligence op are excellent I would tend to believe him, ie a man who has been in the job, knows his subject inside out and this is his experience and views.

"the truth about Brexit from a national security perspective is that the cost to Britain would be low. Brexit would bring two potentially important security gains: the ability to dump the European Convention on Human Rights - remember the difficulty of extraditing the extremist Abu Hamza of the Finsbury Park Mosque - and more importantly, greater control over immigration from the European Union."

"the truth about Brexit from a national security perspective is that the cost to Britain would be low. Brexit would bring two potentially important security gains: the ability to dump the European Convention on Human Rights - remember the difficulty of extraditing the extremist Abu Hamza of the Finsbury Park Mosque - and more importantly, greater control over immigration from the European Union."

"Dearlove was also highly critical of the EU's intelligence bodies, describing them as the "leakiest ships of state" and colanders riddled with holes. He said: "The larger powers cannot put their best intelligence material into such colanders. The British voice is nonetheless very influential because its intelligence and security community is, an will certainly remain, the strongest and most mature in Europe."

BudsBeginingSpringinSight · 06/04/2016 08:52

Pouring cold water over claims by Prime Minister David Cameron that the UK is more secure inside the bloc, he said that Europe could not turn its back on Britain if it left the EU because London's intelligence services "give much more" than they get in return. Dearlove led the Secret Intelligence Service from 1999 to 2004.

merrymouse · 06/04/2016 09:08

If the EX Head of MI6 says our intelligence op are excellent I would tend to believe him, ie a man who has been in the job, knows his subject inside out and this is his experience and views.

I'm not sure what would be more worrying, the ex head of MI6 saying the organisation he was in charge of was a complete load of rubbish or the ex head of MI6 claiming that he had his finger on the pulse of what was happening in the secret service 12 years after he had apparently left the job.

Either way, I have no idea how you judge who has the 'best' secret service in Europe. May there could be a competition like the Eurovision Song Contest, but very, very secret.

BudsBeginingSpringinSight · 06/04/2016 09:26

well Merrry if you think the poor eastern bloc countries with whom we share the EU now have strong intelligence so be it, but as he says - your only as strong as the weakest links in your chain.

How is it worrying that the ex head has an idea of whats going on still! how bizarre!

He is in a great position of freedom to comment isn't he.
Merry maybe you have not been following any of this or any news on it, I have, because the terror attacks concern me, its been noted, however time and time again how strong our intellegence services are.

Even after Paris it was noted repeatedly, in the face of a gun assault like the Bataclan etc we do not have the fire arm capability to take on ak47's, BUT the positive comments were - we have strong intelligence services and better gun controls in the UK. We also supposedly have better community relations - not without need of improvement but better than France. IE the Muslim community to come forward and warn us of pending issues. I could go on, but frankly I cant be bothered.

HelpfulChap · 06/04/2016 09:35

The UK intelligence services foiled at least 7 terror attacks last year and more than 50 since 7/7.

Impressive.

lurked101 · 06/04/2016 11:36

I agree the British are good at intelligence, just making the point that the French are also very good at it, and the collective level of intelligence from the EU is very useful. Dearlove's comments, well the former head of GCHQ and the UK head of Europol countered those so there are varying opinions within the secret services.

Oh btw, the data on the UK having the 32nd largest refugee population came from the UNHCR (using their mid year trends from 2015) and the OECD.

"Lies, dammed lies and statistics" is only ever quoted by people who can't back up their arguments with evidence. You might as well say the moon is made of cheese because you think it is.

merrymouse · 06/04/2016 11:53

Merry maybe you have not been following any of this or any news on it, I have, because the terror attacks concern me, its been noted, however time and time again how strong our intellegence services are.

I was in France days after and strangely all the news and discussion was about the achievements of the French security forces. You tend to get different perspectives in different countries.

Call me silly but I also noticed that we had to rely on French police to provide security at the French ports, because the bit before you get on the ferry is in France.

You are missing the point. We could have the best security services in the entire world but that isn't much use if you can't also get information and help from other countries. That requires diplomacy and deals, even with poor ex eastern bloc countries and countries like Italy and Greece.

We can leave the EU and we will still have to do those deals. The only question is whether the UK has marginally more power inside or outside the EU. Obviously nobody really knows the answer to that question, and probably never will because things will move on and the situation will change (and there will probably be more referendums). However the UK won't transform into a different country because it leaves the EU (leaving aside increased pressure for Scottish independence). For one thing many people in the UK are quite pro human rights.

merrymouse · 06/04/2016 12:04

How is it worrying that the ex head has an idea of whats going on still! how bizarre!

It's in the name - secret service.

BudsBeginingSpringinSight · 06/04/2016 12:38

I was in France days after and strangely all the news and discussion was about the achievements of the French security forces

I imagine they would be. The security forces had a very difficult - (*understatement) crisis on their hands and they were brave to enter the Bataclan and face down the terrorists. However in the aftermath, there is always critism of where things went wrong and can be improved, for instance it took them hours to enter the Bataclan etc there was also lack of information sharing between Paris and Brussels, the terrorsists were stopped several times but never recognised information was not given out to check points quickly enough, But I digress.

The point is - I feel Dearlove is in a perfect position to give his views on security he has no obligations anywhere or pressure to conform. It makes perfect sense to me, that our UK Intelligence is going to be stronger than corrupt former Communist block countries. Dearlove will have been on the inside and know of leaks, worries and so on that have gone on. I have read, seen, heard many a time, that we the UK give much intelligence to the rest of the EU. Therefore I don't feel, this will change much in the event of Brexit.

HelpfulChap · 06/04/2016 13:08

Nice post Buds

lurked101 · 06/04/2016 13:20

However, Dearlove did retire 12 years ago, which means that his experience is neither up to date, which means his expertise is slightly outdated, nor of dealing with contemporaneous issues such as ISIS, in fact when dealing with similar Al Queda threats Dearlove was heavily criticised.

When the former head GCHQ and the current head of Europol say that British intelligence would be compromised then their opinions carry equal gravitas as Dearloves, although of course there are issues with theirs too.

All in all, the security argument is far more open to debate, due to the conjectural nature of the evidence.

TFPsa · 06/04/2016 14:13

Back to the question, I doubt that brexit would seriously impact houses in either direction.

But, yes, broadly speaking falling house prices would be good news for about the same number as people as it'd be bad for. That must be right.

merrymouse · 07/04/2016 15:04

Again you are missing the point buds. Both Greece and Italy might be an absolute shower in terms of security, as might all the ex eastern bloc countries.

However, strategically the UK still needs to work with them to protect its own security interests because both countries are just across the med from countries which don't share aligned interests or values.

In many ways it's quite nice being a little island on the north east corner of Europe, far away from all the trouble spots. However, if we don't look after the countries that form a handy buffer, they might not be there to look after us.

merrymouse · 07/04/2016 15:05

Um... north west corner of Europe....

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